Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Saturday, December 22, 2007

TURF "PARADISE" DECEMBER 22

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RACE ONE: 5.5 dirt. Early speed, bad rail. Race rating 111.
1: Beau. (113) O&T. Dropped after optimistic claim. Can compete at this level.
2: Joe Favorite. (109) 100-1 last time, it's been a year since 10-y.o. ran well.
3: Medeival Whirl. (115) Best trainer, best horse, may bounce though.
4: Rusty Rolls. O&T. (110)Claimed higher in Seattle. Beaten 5 by Medeival Whirl.
5: Drewzac. (115)Improved with trainer, two wins in a row, drops.
6: Ocean's Choice. (115) Mud win. Improved with trainer. Top class.
7: Bubba Galpin. (109) Logical drop after good finish.
Prime 3-6-5- ex-tri play. But #1 could sneak in. Super?
Win pick: Ocean's Choice.

RACE TWO: Race rating 106. N3L
1: Classic Delini. (104) Very bad trainer.
2: Bocalli. (107) Drop. "Tired" but back in 7 days.
3: Your Highness Leia. (110) Two straight sharp.
4: Moon Over Hemet. (99) 8 bad races in a row.
5: Presentee: (104) 2nd try in drop.
6: Campa Bella: (106) Long layoff.
7: Firey Autumn Haze. (107) Tends to place.
8: Tami's Storm. (105) Win, dull race, drop. "No response" but back in 7 days.
Your Highness Leia seems to be the key horse, may bounce, be overbet.
But by RSA, all but 4,6 can compete.
Bocalli is taking the biggest drop.
Win pick, Bocalli.

RACE THREE: 8.5 furlongs, turf, clm $6250. Race rating 112
1: Pem Bro (112)In form, logical.
2: Sandy Beach (105) 0/5 turf. No form. Doing poorly with trainer.
3: Flip Flop Fly (113) Trainer wins after claim.
4: Sand Canyon. (110) Broke maiden on 19th try.
5: American Fury (113) In form, off 47 days, good works, 0/4 turf, tends place.
6: Get Connected (111) Not much good at dirt/turf.
7: Mister Cosmi (113)Turf horse in form.
8: Lookn East (103) 9 y.o. claimed, raised, moved to turf by best trainer.
9: (AE) Palmetto Road. (112) Good form on the turf.
Prime: Pem Bro over Mister Cosmi.
Win pick: Lookn East, based on trainer, good odds. (5/1)

RACE FOUR: Race rating 107, 8 furlongs, fillies, dirt.
1: Star Quality. (109) Toss off.
1A: Warren's Candy (111) Two in a row.
2: Fettles Klan. (103) 6 bad races.
3: Fast An Catty (110) Toss turf. Trainer 29% on dirt.
4: Star Fix (113) Competitive last distance, surface
5: Pyramid Passage (105) 4/54 and bad trainer.
6: Cowgirl Way (99) Family hobby horse.
7: Mystical Ridge (110) Layoff, won after layoff, right distance, but 3/25, bad post.
8: Dynamic Lacy (112) O&T, toss turf, 2/7 distance, bad post.
Prime: Star Quality, Warrens Candy, Star Fix exacta.
I add Fast An Catty.

RACE FIVE: Rating 109 8 furlongs N2L
1: Juranees. (103) 10 bad races in a row, horrible trainer. Late161
2: Sandyford. (107) Just claimed, no speed, 1/25 Late162
3: Charming Fellow. (103) 4 bad races, awful trainer.
4: Ghost Giver (106) Could be a router. Late157
5: Go Fast (108) Toss slop, could score big. Late162
6: Bold and Gold (109) Big maiden win.
7: Beware the Wolf (108) tough in last, but sloppy. Late159
8: Zielonco (110) Huge maiden win, bad post.
9: Corona's Party (103) Looks like a bad claim.
10: Casual Lifestyle (110) Has talent, but layoff, bad post.
Prime: Sandyford.
My longshot: Go Fast, have to toss to see it.
5-horse super with all late bloomers.

RACE SIX 8 furlong open claimer, $3200 Race rating 111
1: Find My Halter (111) Some chance I suppose.
2: Blaze N Light (113) Logical winner, early speed, 5 wins in year.
3: Paradise Treasures (100) Layoff, 1/9 at TUP, new and even worse trainer.
4: Crazy Larrys (105) Good trainer, bad form.
5: Roar Again (98) Poor everything, speed and fade.
6: Kings County (108) Toss turf, could win.
7: Ms Minton's Excess (113) Won last off track. 4 wins this year.
8: Grog (107) Outside post, poor JT
9: Lomard (99) 4 bad in a row, outside post.
10: Fight On SC (111) Game, even from outside.
Prime: Blaze N Light.
Add: Ms Minton's Excess, Fight on SC, King's County.

RACE 7: Turf class 112
1: Aza (113) Trainer 37% layoff.
2: Canard (112) Won last turf.
3: Northern Blood (106)
4: Plenty of Heat (110) 5/13 turf.
5: Larry King (114) But no turf wins, but then again, Bennett at 26% dirt/turf
6: High Eena (112) Good trainer, but 1/19 turf.
7: Mr. Playwright (114) Gave up last.
8: Conditional (112) place, show.
9: Global Trader AE (116) Blowout winner if in, 3/3 turf.
Pick: Global Trader if in, or Aza.

RACE 8: Handicap sprint class 113
1: Slewiton (111)
2: Bitterroot (109)
3: Kingsburg (105) But much tougher sprint way back.
4: Levelled (113) Doing better with new trainer.
5: Corporal Tillman (111) Layoff 10%
6: Blackbird (116) 4 in a row, layoff
7: Justafirecracker (113) Moves to lousy trainer.
8: Hey Slick (113) Not having a good year.
9: King Justin (117) Bad post but 10/24 TUP
Prime: Hey Slick, King Justin, Blackbird
I'd take out Hey Slick and slip Levelled into the tri.

RACE 9: Two year old fillies, bottom level claimer.

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