BELMONT ON BELMONT DAY

ONE: (Pick3 $96)
11-Accredit 117
7-Commandeered 117
1-Desert Key 116 looks like a trifecta box to me.
1A-Forest of Dreams 113

TWO: (Pick 4 begins on lousy, lousy race.)
6-Tiz It. Need 3-1, won't get it. Fader. Only 1 of 5 races was on fast track.
3-Bob's Star. My price 4-1
2-Zong My price: 4-1
7-Sixthirteen. My price: 4-1.

THREE: (Pick3 $12)
5-Seeking No More (112) toss last marathon.
8-Smart Enuf (110) Even if he wins, 8/5 is ridiculously low.
4-Piazza Di Spagna (111) Has figs, but never been close.

FOUR: (Pick3 $24)
8-Firejack 118 Best figs poly. Trainer stats suggest 4-1. But hated BEL in only try there.
11-Teide 118 Best figs poly.
4-Forefathers 122 most likely to place. But certainly has the class to win here.
6-Mobo 113 I'd say 6-1. Astonishing DEL wins. But first route, plus overwhelming class jump.

FIVE: (Pick 3 $24)
2-Hawkwood 109. Went way too fast in leading route. Never faced much. 4/1.
10-Revealer 112. Trainer often overreaches after maiden win.
8-Grand Treasure 115 Race 2-back would have won this one. I'd take 10-1.
5-Commissioner Chris 113 No thanks. Closed to win last, switches to jockey he hates.
4-Wonforthegoodguys 112, Won last by 5, and he's 15-1. Sharp with new trainer.
12-Benny the Waiter 114 tough, but outside post and may be pounded at windows.
1A-Yukon Gold Rush 108. Worth 7/1 even if partner scratches.

SIX: Pick6 begins ($48)
7-Benny the Bull 119. Obvious. Too obvious. 4/5? He's a closer in a sprint. Traffic trouble looms.
2-Thor's Echo 122 Best earner in the bunch, Gomez up, but should be 5/1 off long vacation.
8-Man of Danger 122. Has class, 70% chance of a good race, and he's 10-1?
4-Abraaj 120 Has the right stuff, but is class jumping. Maybe at 6/1.
1-Saint Daimon 122. 30/1 much too generous. I'd say half that.
5-Suave Jazz 119. Maybe not to win but is on 10/10 win-place streak.

SEVEN: (Pick 3 $4)
10: Vacare 120. Tough horse. Long layoff. Might need a race. Certainly no lower than 4-1.
7-Bayou's Lassie 118 Touch mare with two in a row. Maybe not the top class.
4-Ventura 119 Garrett on the turf at 10/1.Yeeeeeeeeha.
1-Lady of Venice 119. I'd definitely take the 4/1 ML. Check the wins at distance.
3-Bit O Wimsey 119. No wins at distance, minor layoff.

EIGHT: Pick4 begins ($692)
2-Indian Blessing. 119. She's the boss, but unbettable at 3/5 or whatever they do.
3-Game Face 119. Never a bad race. Top pick against the chalk.
1-Zaftig 118 Obviously getting stronger fast. If they let her slip to 5/1...


NINE: (Pick 3 $28)
5-J Be K. 118 Asmussen has finally figured out he's a sprinter. I'll take 2-1.
3-Silver Edition 117 Has class issues.
2-Ready's Image 119. 2-1? No thanks. Faced nobody last time.

TEN: Pick 4 begins ($12)
10-Dancing Forever 119. Nice form. At 5/1, would consider.
11-Stream of Gold 120. A tough one, a marathoner, not really his distance.
1-Better Talk Now 120. I'd love to see the old boy crank out one more great win. But... 10/1
7-Cougar Bay 119. Behind in a big field, nice for place and show.
5-Out of Control 120. Listed at 4/1. Cannot figure out why so low.
9-Proudinsky 120. Layoff, tons of class, 6/1.
8-Pays to Dream 119. Steadied on mush, then charged to win big. 8/1? I'm on board.

ELEVEN: (Pick3 $6. This may be the best way to play this race.)
1-Big Brown 120 Blah blah blah. I never bet the hype horse and never will. They are ALWAYS overbet.
3-Macho Again. 119 20/1 for the place finisher in the Preakness.
4-Denis of Cork 116. Sentimental favorite of this grandson of Cork, but not a good bet. Stopped winning when he rose above G3.
5-Casino Drive. 119. Awesome. May bet to win, exacta wheel as underneath.
7-Tale of Ekati 118. Nasty trip last time. 20/1 would be nice.

In sum, with BB at 2/5 or less, everybody else offers value. He probably is 70% to win the race, as the odds indicate, but what are you going to win backing him? How about the 30% chance he loses. Picking him out of the exacta on the theory of a bad trip could bring an awesome payout.


TWELVE: ($24 double)
2-Cordellian Ice112 Layoff, squeeze post.
3-Provided For 110 New better trainer, bad post, lacks class.
3-Bella Attrice 112 New awful trainer.
12-Roll the Di 112 Lousy turf trainer, 0/3 at distance.
9-Hanging on a Prayer 112 Improving. Would take 4/1
5-Dr. Jess Jr. 111 Show horse.

THIRTEEN:
1-Indian Hawk 117. 5/1 ML? I like it. Toss that Jersey fiasco.
3-Megapixel 118. Except for maiden, never a bad race, and keeps improving. 3/1.
13-Law Enforcement 117 Probably scratches, but long layoff anyhow.
14-Building New Era 117 Unfortunate post for a real contender.