SARATOGA JULY 28

ERASE THE CHALK:

Saratoga will live up to its reputation today as the graveyard of favorites. Only one race has a truly dominant horse. All the big stakes races seem highly competitive, and we're going to take long looks at horses that offer prices of 3, 4 and 5 to 1.

RESULTS 2 FOR 7, $750 WON FOR $700 PLAYED.....

FAVORITES WIN 3 OF 11

FOUR LONGSHOTS WIN AT OVER 10/1....


Race 1:
The likelies:
Tsuris: but entries are ALWAYS overbet.
Sir Jackie: seems to finish 2nd in routes.
Fire Hero 3/1. Improving and the best horse in the race.
Private Lap 3/1. Has good speed at the long distance.
Bailero 9/2. Huge Drop, but was way back in last two. I don't see much success out of these horses expecting to make up 16 lengths by dropping a few classes.

These are all capable of winning, but Fire Hero has done best in the toughest races, a couple of starter handicaps at Belmont.

PRIVATE LAP $4.50




Race 2: JR rides Mr. Shortcake in a maiden laugher. Throw a few bombs underneath him in the tri.

SCRATCHED

Race 3: Turf allowance for maiden winners.
Mister White Socks comes off two very tough races at Belmont, and deserves more credit than his mediocre finishes suggest. I wouldn't bet a bundle, but a cheap flyer at nice odds would be okay. Nobody in this race has really proved much.

THORN SONG 14.90

Race 4: Cash Rich, 12/1, a nice longshot who finished 2nd in a respectable race last time. There's no dominant horse here, and whoever the favorite is, I'd target him. By my count, there are 6 horses who could easily win. Translation: longshot race.
FRESH EPISODE, 47.50

Race 5: MSW with a zillion horses in the gate. I count seven real contenders, and that's too damn many -- think I will get a hot dog now.

Race 6: A level one allowance.

Ziparoo with Garrett aboard, always near the front. Long layoff tho.

Def.. whatever. Where do people come up with these awful names for horses? I'm not betting this one just because the name sucks.

Monster Drive. 2/1 favorite. Bill Mott has had him laid off for months. I'd bet against this kind of favorite anytime. I hope the crowd drives him down to even money, creating overlays all over the board.

This race is so lame I think the rehabbed claimer Everblazing has a chance, and he'd be my longshot play at about 8-1.

MONSTER DRIVE 1.45


Race 7: DIANA STAKES on the grass.

Three top condenders:

Makderah 2/1 has won big twice in a row, but only the last one was a graded stakes. She's favored based on a blowout win last time. But one race doesn't mean anything. She's lacking in proven class.

Danzon may be snake bit, or not, who knows what Mssr. Biancone is up to nowadays. But I won't be betting his horses for a while. Danzon's 0 for America anyway.

My Typhoon is the choice here, having run two zoomer stretch drives in a row. She's 3 for 7 in graded stakes on the turf. Let's see, when I went to school that was actual odds of 4-3. Morning line says 3/1. Looks like a bet to me. Be lucky if she goes off at 3-2 though.

MY TYPHOON, 3.05

Race 8: THE VANDERBILT. A match race for two horses, really.

Commentator, winner of last year's Whitney, is first in the ML...

But Diablolical has the edge in class and speed at this sprint distance. Klesaris is 25% in this kind of layoff situation. Diabolical has been first or a tough second in four graded stakes in a row now, and no other contender has done anything remotely like that.

Commentator's boss man, one Mr. Zito, despite being a celeb trainer, sucks at graded stakes. Commentator has not run a convincing graded stakes since.

Speed figs say Benny the Bull will be flying at these tired speedballs late, but I don't believe he can turn an Iowa handicap perfect trip win into a major stakes triumph.

Saint Addan 6/1 is running on credentials of a single great race run over an off track. In hoss racin', friends, one race doesn't mean anything. Other than that Frankel's 5-year-old is is an Allowance horse.

DIABOLICAL 2.50

Race 9: GO FOR WAND.
Ginger Punch 8/5 ML. That 5 length victory at Belmont I suspect of being an easy win from a perfect trip. Ginger is a nice horse, but does have a tendency to finish 2nd. If the crowd backs her below even money, she really is not worth a bet. Crowd will also plunge because Frankel's the trainer.

Ermine, 2/1 in the ML. Has proven herself 3 times at this distance whereas Ginger Punch has not. These two have an equal chance, and assuming that Ginger will be bet all to hell, I'll take Ermine.

Teammate 3/1 might be neglected. She punked out last time but that race had a ridiculous killer pace. She will try to steal this race from the gate and just might. If the crowd lets her go off at better than 3/1, I'm aboard.

GINGER PUNCH 1.25

RACE 10: THE WHITNEY.
Magna Graduate is the weak ML favorite at 7/2. Pletcher-Gomez are pluses, and he ran great in the last two graded stakes and loves the distance.

Flashy Bull, 4/1. Won four in a row, loves the jock, great trainer, proven at the distance. Two races at SAR give Flashy a bit of an edge of Magna, who's never run here.

Papi Chullo 9/2. Contessa hasn't won many graded stakes. Papi's last two wins were in lesser races, and his last two graded stakes were poor efforts.

Sun King 12/1 is an interesting closer for the minor positions, and has the best speed rating at distance of all these horses.

Diamond Stripes 5/1 Dutrow and Prado are pluses. His run in the Foster was amazing, and this is his perfect distance. Diamond is the only contender with a win at the spa. I give him the slight edge.

Lawyer Ron 6/1 Pletcher-JR can't hurt. Distance is right. But in the really big races, he seems to come up just short.

STRATEGY: Magna, Flashy and Diamond are the plays, each with about an equal chance. We'll back whichever one the crowd neglects. It never works this way, but this should be a race with 3 co-favorites.

LAWYER RON AFTER THE RAIN. NO BET.

RACE 11: Super or tifecta this MSW 1-3-8-10, because it offers no clear favorite for win betting.