HOT CHALK FOR SATURDAY AUGUST 18

Best bets are in bold, and without question marks.

SARATOGA
Forecast: Sunny, 78

First: Nerve (8) Last 3 dirt starts were fabulous, trouble in last, drops to lowest level ever.
Make Me Smile (5) is dropping to first claim after a 3-race rehab. Seems outclassed by Nerve.
Mount Wilton (4) Wrong surface, wrong distance for a horse whose form is gone wrong.
Deputy General (3) Rising form out of weak race.
Speedball Howie (1) Dutrow claims off a win, raises. He's 3-1 in such a move.
Nerve's performance in his last 3 can't be matched by any. His only real competition, based on class, is Mount Wilton, who is not a sprinter.

Second: Comandeered (6)
Wall Street Humor, his only logical rival, proved himself but against cheaper at Belmont.

Seventh: Holiday Trip (7)????
But I have my doubts. Holiday looks like an 0 for 10 sucker horse.
Riz Sauvage has the style, but not the class.
Dynaski, off the layoff, with Gomez.
Terror on Track has credentials, but early speed gets crushed at 9.5 furlongs on turf.

Eighth: (The Yaddo) J'ray (7)
J'Ray has the best lifetime record by far, at 6 wins for 13 starts. Never OTM in 11 turf starts. He has won convincingly twice at this level.
Factual Contender (10) his main rival, wins these long turf races wire to wire. But this time he has a poor post. In fact every one of his wire-turf wins has been from the inside. And J'ray has four high-class wins while Factual has one of that type.

Ninth, the Alabama: Octave is NOT hot chalk because Panty Raid and Lady Joanne will offer real competition. None of the 3 would be a surprise winner, so the only good bet will be one of these three at well over 2-1.
This is a one-mile dirt route with a bias toward early speed. Octave has that speed, plus two grade one wins at Belmont, including the Mother Goose.
In the Mother, she barely beat Lady Joanne, who has won just as many tough races. These two will contest the pace.
Moon Catcher, off a just-win at the Delaware Oaks will push the pace, but is probably overmatched and very likely peaked at Delaware. Likewise Godolphin Stable's Folk.
Prado on Panty Raid will be right behind them all in case the pace melts down.
In this race, it all depends on the odds offered, because any of these top 3 could win.


DEL MAR
Forecast: Sunny, 80

The "who knows" bets are in light-face type. The bold is the hot chalk.

First: Thru n Thru (4) 9/2. Speed meets class, sloppy last race disguises form.

Second: Six Again (9) 8/5 is the classic maiden sucker horse, 0 for 11. Set For Combat (6) wins.

Third: Hot chalk: Categorize (1) Never faced a field this weak.

Fourth: Capi and Max (6) Early speed and class, will improve in 2nd lifetime race.

Fifth: Peace Accord (12) Has the pace-pressing style and outside post actually helps here.

Sixth: Hot Chalk: Their He Goes (7)

Seventh: Hot Chalk: Blowout (9) Yup, they're all allowance races, but Blowout has been facing much tougher fields than this.

Eighth: The Del Mar Oaks: Super Freaky (4) at 6/1. Espinosa (or maybe Dominguez) is the best turf jockey in this race. Super Freaky has the pace pestering style that wins this race. A lousy trip last time assures a nice price this time.

Ninth: Raise the Heat (5). Hollendorfer puts Dominguez in the irons. This horse is new to the barn and Jerry scores at 25% with newbies. ML 7/2.


MONMOUTH
Forecast: Partly cloudy, 81

First: Ramapo (7) Speed bias will help an already dominant horse.

Fourth: Elizabul (6) Jersey Joe aboard, horse drops to weakest competition ever.

Fifth: Dagger (3) Ran a monster race for place in debut.

Ninth: Iselin Grade III Master Command (5) A look at their life lines show this guy winning half his races and a million plus bucks, while Papi Chullo, hasn't done even half as well. Plus, the Master has grade two and three victories that Papi lacks. Papi's nice, but looks lost in graded stakes.

ARLINGTON
Forecast: Evening showers and t-storms, 75.

Second: Zyanara (2) ???? Bolted last time, jockey is 6% in routes...

