FAIR GROUNDS, MARCH 24

RACE 2
1 mile $6250 filly claimer

Steve Asmussen owns K.P.'s Kandy, the weak (4/1) morning favorite. She dropped way down to pick up her last score at a margin of 5 lengths. The pace of her race was as slow as a molasses freight train.

Grab the Cat (6/1) is a terrific speedster who routinely wires a route from any and every post position. She has never won at FG, and is dropping drastically off a layoff. Is trainer Larry Rivelli trying to sell her cheap, or steal a purse?

I vote for the latter. Sure, this is a cheap claimer but the purse is $32,000. Hell, that counts as a handicap where Grab the Cat comes from. Rivelli's vanned her in from Canada. Has he come all this way to sell a sour horse?

The Cat will be at an unfamiliar track with a new jockey up. She has been at champ at Fort Erie but overmatched at Woodbine. I don't know. I'm having my doubts.

Robby Albarado chose Excell with Elle (7/2) who is 3 for 9 at FG. But this horse was claimed from Asmussen by an owner-trainer with a lesser record.

Heidi Cat (8/1) is dropping two classes to a level where she's won twice. But she's gone way off form and has no works since her last race.

When No Money (5/1) New owner- trainer, in from Chicago, dropping with two wins at much higher levels. This guy, Michael Reavis, is a 9-for-27 trainer with a good record with shippers, claimers and switches from sprints to routes. Bad form, yes, but that was over the nasty winter Chicago track, covered with gritty snow.

I'm going to stick with Grab the Cat, since nobody else has told a really convincing story.

RACE 4
8.5 FURLONG CLAIMING $25,000

Wild Notions (8/1) has the best speed at the distance, and has the class to get this one done. He's coming off a blow-away victory, where he was claimed and raised by a 25% trainer. Inside post is a tremendous advantage here and he can get to the rail on the lead. Would be a miracle to get a price on him.

RACE 5
CRESCENT CITY OAKS
8.5 FURLONGS
3-YEAR-OLD FILLIES

Mi Isabella (3/1) is the morning line darling. Has won two in a row, one on turf and one in slop.
She is the only one who has gone this distance, and has her lucky jockey up.

Princess Deelite (4/1) has won two sprint handicaps, but never routed.

Huckie (9/2) ditto.

Ms. Katherine(8/1) has won only her maiden.

Elegant Star (6/1) ditto.

Zarb's Ballerina (6/1) has won an Alw-1.


There isn't a lot of competition here aside from the 3 obvious horses. There are lots of sprinters stretching out, but no trainers adept at that maneuver. There are plenty of horses who haven't proven themselves at lower levels.

The problem with Mi Isabella, the obvious horse, is that she's 0 for 3 on a fast track. She seems meant for the turf and the slop.

Princess Deelite is fast, will definitely pass horses, and runs from mid pack, but has no route wins.

Huckie is more a front runner than those two, but has faded or hung 3 times in a row now.

RACE 6, THE GRINDSTONE
3-YEAR-OLDS ON THE TURF
8.5 FURLONGS
$100,000

It Ends Now: Maiden, stranger to grass.
Western Prize: Placed in $100,000 race at Retama @ 93 in September.
Poschner: Nosey winner of Alw-1 on 4th try.
Corrupt: 3 for 3, including two handicaps, with late speed.
Jazz Quest: Has yet to win Alw-1.
Mayor Bozarth: Frankel horse blown away by Corrupt last time.
Phil the Power: Maiden winner.

There is no pace-setter in this race.

We're left with 3 horses of the 7 who have done any serious work above the lowest allowance level. It looks like a cheap-pay trifecta with Corrupt in the key hole, Western Jazz and Mayor Bozarth underneath.

It's only a $2 ticket, so even a $10 payoff would be far better than anything the WPS board will offer.

RACE 7, THE LAGNIAPPE CLASSIC
8.5 FURLONGS

The entry, Grand Minit and Mean Butterbean 2/1
Grand Minit's the speed on the rail, which is winning at 25% these days at FG.
He does finish 2nd a lot and his best wins were Alw1 and Alw2. His last mediocre race can be forgiven, as it was a sprint.

Mean Butterbean has won or placed his last 4 handicaps. He has the speed and the stamina to win this.

Nowandforevermore (3/1). His last race on fast dirt was in December, and he won by 9, scoring a Beyer 102. He's got his regular jockey, Joe Talamo. He wins from mid-pack and is a definite contender with all the speed in here.

Perfect Harmony (5/1) Doesn't have the speed or class to match the others.

Diggy Fresh (4/1)A closer who's been running on turf lately, and not successfully. 1 for his last 11. Plus he's 0 for 7 at the distance.

Willist (8/1). A closer in good form with a new trainer. Sharp, but all winning riders have found other mounts...

I think Nowandfovermore makes a comeback to the blazing dirt race he is quite able to run. Four speedballs will be in front of him until the turn...

RACE 8, THE RED CAMELIA
8.5 FURONGS, LADIES ON THE TURF
$100,000

Raspberry Wine (3/1) has been beautifully conditioned and well-placed for more than a year now. If she had a turf record at all she'd be 2/5. But she showed in her only try on the turf. She picks up Robby Albarado, always a plus, but she's a layoff horse without a great record of winning on her first time back from the farm.

I'm going to say that trainer Albert Stall has had a momentary lapse in judgment here, and that Raspberry, despite her talent, doesn't take to the turf. I'm really only going with the evidence ... or lack thereof.

As for the rest, there are a remarkable number of winners of cheap allowances and restricted stakes. Many of the recent winners in this group have won off very slow paces.

Golden Demand (15/1) gets my bet. In fall she ran a turf race that was good enough to win here, coming on strong to win by 6 lengths. Then in November her dirt-racing campaign began. Just a week back, she was checked hard in the stretch in the Azalea handicap. Today's jockey (Meche) guided her to her best turf wins. I will really be surprised if she goes off at over 10/1.

I am worried that this is her second race in 8 days, but the last time she really kicked ass it was a 6-day layoff. She scored a Beyer 91 off a strong pace, and finished fast to win by those 6 lengths.

RACE 9, THE KENNER STAKES
6 FURLONGS FOR $150,000

Saint Anddan, Smoke Mountain and Gaff will be the early leaders.

Stetch runners will be Smalltown Slew and Venemous and maybe Monkey Hill.

With 3 speedsters in the race, it seems one of them will last to the end. Smalltown Slew loves to finish second. Venemous is the more dangerous stretch runner.

THE CONTENDERS:

Saint Anddan (8/1) scored in January against a much easier field in a Level-2 claimer. He wired 'em on an easy pace.

Smalltown Slew (7/2) scores for a minor position twice as often as he wins. His place record in the last 4 handicaps is two score.

Venemous (6/1) I rate as more of a danger to hit the board. He can close against good horses.

Monkey Hill (9/2) is 3 for 8 at the Fairgrounds. His trainer is over 30%. But he's been out of gas for two races in a row now.
Publish
Gaff (5/2) Has two wins in a row, a top trainer and a jockey he likes. His speed figures have been rising since summer. A workout March 19 says that his form will likely hold. I think he'll be the one speedster who won't fade, and that Venemous will be up for the place.

Longshot: Smoke Mountain. (8/1) Has early speed and a new trainer in Autrey Cody, who's scoring at 30%. At his best he could steal the race up front, but I wouldn't bet on it with all the other speed in here. He's won by huge margins lately against soft fields. Then he faded in his last race before the trainer switch. He could be (a) a declining form horse or (b) a new trainer wakeup.

My Call: Gaff to win, Gaff with Venemous in one-way exacta.