RACE 1: Cheap claiming sprint with 3 contenders and a mystery horse. What to do? I know. Superfecta!
3-1-7 are the obvious class of the race. But #8, Ricochet, could steal the show under a new trainer. Ricochet cuts to a sprint and has no speed. But there are 5 early speed horses in this race, and a closer could sneak in.
Superfecta box 3-1-7-8.
Landler scratched out, killing my super plans. But the others finished in a $103 tri.
3- Nuef de Carreu says my handicapping buddy- "7th last out but only 3 back and in the money for 6 straight before.
Big Bold Place- If Neuf is less that 3-1 do an exacta. If this one is also low odds take both in the P3."
I disagree. Both Neuf and Big Bold are good plays. I'm not a Beyer player, per se, so it's not Wooden Stone's 90 so much as how he won his last race, blowing away the speed horse and winning by five lengths on... a hand ride. There are 90s and there are 90s, and this is a 90. The pace of that race was tough too.
The Captain scores at 9/2. Wooden Stone placed and Big Bold showed. The Captain and I shoulda put our heads together on a tri...
4 -Ningbo- Mainly because he is the only one with two good races.
Ningbo was an also ran.
5-Mythical Conquest-Rested and drops, says my friend Captains Courageous.
Again, I respectfully disagree with the Captain. The last time Mythical won, it was his second race after a layoff, and that was in the slop. I like him to hit the board, but will play Dream On, Dream On to win. The Dreamer is the only horse with a win in anything but a claimer or low allowance. He's on his second race after a long layoff, and ran a great one in that race until giving up in the stretch. I think he's coming into top form.
I lose and the Captain scores with Mythical Conquest at 2-1.
6-Smoky chimney- the name and good works.
Also ran.
7- The Hallandale Beach, $100,000 at stake. "Would like to do an "ALL" but reality limits me to Soldiers Dancer and Sedgefield," says the Captain.
I know the feeling. My bet is that Soldier's Dancer is much the best. He's kicked ass in 3 $100,000 races and no other horse can say that. Okay, no horse can actually say anything, but at the finish line, I predict Soldier's Dancer will start gabbing like Mr. Ed. This horse can go 3 and 5 paths wide and STILL win this kind of race. The one time he tried to split rivals he lost by a head, and Rene Douglas was replaced as jockey. Corny Velasquez will probably keep Soldiers Dancer out of traffic today...
Soldier's Dancer finished up the track. Sedgefield placed, so we'll give the Captain credit for a $4.80 place payoff.
8-Trendy Lady- Pick of the day, says the Captain. Man, he and I are going to end up in a fistfight over this one. I spy Southern Dancer. Here are my reasons: Top jock Raffey Bejarano rides. Trainer Ian Wilkes is actually BETTER with layoff horses than with horse who've been racing lately. And Southern Flu had been off for 3 months now. A long series of good workouts has ended in a bullet. Southern Flu is the only horse who has been in a Graded race, and in that one he made a move against the better horses, and ended up third. She's a longshot, sure, and out of respect for Trendy Lady I'm going to split my bet between win and place.
9-The Captain says: "Jambalaya- Just ignore the last WO race and look what he did in first time at GP." I agree with the Captain, almost. Honey Rider has an ridiculous amount of class. In the Breeder's cup, he was beaten by Ouija Board and Film Maker. There are no horses of that class in this race. Still, Jambalaya is mighty mighty close to being that class of horse, and it only takes a little bad luck to stiff a favorite in a long, rugged turf race around two turns. I will box both these bad boys in an exacta, since I believe them to be almost equals.
Jambalya and Honey Rider ran 1-2 and paid $25 for the $2 box.
10-From the Captain: Most Distinguished-If he loses here I will never bet him again.
Timothy Patrick's score: $103 trifecta, $25 exacta = $128 for $16 bet.
Captain's score: $40-something for $16 bet.
Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment