Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Hawthorne: Illinois Derby Day


HAW Two:
#1 Space Traveler 3/5 (70%) .20 DQ
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Haw Four:
#2 Harborton 1/1 (50%) .60
#4 Da Nella 3/1 (25%) 5.70
A cheap double would hook up both these with the chaos race that follows, and two $6 tickets would cover a lot of territory.
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Haw Five: chaos on the turf
Minimum odds: 7/1 Luck, trip and pace will determine the winner.
The following have, collectively, 70% of the chance:
#1A My Sonny Boy 7/1 (12%) .50
#3 Hapman 7/1 (12%)
#4 Bluegrass Bull 8/1 (11%) .50
#5 Fire Cloud 7/1 (12%)
#6 Uno Pecador 8/1 (11%)
#7 Ultimate X 7/1 (12%)
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HAW Six
50-cent P5 begins.
Chaos reins: about 80% coverage with the following:
#1 One for Biscuit 10/1 (9%)
#2 Rich City Dude 6/1 (14%)
#3 Sweetest Rhythm 7/2 (22%)
#5 Dakota Milkshake 6/1 (14%)
#8 Ghetto Cat 10/1 (9%)
"Wasted" bets are the bane of the pick player. Here are two cheap P3 tickets with no "cross-betting" at all.
$6 P3 play: 1-2-3-5-8-11 w 2 w 13 (20% chance)
and/or 1-2-3-5-8-11 w 6 w 5 (5% chance)
And here's one of several possible P5s with no cross-betting.
$24 P5 play 1-2-3-5-8-11 w 2 w 13 w 8-6 w 1A-2-8-9 (5% chance)
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HAW Seven: Sixty Sails
Pretty simple race with a short field.
#2 Brushed by a Star 3/5 (62%) 1.60
#6 Disposable Pleasure 2/1 (33%) 1.20
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HAW Eight: Illinois Derby
A huge field, but not a chaos race, with only 3 main contenders.
#5 Ground Transport 7/2 (22%) 3.50
#12 Siete de Oros 5/1 (16%) 9.00
#13 Departing 3/2 (40%) 1.90
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HAW Nine
Horse listed comprise an 80% chance altogether.
#4 Gold Double 5/1 (16%)
#6 Catch the Train 4/1 (20%)
#7 Proud Jackson 5/1 (16%)
#8 Holy Fever 5/2 (30%)
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HAW Ten (maiden claimer)
Usually we don't bother with these, but this chaos race completes the 50-cent P5, so... but it IS a chaos race and the 1-entry is absolutely not worth the 2/1 morning line. The horses below capture 83% of the win chance.
1A: Lavender Chris: 4/1 if with his partner the #1 (20%) 1.70
#2 Emma Baby 6/1 (14%) 3.60
#7 My Contender 8/1 (11%)
#8 Unchartered Territory 6/1 (14%) 7.50
#9 In Red's Honor 6/1 (14%) 2.80
#10 Silverstrikeexpress 9/1 (10%) 5.30



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