BELMONT SEPT.30

10: JOCKEY CLUB GOLD

In order:

Lawyer Ron 128@116 Pletcher has turned him into a super horse. But he's 0/2 at the distance and unproven at Belmont. The odds will probably be around 2/5, which makes him a no-bet. He probably has about a 50 percent chance to win. At even money, he'd still be barely bettable.

Curlin 127@106 Has raced really well at distances longer than today's 1.25 miles. His speed figure at Belmont equals Lawyer Ron's. He's younger and may yet improve. Doubt we'd get the 5/2 ML.

Political Force 125@106. This is the guy who could push Lawyer Ron along at a wicked pace. He has two wins at Belmont, and has beat Lawyer Ron once. There's a freak chance he could flat out win, and a better that he could wear down Ron for Curlin's late charge.

Sun King 124@107 is the other 8/1 horse, and isn't anywhere near the threat Political Force will be. He's 1-for-12 in the last two years. He lays back off the pace but is no match for Curlin back there. He's 0/4 at the distance, and at Belmont if anything tends to place and show. MAYBE belongs on the trifecta ticket, but will be no factor in the race.

Malibu Moonshine 122@105 is listed at 30/1, but is better than Brother Bobby. He's 3/20 as a horse in much cheaper handicappers. Much more likely to sneak into the trifecta that Brother Bobby.

Indy Wind 122@101. Has the Seattle Slew bloodlines for a good long race but just doesn't have the credentials. Like Malibu, he's a handicap horse, and won't be winning graded stakes any time soon.

Brother Bobby 121@106 has the rail bias, which is huge, since the race basically opens up immediately into a turn. But he is basically an allowance horse with no early speed, no wins at the distance and is likely to get shuffled back and trapped inside. Not that it will matter. He's got no shot. (What I did not forsee was that Brother Bobby would take the front end as his only alternative to getting trapped on the rail.)

Curlin and/or Political Force might offer fair value, with Ron sucking up all the tote. You could bet Curlin and Political Force BOTH and get much better value than betting on Lawyer Ron.

A trifecta ticket might look like this:

Lawyer Ron, Curlin, add Political Force to the second slot and Sun King to the third.
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$400 bet on Curlin, Political Force, $620 returned on Curlin win.
$12 trifecta ticket paid $31.20