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I feel horseplayers owe it to themselves to play Ellis Park's 4% takeout Pick Four. I mean, not only do we have a better chance of making money on it, but we send a message to all those suits out there that we ARE paying attention and we DO respond to creative iniatives on their part. Let's face it, the 20% plus takeout on so many exotics is a ripoff. Why would you bet exotics at other tracks and leave Ellis alone?
Anyway, enough about that. Here's the Pick Four for Saturday.
RACE 8: TURF MSW 5.5 FURLONGS.
3- Nootka Sound though 0-6 has been improving every race and has been kept from breaking his maiden by the better horses at Churchill and Oaklawn.
4- Brewster is the best of the locals here, although his stalking style may not fit the distance.
But these two cover the most likely pace scenarios.
RACE 9: MSW 6.5 FURLONGS
3- Tiz a Man and
5- La Bala are the only bettable horses in here.
RACE 10: $50,000 TURF HANDICAP FOR FILLIES..., 8.5 FURLONGS.
Of 12 horses, 8 have turf wins. The AE horses are not worth considering.
3- Silk Degrees is 1/2 on turf with win at CD.
4- Aidan's Bella is off a nice win at AP.
5- Katerburg is 2/5 on grass, with a just miss at CD and win at Kee.
7- Si Si Mon Amie is 2/5 with a win at AP.
10 Alice Belle, two turf wins in a row at LS, but lousy post as bias is inside.
So we have 3,4,5,7.
RACE 11:
The condition of the race: No more than 1 win in the past year, claiming $7,500.
5 horses haven't won at all this year, and 6 have.
The inside posts in this miler are winning at 22%. The only inside horse with a win this year is:
3: Dancin Dennis. He's also dropping a bit from his win at Mountaineer.
Others:
4: Road Town, two horrible races in a row.
6: Bogey Free is 0/4 at Elp.
7: Classic Beach made a nice move to show in last...
8: No Nice, ships in via lousy trainer after cheap win at FP.
9: Oblat: Improving with nice works, a win last.
OBVIOUS HORSES....
3- DANCIN DENNIS
7- CLASSIC BEECH
9- OBLAT
SO NOW TO THE TICKET....
3,4 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,7 with 3,7,9.
48 combinations or a $24 ticket....
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Cheaper tickets:
3,4 with 3,5 with 3,4,5 with 3,7
This $12 ticket plays to Ellis Park's inside bias.
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3,4, 3,5, 7, 3
This $4 ticket is suggested by Brisnet's power ratings.
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and finally, the one dollar tosser...
3 w 3 w 75 w 3
Good luck!
HAD THREE LEGS AND MISSED THE FOURTH IN ALL TICKETS, EVEN THE $1
Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments
Friday, July 27, 2007
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