BREEDER'S CUP Saturday 2012

Breeder's Cup Saturday, Santa Anita

"Make good bets, and luck will eventually find you."

• Fair odds, picks and comments for the big day at Santa Anita.
• The odds below are meant to be minimums. 
• We are not trying to pick winners here, but to help players identify winning bets. We'll start with the third race.
• The designations (A) (B) (C) etc. are meant to separate the horses by ability and to provide quick ideas of risk levels to exotics players.

RACE 3 (NON-BC) THE DAMASCUS SPRINT

This shapes up as a chalky race with two main contenders and a bunch of yeah-maybe moderate longshots. #5 Private Zone is listed at 5/1 and would be a mighty fine bet at that price. He's our top pick.

• 1-Brother Francis (D) 6/1
• 3-Politicallycorrect (D) 6/1 Win 3.40
• 4-Mile High Magic (D) 6/1
• 5-Private Zone (A) 5/2
• 7-Sir Bond (B) 3/1

RACE 4, JUVENILE TURF MILE

When the two best horses share 7/1 odds, you know you're in a longshot race. #13 is only for those who'll get first-grass-in-the-Breeders'-Cup horses, and we'd want a big overlay even on that 15/1.

• 2-Artigiano (A) 7-1
• 3-George Vancouver (C) 11/1 Win 9.30
• 5-Fantastic Moon (C) 11/1
• 6-Dundonnel (A) 7/1
• 8-Balance the Books (C) 11/1
• 9-Noble Tune (B) 8/1
• 10-Joha (C) 10/1
• 13-Know More 15/1

RACE 5, FILLY & MARE SPRINT

#9 Groupie Doll was assigned an amazing 1/1 in the morning line.  We agree that she's the best horse. But those kinds of odds are right only for horses with no viable competition. Here, the #3 and #10 could beat her with their best trips, and a pace meltdown might enable any of the others on this list for a big score. We're not going to get our price on Groupie, so we'll follow the others as the board lights up.

• 1-Teddy's Promise (D) 7/1
• 3-Dust and Diamonds (B) 4/1
• 6-Turbulent Descent (D) 7/1
• 8-Musical Romance (E) 12/1
• 9-Groupie Doll (A) 3/1 Win 0.70
• 10-Switch (B) 4/1

RACE 6, DIRT MILE

Not the most competitive race on the card, and I wouldn't look for a wild longshot here, unless one of the horses below gets loose on the tote. What is it about #3 Jersey Town that he gets no respect? Is it his name? After winning the Cigar at 34-1, he taught New York bettors another lesson in the Kelso. Here he's the 3rd best horse, and so has a decent chance. #6 Shackleford gives his all every time, but we still need a decent price before we'd back him.

1-Rail trip (E) 12/1

3-Jersey Town (C) 5/1

6-Shackleford (B) 7/2

7-Emcee (A) 3/1

8-Tapizar (D) 7/1 Win 15.30

RACE 7, DOWNHILL TURF SPRINT

Extremely competitive scramble on Santa Anita's signature sprint course. Note that #11 Mizdirection carries a 20/1 morning line despite being 2-for-2 on this course. She's our top pick, but the #1, #12 and #13 aren't far behind this filly. Nobody on this list would be a total surprise, and the tote is sure to give a bargain somewhere.

• 1-California Flag (B) 9/1
• 3-Great Mills (D) 12/1
• 4-Tale of a Champion (E) 16/1
• 6-Upgrade (D) 12/1
• 7-Reneesgotzip (E) 15/1
• 8-Great Attack (E) 15/1
• 9-Bridgetown (B) 9/1
• 10-Corporate Jungle (D) 12/1
• 11-Mizdirection (A) 7/1 Win 6.90
• 12-Chosen Miracle (B) 9/1
• 13-Unbridled's Note (B) 9/1

RACE 8, THE JUVENILE ROUTE

Sure anything can happen with two-year-olds, but there's one monster here.

