BREEDER'S CUP, ANOTHER TAKE

As handicapped by 'Captains Courageous'

Aside from winning, the strategy is to stay alive for
the last few races. That is why I am doing a lot of
P3 and doubles.

Note: The morning lines quoted here come from the
preview edition of the Form which came out a week ago.

Juvenile Fillies:

Cash Included - Consider her first was just a
workout. The key is her last race, where she jumped
from MSW at 6f to a G1 at this distance and improved
in every aspect - winning margin, Beyer (12 point jump)
and position at each call. If the odds are anywhere
near the early 7-2 ML jump all over this one.

Untouched Talent - She has never had a bad race and
that has to count for something. Consider her for the
exacta.

Quick Little Miss - Showed type of improvement noted
with Cash Included but so far has only won a 128k
race. She finished out in three MSW races. Might
use in the tri.

Cash was never a factor. Untouched did not start.The exacta boxes with Cash and Quicl Little Miss wouldhave paid about $150. Start the day down $4.

Juvenile:

Anyone have a 14 sided coin? Too many nice horses
here but let's give it a try:

Great Hunter- His worst race was a second place 2-3/4
out in a G3 at HOL. He is coming off a G1 at Keeneland
where the polyturf supposedly favors closers like him.
His only other win was a Mdn, but how can you
ignore him? Expect a short price.

Scat Daddy - Might have won three straight stakes had
he not stumbled in the Hopeful.

Principle Secret: Lost by a neck in his first try at
a distance;.

Take the first two in the P3 and hook them with
Principle in the tri. I doubt the exacta will pay
much.

Note - Other than owners ego, what is Teuflesberg
doing here? Took 9 tries to break his maiden. Sure, he
lost by a neck in a G1 but two years from now that may
still be his career best. Hey, they paid $9,000 and he
has won $81,000. 5th place gets him another $50,000
plus.

Principle Secret: Lost by a neck in his first try at
a distance.

Filly & Mare Turf:

Good news: Gorella skips this for Mile so you get
something better than 3-5.

Bad News: Gorella skips this for the Mile so we
don't see her romp from 7 back in the last 1/8th.

Wait a While - How can you ignore 4 straight wins
where she improves in each?

Ouija Board - Good race after good race and has been
1-2 in this race the last 2 years.

Have to bet both of these on any wager. If Film Maker
goes off as the Form thinks (12-1) make her the
longshot special of the day.

Film went off at 8-1 so we took her and Oiuja in the
P3 and Film to win. The $1 exacta only paid $8 so I am
now down $8 with a live albeit low-paying ticket in
the P3.

Sprint:
Henny Hughes - Never in doubt in the last 3 races.
Bordanaro - 1 loss by 1/2 in his last 6.

Henny gets a slight edge but it is almost a coin
toss.
Since neither of these will offer value we go with
both in the multi-race bets and with Siren Lure in the
tri. Down the stretch, Siren will scare those who bet
against him but I expect him to come up short.

Give me a break, a horse that has not won in over a
year takes it? Henny was never in it after a bad
start.

Mile:

I would love to take Gorella but running against
males I do not even see her second. Take the short
price on Aragorn in the multi race things and use the
ex and tri money to go deeper in other races.

The odds exceeded my expectations, the race did not.
Maybe I will stop betting this BC race as I can not
figure the Euro numbers.
Distaff:

Fleet Indian has not lost in over a year. Enough said,
especially if the price matches the 2-1 early ML. I
like Baletto in the ex but not for the expected price.
I like nothing here in the tri so will stay with one
horse.

A racing disaster. Nothing else to say.

Turf:

Cacique will exceed my expectations especially if it
is more than even money.

Go ahead, call me a past poster but when I saw Miesques Approval at 24-1 I went for it. Lost the P3 starting with Aragorn. Up $40.

Classic:

If you have to ask for the winner you should stay
home and watch college football. Before you turn on
the game do us a favor and find a wagering outlet to
bet a large amount on any horse with odds over 2-1. I
will put a large amount on Bernadini if that 8-5 ML
hold which I don't think it will.

The good news - you can bet 6 combos in the tri with
the same horse on top. Go with Invasor, Lava Man and
Lawyer Ron.

The bad news. Had neither the winner, the ex or the
tri.

Back to cheap Norcal claimers...

Pick 6 notes: There are three ways to play a P6- frugal, deep and
dumb:

Frugal - treat it like a thinking persons lottery
ticket. Single most races go two deep in a few and,
maybe wheel one race.

Deep - Wheel a few races and go deep in others and
hope for the best.

Dumb - Buy $800 worth of tickets, Hope that if you win
it pays more than you put in. Remember the IRS treats
it as 400 single wagers, so anything over $600 gets
taxed and anything over $1500 has 29 percent taken off
the top. (Note: This system can work if you do it with
a few partners but the key word is "can.")

I am frugal so:
Cash Included
Great Hunter/Scat Daddy
Wait a While/Ouija Board
Henny Hughes
Cacique
Bernardini.

Total outlay $8 and you don't have to go to the
mini-mart to see if you won.