Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Saturday, December 15, 2007

HOLLYWOOD DECEMBER 15

RACE ONE:
GEORGE: 1-Igrid the Gambler-Better each time in in 4 races
has almost won back her sale price.
TIM: Ingrid the Gambler is favored based on her turf record. But Toll Road has more proven class. Hennessy Rose wears down in the stretch of 6-furlong races, but in this group, should hit the board. Trifecta box.


Shriek at 15-1. His internal fractions were screaming but I didn't see that until he was at the gate.



RACE TWO:
GEORGE: In Daddy's Honor only one here to have done anything.
TIM: In Daddy's Honor looks like the no-brainer at a short price. But Tis R Tanner listed at 30/1 has a shot. His sire makes 40% winners first time out. It wouldn't be out of the question to play them both, and get your money back or make a big score.
In Daddy's Honor (4/5) finished 2nd to Hawaiian Afleet (4/1)

RACE THREE:
GEORGE: SiChimi- The last will scare off the rubes who will not see the big drop. Denied and Plan For Fun underneath.
TIM: SiChimi and Barclay Drive in a box, based on class. This will be Plan For Fun's 20th race -- this year. Jeez, Knapp, give a claimer a break.

Herbie Love, who I specifically dissed, won at 16-1


Mitchell claimed Si Chimi in October, after he ran the races of his life. He raced the horse over his head three times without making a lot of money, and now is willing to admit that Si Chimi really is a $12,000 horse.
Barclay Drive is being dropped a class, a 27% move for his trainer.
Loving Type inherited place last time after a super hot pace wore down his betters.
Plan For Fun has only won lower races.
Unless they've milkshaked Herbie Love he has no shot.
Denied might be dismissed if he hadn't been claimed by Mullens.
Latitude hates Hollywood.

Scenario: There is very little speed here, and Latitude may get the lead nobody else wants. Herbie Love, Barclay Drive and Si Chimi will make backstretch moves. Barclay Drive, Plan for Fun, Si Chimi and Denied will surge in the stretch.

RACE FOUR:
GEORGE: Lousy field but take Dr. Zaentz in the multi race
stuff. Like to bet names? Rummysecret War.
TIM: Love that name! The race sucks, and I wouldn't bet any real cash, but as a flyer I'd say... Neil Drysdale plus Garrett Gomez equal Dancing Wildfire in the winner's circle.
Scratched
RACE FIVE:
GEORGE: Ready Maid-Winner of 3/4 will not be affected by what is not as big a jump as it first seems. Read the conditions.
TIM: At first I said: Caressive, Down and Zenyatta in the box. Down is the key horse, based on competition against winners. I don't like Ready Maid's speed figs. But she's 4/5 on "dirt" and certainly doesn't warrant the 20-1 ML. Thanks for a good longshot play.
This is an interesting and complex race. Likely scenario:
Quickandquietqueen leads them into the backstretch. Quite A Stormcat will be pushing her along, and Caressive and Oakhill Girl will be there too. The leader will almost certainly fade, and the stretch runners are: Caressive, Ready Maid, Oakhill Girl, Down and Zenyatta. It would cost $12 to drop 'em all into a dime superbox. Zenyatta and Ready Maid actually have the best late moves, and they would make quite an exacta box, too.

By race time, I agreed with the crowd that Zenyatta was worth 6/5


RACE SIX:
GEORGE: Warrens Attack Cat. Did well against this after running over his head before.
TIM: Another fine $2 betting oppt'y. Kissin the Cobra, based on switch to Talamo and best early speed.
George nailed him at 9/2
RACE SEVEN:
GEORGE: Fast Thought-2 good races in 2 tries.
TIM: Only Deadshot Keen has recent turf form, but he's stuck in an outside gate. Chancellor has the turf class, but is laid off, as are most of the other horses in the race. Smooth and Savvy is fast in the stretch, but has no proven turf form. Victorian Prince looks like the sneaky longshot to me. Maybe it's the Irish turf breeding.
Fast Thought at 1/1.

RACE EIGHT:
GEORGE: Country Star on top who has a G1 win. Spritely, Grace and Power and Set play turn $2.40 into $30 or so.
TIM: Since I had no good ideas of my own, I'll play yours.

RACE NINE:
GEORGE: Adarlyn Cat- As long as you do not buy into bounces
TIM: I do. Excessive B&B wire.

Excessive did wire 'em at 2-1.


RACE 1O:
GEORGE: Madame Kiawah -only thing worth watching in this race.
TIM: Absolutely agree. Will wake up when she sights the wire.

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