Sixth: Fire Lookout (6) By default in a weak field. Douglas knows the turf here.

Seventh: Hawk's Concerto (7) Improving horse meets weak field.

Ninth, the AP Oaks: Of the seven entered, Mini Sermon, Marietta, Humble Janet and Kiss With a Twist are all probable winners and there is no hot chalk. Absolute minimum odds: 3-1.

Tenth: A Nice Splash (6) Boxed in last time, missed by a nose.

Eleventh: Master Commander (1) ????? Keeps fading on Polytrack so it's back to the turf where he... keeps fading.

ELLIS
Forecast: Morning showers, 85

First: Multiplier (8) ????? But the jock has been miserable on turf.

Eighth: Deputy Dance (5) Dropped to AP to get his maiden, then to CBY to win a cheap handicap. But that was still a better race than any of his competitors have won...


Since there are very few hot chalks, and even these are fairly marginal, we're only taking a cheap stab at Ellis Park's 4% pick 4. It keys in on the track's severe bias toward speed on the inside.

Best we can do:
Nine: Reen (3) Speed inside.

Ten:
Revival Ridge (1) Speed on the rail.
Poschner (4) Class of the field.

Eleven: Grade III Gardenia:
Brownie Points (8) My Chickadee (5) High Heels (12)
The contenders:
1) Mia's Reflection: Doesn't remember what a dry track feels like.
2) Pleasant Hill: Way too ambitious for this horse, mediocre route jockey.
3) Eyes on Eddy: Been declining since his great race in March.
4) Molly's Pride: Not even remotely qualified to compete here.
5) My Chickadee: ML of 20-1 is way too high. Hasn't run on a dirt surface since April. In that G-III race, he ran a monster that would crush today's field.
6) Fiery Pursuit: Went sour in May and probably is still sour.
7) Maggie Slew: Won last, but that was much much much cheaper than this.
8) Brownie Points: Victories in non-graded stakes were really high quality. Jockey Quinonez is the only one in the race who reliably wins routes.
9) Leah's Secret: Downward sprial since Brownie Points beat her.
10) Stop A Train. Good enough to win, if barely.
11) Superb Ravi: No shot.
12) High Heels: Kentucky Oaks winner seems to have lost a step in last two races, but a bullet five furlong work might have sharpened her.

12: Action Seeker (2) ML 9/2 Inside speed on severely biased track.
Star Defender (11) Asmussen's firster.


That's a 1*1*3*2 ticket at 50 cents a pop,
or $3.00 American.
It won't be an all-chalk winning ticket, so expect a decent payout.


LAUREL
Isolated t-storms, 94

Let's hope it stays dry and a bit cooler there in muggy town. There's a lot of hot chalk at this track today. With the dramatically lowered takeout at this meet, we have some nice opportunities here.


First: Run Lover Run (4) Poor finish disguises an improved running line and better early speed. But most important, meets a very soft field.

Second: Piginapoke (2) Has 3 wins in 7 starts, drops to claiming, so toss that allowance race. His main competition, Blue Sailor, has weak dirt races. Ditto Clydetheglyde, switching from turf. Samurai Prince (5) is the only real competition here.

Third: Better Than Ever (7) In superb form and at the right distance. Has run down the pace at this 5F turf distance two times out of 3. He will drive between horses and do it in crowded fields. Elusive King does the same trick, but is new with a completely inexperienced trainer. The bias horse, Blackjack Boy, is overmatched and off form.

You have about a 12% chance of hitting this pick 3.

[Rolling pick 3s begin here.)

Seventh: Lights Out Angel ???(2)
Scott Lake's charge has the right jock and post. Doryphar (3) will be charging late and has the right post and the right style and could be the winner.

Eighth: Let It Ride Johnny

Ninth: Strizzi (10) Destroyed this type of claiming field last time he faced one. New trainer knows how to win first time back. Great turf jockey.

Tenth Encaustic (7) Morning Line is even money... faced much tougher in Jersey. Early speed style is wrong for this race, but the field is so weak it won't matter.

Eleventh: Freakazoid (3) Drops back to claimer after a mediocre allowance race.
Another pick 3 possibility
Also a late double