SKIP AWAY

At first glance, this looks like a five-horse race.

2-Gotcha Gold 5/2.
8- Hunting 3/1
4- Better Than Bonds 4/1.
5- Frost Giant 6/1
3- Indy Wind 6/1

In head-to-head matchups over the last four races, Gotcha Gold wins 3 times.
Frost Giant wins once. In average racing speed, Gotcha is a clear winner.

In prime power, Gotcha is an 8-point winner. He is also high in class level. His last run at this distance over a fast track would obliterate the field.

But in last year's Skipaway, and in the Pegasus in 2006, Gotcha Gold faded after pace battles. This race plays to horses who can stalk the pace. Gotcha Gold must have the lead to win. There is a severe post bias out of gates 1-3 and Gotcha is in hole 2.

His most likely opponent in the early pace battle is Mr. Umphrey, an 8/1 longshot.
Mr. Umphrey has the second-best racing speed average after Gotcha Gold. He tends to fade and place, but puts up very good numbers in hot pace battles. His two tries at this distance have seen him tire badly in the stretch. But he COULD force Gotcha Gold into a pace duel.

As could many others. There is only one closer in this race, Hunting. He has a G3 win at this exact distance, and enjoys the advantage of Kent Desormeaux, who is an excellent route jockey. He has a very bad post, though, and closers rarely win on this course at this ditance.

Frost Giant may be the best of the mid-pack horses. He has won some monster races in Britain and Ireland and has proven himself on American dirt in a prep race. His trainer, Richard Dutrow, is 30% with horse who won their last race. Prado is in the irons, and together those guys win at 38%. They are at a disadvantaged post, even though it's only the #5.

Better Than Bonds tends to place at this distance, and seemingly folds in head-to-head stretch battles. None of his last 5 races are good enough to win here.

Indy Wind, to judge by pace performance, won't be anywhere near the lead until perhaps deep in the stretch. Every one of his good wins has been aided by freak paces, either fast or slow. In two races at this distance, he has showed once.

So we come down to 3 players, any of which might be bet, depending on the tote. Since we have 3, a 2-1 minimum would seem sensible...

Gotcha Gold 2-1, may survive pace battle from good post.
Frost Giant 4-1, probably will be underbet.
Hunting 6-1, could lope past panting rivals.