"A" horses are high percentage winners. They can be bet profitably at chalky odds, but the best win profits occur when they go off as moderate longshots. An "A" horse at 4-1 or 5-1 is an excellent bet.
Much of the crowd's betting is based on Beyer figures. The "A" horse is not selected based on a Beyer figure, and so often enough the crowd will let this horse off as a moderate longshot.
Since the "A" horse scores about 40% of the time, use him as the top choice in exactas, trifectas, daily doubles, pick-3s etc.
"B" horses can help fill out a ticket of daily doubles, pick-3s, pick4s and pick-6s. They also return a nice profit it the crowd lets them off as longshots. But they won't return much, if any, profit if bet to win at chalky odds.
"C" horses can only be played as longshots, with an absolute minimum of 5-1. But these offer the best return on the betting dollar. Profits rise for those players patient enough to wait for a "C" horse to go off at 7-1 or 10-1 or higher. The maximum playable odds are about 25-1. The "C" horse will win 10% to 12% of the time.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
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