Belmont Oct. 27

Belmont Oct. 27

These horses ain't afraid of no hurricane.

Overall, 3 tracks: $40 bet, $42 returned.

$12 bet, $18 returned, 3 wins.

BEL 1 (longshot)

Pick-3 and DD playable.
Double (A) 2x1 = $2 (B) 3x2 =6  (C) 8x3 =$24
Pick 3 (A) 2x1x3 = $6.
Like many turf races, this race competitive and promising for price players.
2-(C) 11/1
*4-(C) 11/1 Win 11.10
5-(C)10/1
6-(A) 5/1
7-(A) 5/1
9-(C) 11/1
11-(C) 11/1 Show 4.40
12-(B) 6/1 Place 4.30
... Exactly one horse offered proper odds, and luckily for us, he won.  We listed the favorite #7  as a 5/1 shot, the crowd's price was 5/2. With the scratch of his main rival his odds should have been more like 7/2. But our method steered us away from 6 bad bets in this race.

BEL 2 (very chalky)

2-(B) 3/1
5-(C) 5/1
6-(A) 1/1 Place 0.25
... When the favorite's odds drift this low, all is lost.  The #1 Guilt Trip blew 'em away at 7/1, but due to the extreme odds scenario, we passed.

BEL 3 (longshot)

A lot depends on the improbable scenario of #15 getting in.
3-(A) 7/2 Win 0.55
5-(B) 8/1
11-(B) 8/1
*12-(B) 8/1 48.00
*15-(A) 7/2 8.10
... We liked the #12 and  #15 as overlays, but we bet little or not at all in odds-on races.

BEL 4 Pass.

Far too many horses with no experience over distance/surface. A  guessing game.

BEL 5 (chalky)

4-(C) 7/1 Show 4.60
*5-(A) 3/2 Win 2.40
8-(C) 7/1 1.70
*11-(B) 4/1 Place 8.50
... We liked this rare favorite overlay, and the overlaid #11 came in to complete a 24-1 exacta.

BEL 6 (chalky)

Featuring the chalkiest favorite on the card, from out point of view.
2-(A) 1/1
8-(C) 9/1
10-(B) 5/1
11-(C) 12/1
.... Scratch of the dominant horse, so we passed.

BEL 7 Pass.

BEL 8 Turnback The Alarm Handicap (normal)
Ah, the late pick-3. (A) ticket 2x2x2 = $8
Really expensive to cover the (B) horses at 5x5x4 = $100.
1-(B) 7/1  Not exactly a screamer at this distance, so why 4/1 in the morning? Place 4.20
2-(A) 4/1 Now here's a horse who's found her distance. 2.60
*3-(C) 11/1 11.60
5-(B) 5/1 Morning says 15/1, but trainer brings 'em back ready. Show 12.50
6-(B) 7/1 The 5/2 line is ridiculous. Not superior to others.
*8-(A) 3/1 Huge win, followed by vacation.  May need a race or two. Win 3.00
... Two worthy bets here, their prices suggesting a straight exacta.  The win-bet payoff allowed for a small profit to cover.

BEL 9 The Bold Ruler (longshot)

Intriguing and competitive. No horse should be low odds. Our two (A) horses have radically different predictions via the morning line. Opportunity?
1-(B) 8/1 Big flashy figs and two wins at Belmont. Win 4.30
3-(B) 7/1 Negative trainer move but two wins at Belmont.
4-(A) 9/2 but 8/1 in the morning line. Show 3.80
*5-(C) 12/1 67.00
*6-(C) 12/1 29.95
8-(A) 9/2 but 5/2 in the morning line. 1.50
*9-(C) 9/1 10.60
10-(B) 7/1 Capable, but a bad bet at morning line of 7/2.
... Well, we picked out the #8, Caixa Eletronica, as a false favorite at 3/2 and he was overwhelmed here. We then took a home run swing at some outragouse longshot overlays and missed.  #1 wired 'em at 4-1 but still, this kind of bet looks good right now, but loses over time.

BEL 10 (longshot)

Only a claimer, but definitely the most competitive race on the card. Let's hope the rain holds off and this one stays on the grass. Big longshot potential. It's not often that the best horses in a race are worth no lower than 7/1.
Horse #12, 7/2 in the morning line, is not a contender in our book.

1-(C) 15/1 11.20
2-(A) 7/1 Remarkable consistency if you toss the slop. But not worth 4/1 as in morning line. Place 5.40
3-(B) 11/1 we sure don't buy the morning figure of 5/1
4-(C) 15/1 Win 5.10
*6-(C) 15/1 Show 28.25
7-(B) 9/1 A notch below the best, but capable of a nice payday at better odds. 5.50
*9-(B) 11/1 but 30/1 in the morning. It would take his best race, but that's possible. 75.00
10-(A) 7/1 Awesome the last time he felt Belmont grass under his hooves. 7.70
13-(B) 11-1 Could win if in, and lousy dirt race may fool some bettors.

... We just couldn't back the winner at those odds. We absolutely hated the favorite, who finished near last at 2-1.  The #6 and #9 were wild overlays, and the #6 showed and paid more than the favorite did.  The trifecta paid 531-1.  But of course with 7 horses to bet the box would have cost $210.