Plays to speed on the rail.
American Hustler 115*90 Why Asmussen using lousy jock? spd/dist, spd/rail.
Big advantage in current class. 80% early speed. 2/10 distance.
GOING OFF AT 3-1. BASICALLY FOUR CO-FAVORITES 1-3-6-7
DRIFTS BACK TO 7/2. LOOKING FOR 1-5-3- AT FIRST CALL.
PLACE, WOULD NOT PASS
Lunarpeal 115*86 place last, improving. 20% TJ, best SLR by 4 points. No E/S.
Probably in best form, but can a horse with no speed beat the bias?
Inner Light 114*81 Mott keeps dropping, seeking a score. 60% Early spd.
Zero for four at this distance.
Hunt Tex 115*88 poor last, 8% return; it took 4 races to sharpen him last time. Jacinto won on this horse years ago, the horse's only ES win on record. This LaD horse hasn't proven anything in the Crescent City.
Classic Robbery 117*87 Brilliant layoff race, then 3 declines, spd/dist. Seems to have lost early speed. Big advantage in current class. 50% early speed. Early speed is good, so is class, but what odds on a declining horse? FIGS WIN, DECLINING HORSE THEORY LOSES. FIGS THEORY AT ODDS WITH DECLINING HORSE THEORY, NO? YOU CAN'T HAVE EM BOTH.
Holidaze 113*80 Pletcher gave up 8 months ago. spd/dist. 20% early speed. This horse ran a slop race at Aqueduct and was never the same. The switch to Robbie is curious, but 5-1 would be absolute minimum.
RACE TWO, CLAIMING ROUTE
Not rating horses more than two off in class and 3 off in speed.
Chacahoula Choice 113@81, spd/dist. Has beaten better than these. GOT A TERRIBLE START AND WAS BLOCKED IN STRETCH WHEN TRIED TO MAKE A MOVE THAT WAS TOO LATE ANYWAY
Flickering World 114@82 Won last big after crazy pace tired leaders. Trainer steps up at 16%. Best career spd in last.
Five Star Secret 111@79 Won last. Best race ever, but in class 108. Trainer is 18% when rising one class, so 12-1 ML is tempting. Best career spd in last.
Pleasant Packy 112@79. Robbie's choice. Won the 2L division, failed miserably in his one try at 3L. Now Robbie's back. Probably worth 5-1. Not helped by bias. WON AT 12-1
He's A Slewvescent 111@78 Life 2/25 and rising in class for no discernible reason. Last win was cheap and sloppy.
Santonio 112@79 Has been finishing 3rd a lot in this division. Extremely slow starter who has to make up tons of ground.
RACE 3, MAIDEN CLAIMER, OVER A MILE
Donnaswalkindream 107@68 0/6. Has the distance.
Dakota Flame 107@67, 0/5, big drop, Robbie. No distance, no breeding.
NO-BRAINER EXACTA FINISH
Gosha 107@68 0/11 and rising in class. Hopeless trainer and jockey.
Fly De Peak 107@64 0/10
I. R. A Diamond 105@64 0/13
Lauren's Slick Boy 105@60 0/6
Dodaboom 105@61 0/5
Overlayed 104@59 0/10
RACE FOUR, MAIDEN TURF, SHORT SPRINT
No speed bias.
Persian 111@79 Seems to have found his distance & surface.
Don't Shoot 114@84 but not on grass. Undistinguished turf breeding. Fair odds 4-1 based on Robbie and trainer. Bias helps WON ON CLASS DESPITE FIRST TURF.
Weslinn 110@80, bias helps
Dalainey's Friend 109@71 in only.
Joubert's Gold 108@69 in only.
Brunelleschi 109@71
Evacuation Route, poor trainer and jockey but 4-1 based on turf breeding. Probably worth a toss if odds drift to 6-1 or better.
Fly De Peak 107@64 0/10
I. R. A Diamond 105@64 0/13
Lauren's Slick Boy 105@60 0/6
Dodaboom 105@61 0/5
Overlayed 104@59 0/10
RACE FOUR, MAIDEN TURF, SHORT SPRINT
No speed bias.
Persian 111@79 Seems to have found his distance & surface.
Don't Shoot 114@84 but not on grass. Undistinguished turf breeding. Fair odds 4-1 based on Robbie and trainer. Bias helps WON ON CLASS DESPITE FIRST TURF.
Weslinn 110@80, bias helps
Dalainey's Friend 109@71 in only.
Joubert's Gold 108@69 in only.
Brunelleschi 109@71
Evacuation Route, poor trainer and jockey but 4-1 based on turf breeding. Probably worth a toss if odds drift to 6-1 or better.
