SANTA ANITA, FEB 24

Handicapping fads come and go, but the tote board is eternal. If racing does have a single home truth, it's that the most likely order of finish in any race is the one predicted by the crowd. This proves true year after year, track after track.

That's the crowd's strength. Its weakness is, it cannot see beyond the current race. This explains why a horse sits on the tote at 4/5 and is bet down to 3/5 and then even 2/5. Who would make such a crazy bet? People who are only focused on the next race. Because over time, such a bet must lose.

The crowd sees clearly, but is near-sighted.

With that in mind, let's look over Santa Anita on Saturday.

RACE 1: 1-MILE TURF A-1. Median Beyer 79

Red State Rules wins at 7.70 to 1. Red State did run a 79 Beyer in his last turf mile, back in June at Churchill. So he was capable. The big cue, though, was his switch from a 3% trainer to a 14% trainer -- and one who was scoring at a 23% rate with his new charges. The crowd bet Branca Como Neve, a combined Beyer-top jockey play.

RACE 3: 1-MILE DIRT Starter Allowance Median Beyer 67

The crowd could hardly separate Bound to Get Even ($1.90) and Capt. Sparrow ($1.80.)
As so often happens in dirt racing, they were right. Capt. Sparrow won by not quite a length, Bound to Get Even placed. Capt. Sparrow had an 8-point edge in the Beyers, and was stretching out after a come-from-behind blow-by win that amounted to 6 lengths. He was a good bet at 10 above the median and 8 above his main rival.

RACE 5: Optional Claimer Level 3, Downhill turf. Median Beyer 90.

Crowd fixed on Fete, the no brainer, 1/1 on this course and 7/16 lifetime, with early speed and the #2 Beyer (93). The #1 Beyer was Schefer, at 95. But the internal fractions of Scheffer's race betrayed it as a weak one. Fete conqured a pace of 43.4 last time and gained almost five lengths in the stretch. Scheffer was held to show at a pace of 45, with no excuses. Fete went off at 2.20-1

RACE 7: Las Flores G3. Six furlongs dirt. Median Beyer 86.

The favorite was Selvatica at 1.70-1. He had the Beyer, the workouts, the new trainer -- although not a better trainer. He had been off for almost two months. He has early speed but breaks from the 11-post. Garrett Gomez took him four or five wide, no surprise out of that hole. He had the lead into the stretch and then was passed by Hello Lucky at 33-1.
Hello Lucky had a Beyer of 94, and while not a no brainer to win, certainly should not have been 33-1. Any horse with a Beyer that far over the median has a chance to win, and the speedy favorite outside is a setup for an upset.

RACE 8: 1-mile claimer on the turf. Median Beyer 78
When is a Beyer not a Beyer?

Three horses had Beyers of 81 or 82.

Sandyford's 82 was earned after closing okay but no brilliantly after lolloygagging on a 49.2 pace. And that was last summer. Not impressive, and the crowd assigned him 32-1 as a reward.

Cammie's Future earned his 81 on a medicore pace of 48, but did it within the month and was just caught at the wire. The crowd made him the 2.20-1 favorite, and so did I.

Minister Blair (2.80-1) earned his 81 by actually setting a pace of 47.6, and then was "game between foes late" as he was bum-rushed into fourth in the final strides.

Minister Blair won, Cammie's Future showed. Once again, the winner had the Beyer with the better pace.

RACE 9: 6-furlong dirt claimer. Beyer median: 72.

Interesting, no, that this "cheap claimer" has a tougher Beyer median than the earlier starter allowance.

Anyway, the crowd fixated on Quietly Go, the son of Real Quiet and grandson of Spend A Buck. The great Real Quiet, nosed out of the 1998 Triple Crown, has not produced a lot of classy winners. Quietly Go, for example, has not yet earned back his $100,000 price at the Keeneland auction. In summer he won a level-1 allowance at Santa Anita with a 102, followed by 8 mediocre races and a drop into the $25,000 claiming class.

He ran a 76 in his last race, tiring in the last half-furlong. Now a drop to $10,000 Claiming was supposed to get him his 3rd victory.

The crowd weighed in at 2.20-1. In this field of 11 horses, he never moved out of mid-pack.

You can depend on the crowd to bet a class drop, especially after a just-miss, as in Quietly Go's case.

Olympic Miler, the 2nd choice at 3-1, had earned a 78 in his last race, had just missed, and was dropping one level from $12,500.

But Quietly Go had faded after a pace of 44.8 in his last.

Olympic Miler's last race was 7 furlongs. He was winning after six furlongs, and at a pace of 43.4. That's about 7 lengths better than Quietly Go's pace. But it was hidden in that mediocre Beyer, which seemed to be 1 length (2 Beyer points) better than Quietly Go. Olympic Miler wired the field from the 10-hole, winning by almost five lengths.