HOT CHALK REPORT, AUGUST 18

Overall: The hot chalk only scored at 33%, but showed a profit anyway...

18 bets
6 wins
$3600 wagered.
$3760 returned.

SARATOGA

Second: Comandeered (6) Also ran
Wall Street Humor, his only logical rival, proved himself but against cheaper at Belmont.

Seventh: Holiday Trip (7)???? Wins
But I have my doubts. Holiday looks like an 0 for 10 sucker horse.
Riz Sauvage has the style, but not the class.
Dynaski, off the layoff, with Gomez.
Terror on Track has credentials, but early speed gets crushed at 9.5 furlongs on turf.

Eighth: (The Yaddo) J'ray (7) Also ran
J'Ray has the best lifetime record by far, at 6 wins for 13 starts. Never OTM in 11 turf starts. He has won convincingly twice at this level.
Factual Contender (10) his main rival, wins these long turf races wire to wire. But this time he has a poor post. In fact every one of his wire-turf wins has been from the inside. And J'ray has four high-class wins while Factual has one of that type.

DEL MAR

Third: Categorize (1) Melted down.

Sixth: Their He Goes (7) Also ran.

Seventh: Blowout (9) Also ran
Yup, they're all allowance races, but Blowout has been facing much tougher fields than this.

MONMOUTH

First: Ramapo (7) Speed bias will help an already dominant horse. Win $5.00

Fourth: Elizabul (6) Jersey Joe aboard, horse drops to weakest competition ever.
[Off turf, no bet.]

Fifth: Dagger (3) Ran a monster race for place in debut.
Win $3.40

Ninth: Iselin Grade III Master Command (5)
A look at their life lines show this guy winning half his races and a million plus bucks, while Papi Chullo, hasn't done even half as well. Plus, the Master has grade two and three victories that Papi lacks. Papi's nice, but looks lost in graded stakes.
Failed utterly.

ARLINGTON

Second: Zyanara (2) ???? Bolted last time, jockey is 6% in routes... Placed

Sixth: Fire Lookout (6) By default in a weak field. Douglas knows the turf here. Win $12.60

Seventh: Hawk's Concerto (7) Improving horse meets weak field. Also ran.

Tenth: A Nice Splash (6) Boxed in last time, missed by a nose. Showed

Eleventh: Master Commander (1) ????? Keeps fading on Polytrack so it's back to the turf where he... keeps fading. Yes, another fade...

ELLIS

First: Multiplier (8) ????? But the jock has been miserable on turf. Won $4.80

Eighth: Deputy Dance (5) Also ran.
Dropped to AP to get his maiden, then to CBY to win a cheap handicap. But that was still a better race than any of his competitors have won...


LAUREL


First: Run Lover Run (4) Showed
Poor finish disguises an improved running line and better early speed. But most important, meets a very soft field.

Second: Piginapoke (2) Won $5.20
Has 3 wins in 7 starts, drops to claiming, so toss that allowance race. His main competition, Blue Sailor, has weak dirt races. Ditto Clydetheglyde, switching from turf. Samurai Prince (5) is the only real competition here.

Third: Better Than Ever (7) Won $4.20
In superb form and at the right distance. Has run down the pace at this 5F turf distance two times out of 3. He will drive between horses and do it in crowded fields. Elusive King does the same trick, but is new with a completely inexperienced trainer. The bias horse, Blackjack Boy, is overmatched and off form.

Seventh: Lights Out Angel ???(2) Also ran
Scott Lake's charge has the right jock and post. Doryphar (3) will be charging late and has the right post and the right style and could be the winner. Doryphar did win.

Ninth: Strizzi (10) Won $7.20
Destroyed this type of claiming field last time he faced one. New trainer knows how to win first time back. Great turf jockey.

Tenth: Encaustic (7) Placed
Morning Line is even money... faced much tougher in Jersey. Early speed style is wrong for this race, but the field is so weak it won't matter.

Eleventh: Freakazoid (3) Showed
Drops back to claimer after a mediocre allowance race.