TOOK A SHOT AT 19-1. PLACED, RAN GREEN EARLY AND STRONG LATE.
BET WIN/PLACE AT THESE ODDS, OKAY?
RACE FIVE, MAIDEN CLAIMER, OVER A MILE...
Winner needs to keep within 3 lengths of pace. Bias against closers.
Way Too High 111@81, speed and fade.
Get A Victory 110@74, placed twice since drop. Closer fights bias.
Summers Edge 109@70 with Robbie.
Hyper Hannah 108@68, first route, lacks ES.
A Bit Bertha 108@64 Lacks ES.
Misa 110@74, first route, bad post.Lacks ES.
Our Royal Saint 109@66 and steady decline. At least has the ES. Bad post.
Wild Bushrose 106@69 Lacks ES.
Mrs. Pill 106@61 Lacks ES.
Sirrah 5/1 ML probably right, which means 8/1 minimum bet.
RACE 6 ALLOWANCE SPRINT, 2X
Speed bias.
[5] Dubai Majesty 121@96 and 5 wins! Everybody else running for second.
[7] Sweetness 'N Light 117@94, best of her life, 5 places. Bias!
[8] Geniver 116@87 8 years old, and 4/11 lately!
[3] Ms. Officer Rocket 115@90, seems outclassed.
[6] Nadeshiko 115@90
[4] Ballynoe 114@84
RACE FIVE, MAIDEN CLAIMER, OVER A MILE...
Winner needs to keep within 3 lengths of pace. Bias against closers.
Way Too High 111@81, speed and fade.
Get A Victory 110@74, placed twice since drop. Closer fights bias.
Summers Edge 109@70 with Robbie.
Hyper Hannah 108@68, first route, lacks ES.
A Bit Bertha 108@64 Lacks ES.
Misa 110@74, first route, bad post.Lacks ES.
Our Royal Saint 109@66 and steady decline. At least has the ES. Bad post.
Wild Bushrose 106@69 Lacks ES.
Mrs. Pill 106@61 Lacks ES.
Sirrah 5/1 ML probably right, which means 8/1 minimum bet.
RACE 6 ALLOWANCE SPRINT, 2X
Speed bias.
[5] Dubai Majesty 121@96 and 5 wins! Everybody else running for second.
[7] Sweetness 'N Light 117@94, best of her life, 5 places. Bias!
[8] Geniver 116@87 8 years old, and 4/11 lately!
[3] Ms. Officer Rocket 115@90, seems outclassed.
[6] Nadeshiko 115@90
[4] Ballynoe 114@84
WITH 7 MINUTES TO GO, DUBAI IS 1-5 ON THE BOARD.
BET TO PLACE ON 7 AT 5-1 RATHER THAN 2-5 ON DUBAI TO WIN.
DUBAI IS BACK AT THE START AND BEHIND HORSES...
BUT COMES THRU IN THE TURN TO FINISH WITH GENIVER
RACE 7, CHANTILLY TURF. Mile and a sixteenth.
A longshot opportunity, with the best horses having no turf experience and the turf runners being less talented than the turf virgins. The problem with the proven turf runners is, they are slow for this class of race. But then who knows how the dirt horses will react to the green stuff?
[3] Break Up (1ST) 117@92. Based on trainer, breeding 15%. Robbie's choice. 6-1
[6] Smoothcideup 114@82 Three turf races, last a just miss. 8-1
[1a} Shockin Blow (1ST) 118@91. Based on trainer, breeding 8%
[1] Silent Pipe (1ST)117@91 based on trainer, breeding 5%
[2] Milwaukee Miracle (1ST) 117@82 Based on trainer, breeding 12% Bad jock.
[7] Hear No Angel 114@82. Won last 3. Trainer angle 25%
[8] Dabbers Chief 114@81 Pure turf horse, 1/8, 2nd run in U.S. 21% angles.
[5] Rew's Blues 114@82. Just missed turf, but shorter race. (7f)
[4] Lee City Slew (1ST) 115@81 Based on trainer, breeding 11% Speed kills here.
BREAK UP IS 5-1 AT 3 MINUTES
RACE 8, ALLOWANCE SPRINT
Speed bias. A terrific speed duel is likely, possibly setting up for an upset by Turtle Creek Babe, the stretch runner. But the speed scenario:
Simplify 120@97 Asmussen brings back class runner who won maiden, declined. Six months off, his favorite jock... 2-1 ML is an outrage. 4-1 more like it. WINS 2-1
Time Well Spent 117@88, place at FG. ES
Maryville 115@94. Took off on first dirt. Queen of distance/surface. ES 2ND AT 3/2
Turtle Creek Babe 115@85 but all races on poly.
