Aqueduct Nov. 3

Selected races from a fairly awful card. Reports are that the Big A survived the storm in okay shape, unlike so many places close to the water.

AQU Race One ... (longshot)
Only a maiden turf, but very contentious. The best horse, #8 Prime Devil, has four good ones to beat and therefore we believe the morning line of 5/2 is a very bad price. Also too low on the line is #12 Comstock Prize, listed at 7/2 and coming back from a year's rehab under a new trainer. Seriously? 7/2? Meanwhile, watch the R1 and R2 horses, which could offer value if the crowd lets them drift off. Every once in a while one of these will jump up and crush the chalk players.

• 1-(B) 7/1
• 2-(D) 12/1
• 3-(R1) 20/1
• 7-(B) 7/1
• 8-(A) 9/2
• 9-(B) 7/1
• 10-(R2) 15/1
• 11-(B) 7/1
• 12-(R2) 10/1

AQU Race Two ... (chalky)
A dirt claimer with two contenders, three maybes, and four no-ways.

• 4-(A) 2/1
• 5-(E) 8/1
• 6-(E) 8/1
• 8-(D) 5/1
• 9-(B) 5/2 Win 2.55

AQU Race Three ... (mega-longshot)
Eleven horses in here and nearly all of them have a shot. The minimum price on the better horses hovers north of 7/1 so choke on that, Mr. Chalky. Would you like to place a side bet that the crowd drives one of these down to 3/1? Races designated "longshot" have been producing winners that average 8/1.

• 1-(D) 14/1
• 4-(C) 10/1
• 5-(B) 8/1
• 6-(C) 10/1
• 7-(C) 10/1
• 8-(A) 7/1
• 9-(B) 8/1 Win 3.50
• 10-(B) 8/1
• 11-(B) 8/1

Races Four and Five .... pass

AQU Race Six, the Red Smith Turf ... (chalky)
Some players believe that all turf races are longshot affairs, but this contest says otherwise. It's at a mile and three-eighths, and hardly anybody's got the lungs for that. The morning line on the favorite, #5 Boisterous, we think is self-destructing at 3/5. Fair odds would be 1/1. A probable pass unless one of the other two below offer giant overlays.

• 1-(C) 2/1
• 3-(E) 11/1
• 5-(A) 1/1 Win 0.35

AQU Race Seven ... (chalky)
The entry is 10/1 if one of 'em scratches. We think #10, Classic R and B, is a worthy even-money horse, and would love to get the morning line.

• 1-(E) 5/1
• 1A-(E) 5/1
• 10-(A) 1/1 Win 2.15
• 13-(E) 10/1

Race Eight ... go home early.