No Irish jokes, no green beer, no corned beef & cabbage.
Score for the day: 4 for 6, turning $31 into $86
THE DERBY;
Street Sense will be bet down to pennies. Despite his proven talent in graded stakes, he is a layoff horse with a low-percentage trainer. Pletcher's Any Given Saturday will lead 'em out of the gate, and if the crowd lets him go at 3/1 I'm betting. I believe the Morning Line: This is a two horse race, and it will be a miracle if it offers a playable bet.
No bet, but what a great stretch drive by two game horses.
RACE 11: THE HILLSBOROUGH:
Turf racing, what can I say? Play the classiest turf runners. Rich in Spirit, My Typhoon and Cassydora in a trifecta box.
Two out of three gets you a nothing.
RACE 10: THE FLORIDA OAKS: Cotton Blossom will be bet down to 3/5. Autobahn Girl has won 3 in a row, although the best of those was only a $75k handicap. But she is versatile and can wire a field or pull a Silky Sullivan, whatever's needed to win. If 3/1, I'm playing her over the favorite. Trainee (6/1 ml) has some wins but they are all on slow paces. Desire to Excel (5/1) has 3 really nice races but hasn't run a route yet. The rest are longshots.
Cotton Blossom went off at even money and scored on a perfect trip.
RACE 9: THE TURF DASH: Trainer Jamie Ness owns Lookinforthesecret, 9/2 in the morning line, with 3 wins and a place in his last four races and a good record at this bastard distance. (Five furlongs). Centeno has been hot and he's riding. Steel the Glory is the weak favorite at 7/2, and has four wins in a row -- none of them on the turf. He also has an outside post, a bad spot with the turn coming up so soon at this distance.
The Ness barn scored nicely at 5/1, paying $13.00.
RACE 7: Silver Pegasus. I pray to get the ML of 5/1. This horse has been improving for four races now and just may have the stamima to go this longer distance.
Well, okay we got 3-1 and he wired the field paying $8.20
RACE 6: Let chaos reign! This is a classic longshot race, an A2 with no real standouts. I'm tossing Genuine Ruby's turf race. I know the crowd won't because they rarely toss the race. Ruby will be 8/1 maybe, and could well wire these ladies.
Ruby scratched. Meadow Mirage won at 4/5. Chaos? Did I predict chaos?
RACE 5: Turf Allowance. Stay Close knows how to get the good stalking spot. Might get 4/1 on him.
Stay Close did the job, paying $9.00
RACE 4: Baird's Village, listed at 4/1, but I'll take any price. He's got speed early and stamina late, is with a new trainer and has a bit of "hidden" class.
He destroyed the field and paid $5.20.
RACE 3: More chaos in an $8,000 claimer. Play Pops Choice has run down pokey pacesetters twice in a row, and we'll have a pokey place here.
Pops paid $4.40.
RACE 2: Maybe Madame Lil will win two in a row. But Left On Sycamore is peaking, has better pace times than the Madame, and will pay a lot better if he does score.
Wrong, Carnac! Madame Lil ruleed the field.
RACE 1: Cheap and chaotic. Prince Nick is the 2/1 favorite. But not in my book. I don't care if he's dropping from the Breeder's Cup Classic. He was 25 out in his last race, and 16 back in the race before that. His speed numbers are declining with every race. He's only won his maiden and an A1 in 14 tries. No thanks...
Gemway has won two cheapies in a row, and has enough early speed to make traffic trouble unlikely.
Gemway scratched and Nick scored as the fave.
Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments
Friday, March 16, 2007
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