Northern Belle 115@87
Linnea 114@79
Skeptic 114@83
Jenifee 113@82 just won maiden.
RACE NINE, SARAH LANE'S OATES, TURF MILE.
Plays to off the pace runners, 3 and 4 lengths back.
A longshot race if there ever was one.
Royal Twine 111@79 first route. 3-1 based on turf, distance breeding.
RACE 8, ALLOWANCE SPRINT
Speed bias. A terrific speed duel is likely, possibly setting up for an upset by Turtle Creek Babe, the stretch runner. But the speed scenario:
Simplify 120@97 Asmussen brings back class runner who won maiden, declined. Six months off, his favorite jock... 2-1 ML is an outrage. 4-1 more like it. WINS 2-1
Time Well Spent 117@88, place at FG. ES
Maryville 115@94. Took off on first dirt. Queen of distance/surface. ES 2ND AT 3/2
Turtle Creek Babe 115@85 but all races on poly.
Northern Belle 115@87
Linnea 114@79
Skeptic 114@83
Jenifee 113@82 just won maiden.
RACE NINE, SARAH LANE'S OATES, TURF MILE.
Plays to off the pace runners, 3 and 4 lengths back.
A longshot race if there ever was one.
Royal Twine 111@79 first route. 3-1 based on turf, distance breeding.
OFF AT 17-1, THOUGHT HE WAS IN A SPRINT, LED, LIMPED HOME LAST
Tensas Palmyra 115@94 first grass, 4-1.
Sunday In The Bay 111@71. 10-1 based on turf breeding, trainer.
Tiz Hoo 110@68. Back to grass, enjoys bias. 8-1 based on trainer, breeding.
Seven Seventythree 115@82, 20-1 trainer, 7/1 breeding.
Hazel Grove 107@62 10/1 breeding.
Jetabug 115@80, but not on grass. 10/1 based on breeding.
Lightlightlight 116@87 first turf, 10/1.
Wanna Cuddle 115@84 first grass 8/1.
Key Lee 117@84 first grass, 12-1 minimum. Gone way wrong since debut.
RACE TEN ALLOWANCE SPRINT
Speed bias.
Isabella Symphoney 116@85 new trainer, jockey, has best win. 5-1, HAD TO DO TOO MUCH EARLY, FADED IN STRETCH TO BE BEAT BY FAVE...
All Star Chris 114@92, Robbie's choice. Huge maiden win. Off 5 months, only one published (slow) work and a trainer who's 9% off this kind of layoff.
Righteous Brother 115@84
Malagra's Fool 114@78, speed, fade. Bias!
Ax Man 114@83
Cajun Red 114@82 no ES.
Big Expectations 112@83, toss slop win. No ES.
Carol's Specialwon 112@81, 2/4 career.
Ideseeyouinhouston 109@72 Grandson of 49er absolutely hates to win.Won maiden on 29th try, so deserves some kind of medal for persistence. Has earned $92,000!
Tensas Palmyra 115@94 first grass, 4-1.
Sunday In The Bay 111@71. 10-1 based on turf breeding, trainer.
Tiz Hoo 110@68. Back to grass, enjoys bias. 8-1 based on trainer, breeding.
Seven Seventythree 115@82, 20-1 trainer, 7/1 breeding.
Hazel Grove 107@62 10/1 breeding.
Jetabug 115@80, but not on grass. 10/1 based on breeding.
Lightlightlight 116@87 first turf, 10/1.
Wanna Cuddle 115@84 first grass 8/1.
Key Lee 117@84 first grass, 12-1 minimum. Gone way wrong since debut.
RACE TEN ALLOWANCE SPRINT
Speed bias.
Isabella Symphoney 116@85 new trainer, jockey, has best win. 5-1, HAD TO DO TOO MUCH EARLY, FADED IN STRETCH TO BE BEAT BY FAVE...
All Star Chris 114@92, Robbie's choice. Huge maiden win. Off 5 months, only one published (slow) work and a trainer who's 9% off this kind of layoff.
Righteous Brother 115@84
Malagra's Fool 114@78, speed, fade. Bias!
Ax Man 114@83
Cajun Red 114@82 no ES.
Big Expectations 112@83, toss slop win. No ES.
Carol's Specialwon 112@81, 2/4 career.
Ideseeyouinhouston 109@72 Grandson of 49er absolutely hates to win.Won maiden on 29th try, so deserves some kind of medal for persistence. Has earned $92,000!
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