• 4-Shanghai Bobby (A++) 3/5 Win 1.30

RACE 9, 1-1/2 MILE TURF
Two horses stand a good chance, and four have a reasonable chance.
We disagree vehemently with the 12/1 morning line on Treasure Beach and believe him to be a main threat. Conversely, we see Shareta as a second tier runner, and not a co-favorite. The #9 Dullahan we see as having no realistic chance, and can't figure what he's doing here.

• 1- Point of Entry (A) 7/2
• 3-St. Nicholas Abby (D) 8/1
• 4-Treasure Beach (A) 7/2
• 5-Shareta (D) 8/1
• 8-Kindergarten Kid (D) 8/1
• 12-Trailblazer (D) 8/1

RACE 10, THE SPRINT
Absurdly competitive! Seven "A" horses and a couple of "B" horses. Amazombie is the early favorite, but any odds under 9/1 are too low. You can't predict the winner in a race like this. What you can do is to handicap the underbet horses, maybe mix up some exotics, and hope to get lucky. Racing luck and pace will determine the winner among these evenly matched horses. Trinniberg and Poseidon's Warrior will probably lead at first call. Hamazing Destiny and Coil have the best late umph.

• 2-Jimmy Creed (B) 11/1
• 3-Gantry (A) 9/1
• 4-Coil (A) 9/1
• 5-Justin Phillip (A) 9/1
• 6-Fast Bullet (C) 14/1
• 7-The Lumber Guy (B) 11/1
• 8-Capital Account (A) 9/1
• 9-Trinniberg (C) 15/1 Win 13.70
• 10-Smiling Tiger (A) 9/1
• 11-Amazombie (A) 9/1
• 12-Hamazing Destiny (A) 9/1
• 13-Posidon's Warrior (D) 20/1

RACE 11, THE TURF MILE
Here's a short field for a turf race, but it's highly competitive, with three "A" horses.
The morning line suggests that  Wise Dan and Excelebration would be co-favorites. We agree but add French challenger Moonlight Cloud. There's a 60% chance that one of these three will take down the $1 million-plus prize, and we don't see a significant advantage for any one of them.  Mr. Commons and Obviously each have about a 15% chance.  The morning line on Moonlight Cloud is 6-1, which would make for a nice bet, if the tote allows. There are no speed figures on this horse, they don't believe in them in La Belle France. That and the fact that she is a she will probably lead to her being underbet.

• 1-Mr. Commons (C) 6/1
• 2-Wise Dan (A) 4/1 Win 1.80
• 3-Obviously (C) 6/1
• 6-Excelebration (A) 4/1
• 7-Wilcox Inn (D) 15/1
• 8-Suggestive Boy (E) 30/1
• 9-Moonlight Cloud (A) 4/1

RACE 12, THE CLASSIC
Considering its $5 million purse, this isn't a very competitive race. Five horses have virtually no chance. That leaves us with a field of 7 and a "normal" race scenario. We expect that over time the winners of such races will pay an average of 5-1
The morning line is set at 9/5 on Game On Dude. Brisnet's ranking implies an odds line that is much in agreement. We believe Game On's chances are at most 20%. Although he can certainly win this, backers of C-rated horses at low odds have been terrible bets.  Certainly the list of who can win must include him, but not at such odds. We believe him to be the third best horse in the race.
If too much money flows to Game On Dude, that may create opportunities to back the other horses, especially Flat Out and Fort Larned, both of whom rated A in our system. Acceptable odds on either are 3-1, and there are four credible longshots too, their minimum playable odds listed below.

• 2- Flat Out (A) 3-1
• 3-Alpha (E) 20-1
• 4-Fort Larned (A) 3-1 Win 9-1
• 5-Game On Dude (C) 5-1
• 10-Ron the Greek (D) 7-1
• 11-Much Macho Man (D) 10-1
• 12-To Honor and Serve (D) 10-1