CANTERBURY JULY 18

RACE ONE
What's the deal with Tammy and Captain Canaveral?
He's obviously the best horse. She's dropping him after a win. By most measures, his races keep getting better. Is she trying to steal a purse, or dump a sour horse? Her record in class drops is 1-for-17.
If you believe Tammy's dumping, then the choice is Screen Writer (ML 7/2). The turf race will obscure his form a bit. At 5/1, he's our choice. He's as good as Wham but will fetch higher odds. He won an allowance at Iowa, was raised above his level and showed, then was stupidly put on the turf. Back on the dirt, he's got a long shot here. Even idiot trainers win with the right horse.


RACE TWO
State bred maiden claimer sprint of the lowest class.
There's no dominant horse here. That means minimum odds of 5-1.

Padilla is running Huebaker, who had never contended in any call of his 3 races.
Root River Kid dq'd into a crappy second for a hopeless trainer.
Palatine General. Scott Stevens rides for Michael Biehler, a powerful combo. Palatine got out late in his last race, a route. Toss that and you see that his only fast-track sprint was a good effort and a finish just a few stides from the wire. The bad speed figure from the route will obscure his form. Palatine, unlike most in here, has show the will to compete. ML: 12:1.


RACE THREE
Two year old maiden fillies. No way should any horse be taken at cheap prices.

The ML pick is Lulengo Uno, a Mac Robertson-trained debut horse. Mac wins with 28% of his first-timers, and the breeding for LU shows 16% first time wins. This is a five-furlong race, and the breeding is for a mile or so. So don't expect tremendous speed.
That translates into a fair shot at 4-1. But we don't want a fair shot. We want to win. So we're holding out for 5-1. No way in hell we'll get it. But since this race begins the Pick-6, LU can be used there.

Mesa Mirage raced at Churchill in her debut. The fractions suggest she realized she was a racehorse late in the race, too late to do anything but pass a few horses. They also suggest that when she realizes she's facing Canterbury horses, she'll laugh all the way to the winner's circle. Further evidence: Vic and Ry are 32%.


RACE FOUR
Level four claimer.
Mac is running Prognosis Negative. The name is from the Seinfeld episode. Is the horse a joke, or is its prognosis positive?
In 9 of his last 10 races, PN has flashed speed and faded. Mr. Bell could not rate the horse in two recent sprints, so today Mr. Hebert gets to try. There's nothing to suggest he'll be any more successful than Mr. Bell. Therefore, as the favorite, PN sucks.
He has plenty of competent competition, and indeed, there should be no favorite. This is a longshot race.

Randy Rarick, a small-barn, big-percentage trainer, just claimed Little Big Time, who placed twice at CBY, if you discount a DQ. He gets Bell in the irons. The horse has run 5 recent races capable of the win here.

Biehler-Nolan are combined on Tricky Titan, who showed last time in a mediocre effort. They have a minor chance at winning and certainly should be considered at 8-1 or higher.

King of Rythym won last time, and such horses should never be let go at longshot odds. He's a talented but erratic horse who has already won two in a row. Don't be surprised!


RACE FIVE
Turf claimer
Beau Named Sue is the ML favorite. Trainer Bernie Rhone and jockey Scott Stevens are winners on the turf. Beau is a 3-1 horse, and 2-1 at CBY. You can't toss him. The question is the odds.

Tim Padilla claimed Buzz the Tower in Phoenix. He's a 3-1 turf horse. He should be no more than a point or two in odds over Beau. If Beau is 2-1 and Buzz is 6-1, bet Buzz.

Fizzy Pop has run 8 recent races well enough to win this. In the last slop-a-thon he was steadied in a miserable mud race. So that will obscure his form. Look back to his last turf race, in May in Florida. That kind of run today leaves this field back in Burnsville. As a bonus, Butler and Bernie are 21%.

Dontlaffhespaidfor would be worth a longshot flyer. He doesn't have great turf breeding. But he ran a hell of a race in his only grassy try. His jockey and trainer don't exude confidence. But at outrageous odds....

Zip Zaheri comes here from Chicago, Kentucky and the far side of the moon. His trainer is an amateur, and he's shown little on true dirt. But at a price, say 10-1, he might be worth the chance tha he will wake up against cheaper horses.

RACE SIX
Turf sprint allowance, five furlongs, winners of one.
Phil the Thrill failed a couple of times on Chicago poly, was sneaked over to hillbilly land and scored huge on real dirt. 17 lengths! Now Larry Rivelli brings him to Shakopee, where he should by all measures find an easy allowance score. He should be five or six lengths to the good when coming out of the turn. Bingo! Here's a free bingo sqaure for Pick-4 and Pick-6 players.

RACE SEVEN
Princess Elaine Turf stakes. A mile-plus on the green.
Three winners are among the contenders here.

Sahm Sweetheart has never run a bad race over the Shakopee grass. He has hardly run a bad race anywhere. He's ridden by Paul Nolan, a proven turf jock who has won on him at least 3 times. The 4-2 ML would be fair. A place bet would be high-percentage.

Blumin Beauty's turf wins were five-furlong. Trainer owns her. Maybe that and greed is clouding his judgment.

Seasahm. Mac-Bell always gets your attention. This horse stinks in Chicago, and is absolutely brilliant on the Canterbury turf at this distance. Seasahm has a major chance and has to be used here. A box with Sahm Sweetheart would be one way to begin.


RACE EIGHT
State bred maiden claimer
Timeless Fortune, the so-called favorite, is 0-for-10. The 8/5 ML is ridiculous. There is no real favorite in this race.
Tioga Cross, 0-for-11 and soon to be 0-for-12
Very Salty, speed and fade last time for a good maiden trainer. Good longshot bet.