SELECTED RACES, SUNDAY OCT. 29

HAWTHORNE:

RACE 2: New Secret (2) at 3-1.
or Loosie on the Lead (3) if 4-1.
Exacta 2-3

STORY OF THE RACE:
This was a very low level claiming sprint for females who'd only won their maiden races. Loosie on the Lead was the Beyer horse, with a figure of 45 -- much the best. Her lack of consistency put her true odds at 3-1. She went to the gate at 3.4 to 1. That's not the kind of margin we're looking for, so we passed.
But... there was a way to build value with Loosie. We didn't see it. Neither did the crowd. Moved (#5) had a poor last race with a Beyer of 17, but had just moved to a new trainer. After 10 poor races in a row, she jumped up to place. A $161 exacta and a $1056 tri were waiting anyone who spotted the opportunity.

Both New Secret and Loosie failed to meet our odds demands. Our $4 box was wasted.

Loosie paid 8.80.
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RACE 3: Velvet Peaks (3) if 3-2.
or American Diva (2) if 9/2.
Lace Castelli (6) to place.
Exactas 3,6 or 2,6

STORY OF THE RACE:

A mid-level route for allowance winners of one race. The Diva went off at 2-1, the crowd apparently relying on her last good race -- four months ago. Uhn-uh. That ain't gonna wash. That's why we demanded 9/2. Okay, so Diva DQ'd into a win. And our Velvet Peaks was never in the race. The fact remains: If you bet 2-1 on horses like Diva, with two bad races in a row, you will lose.

The mis-priced horse in here was Seattle Songster (#1). She DQ'd into place at 10-1, longest shot on the board, and ruined a million chalky exotics.

Seattle had 4 wins, the second most in the race, a 24% trainer, and had improved dramatically in her last race, running within two lengths of the lead, despite trouble. She ran Beyers of 80 twice this year, a feat accomplished by no other horse. She had hit the board 3 times in 6 races at the exact distance. If she filled out your tri you made $287.

The real skunk in here was Zahira, a speed sprinter who had, you won't believe it, never ran this distance, faded badely in her last two races, and had faded in her only tries at route racing. She went off at 6-1. She should have been a zillion to one. She came in last. I mean, even I know better than to bet a horse without stamina who would have to wire a route to win.

Lace won and was disqualified for mugging another horse. Velvet Peaks cost us $2, the exacta $4.

American Diva paid 6.20
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RACE 4: Jovial Angel (1) at 3-2
Trifecta 1,3,7

STORY OF THE RACE:

This was a race for claimers who had only won their maidens. The favorite was Jovial Angel, who had just won her maiden last race. She won by 3/4 length after a hard battle; not the kind of race that qualifies a horse to step up against winners right away.
Yet, Jovial was the Beyer leader and crowd favorite. Our database tells us the odds on her should have been 3/2. She went to post at 6/5, so we looked for another bet. Beautiful Brat was the only horse who had two good races against winners. (When we say good, we mean within two lengths of the lead all or most of the way.)
At 5/2, she was a decent risk.

Picking the trifecta was easy. The finishers were the only 3 horses who did not have bad races in the last effort.


Beautiful Brat paid $7.60

Tri 3-1-7 paid 47.60. Now we're up $45.20
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RACE 6: Link to the Past (6) if 3-2
Trifecta 5,6,7
Don't let the 5 or 7 get off at better than 6-1.

STORY OF THE RACE:

The crowd was right: Link to the Past was a dominant, consistent horse with the top Beyer, 4 good races in a row, and had just missed twice at this N1X level.

He went off at 1.7 to 1. We broke our rules to bet on him. He was out front by almost two lengths coming out of the stretch and drew off in a laugher. Lesson: when everything's right, the best horses are worth 3/2.

We made a mistake on the trifecta. The 6 and 7 horses we picked both had only one good race. If there's any rule we like in horse racing it's this: One race doesn't mean anything.

The winning tri included Pleasantly Dazzling (2) at 7/2 and Running Geat (3) at 15-1. Plesantly had won her last, and was in the hands of a 33% (!) trainer, Wayne Catalano. Running Gear was an improving 3-year-old well worked off a layoff, and had hit the board three times in her four races. She was an ML overlay. Her last two races had Beyers that fit in with this race.

Link paid $5.40. We lost a little more than that on the tri box. Score now: Plus $44.80
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RACE 7: Longshot Indian Moonshine if better than 8-1.
Exacta 3,1,6

STORY OF THE RACE:

The crowd focused on Scion (#4) and the crowd was wrong. The crowd is usually wrong, but in this case they were very, very wrong. He went off as the 2-1 favorite. The crowd bet him down because of a supposed "drop." But Scion had turned in two terrible recent races, one 14 lengths out and the other 31 lengths out. This is not a drop, folks, this is a dtop out.
Scion's only two good races this year were in the muck. To make it worse, a drop from an OC $40 N3X to an open $25 claimer is not a drop at all. This crowd, at least, does not have a grasp of restricted racing and what it means.
Scion broke well, but soon fell back to finish last.
But when you've eliminated the favorite, what do you do? We picked Indian Moonshine (#5). This was his first drop from allowance to claiming. Six of his last ten races were good enough to win this event. The 10-1 odds and his two recent bad races made us shy away from the win window, and that was a good thing.

Our mistake on the exacta box was to include Worththebother (1) who was not worth the bother. He was the second Beyer horse, having won his maiden by 6 lengths. But Beyers do not account for class. Stepping up against horses who had won 3 and four races, Worththebother said "these guys are too tough for me" after a brief run at the leaders.

Well, he didn't say that in English. He said that in horse.


Indian Moonshine went off at 10-1, placed at $7.80

Since he was 10-1 we bet to win and place. $6 exacta box wasted. Score now plus $42.60
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SANTA ANITA

RACE 3: Attack Alert (1) at 3/2
Don't let Senator Matty (12) get off at more than 8-1.
Exacta 1,12

STORY OF THE RACE:
Attack Alert was pulled up early in the race, bad luck for him and for his backers. He had just come off a layoff, which probably means he came back too soon.

The race was won by Individual Knight (9) at 20-1. He had won five in a row at LA, a gate horse in cheap 4-1/2 furlong sprints. This race was 5-1/2 furlong. The whole thing was weird, with lots of entrants that had raced against quarter horses, etc. We should have passed.

Matty scratched, Attack was pulled up. Score now plus $40.60
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RACE 5: Solid Fuel (4) at 3/1 or pass.

STORY OF THE RACE: The crowd picked Solid Fuel (4), a really good horse. His two recent races were a win and a place, his Beyers were solid, and he was dropping just slightly in class. He had a tremendous consistency and a top trainer. The problem was the odds: 1:1. This race illustrates why betting 1:1 horses is a miserable idea.

Solid Fuel let the whole way until the last sixteenth. Then he and Traffic Update engaged in a brutal, heroic, hair-raising battle, bumping twice, with Solid Fuel leading by a nose up until the last stride.

That was not the performance of a 1:1 horse. A 1:1 horse should leave the gate laughing, stop off for a carrot at the 3/8ths pole, check his odds coming around the stretch, and lope over the line win no other horse in sight.

If you looked at their last five races, Traffic Update and Solid Fuel were essentially equal horses. Actually, Traffic Update was a shade better. The race proved this presicely true. The difference was that the crowd priced Traffic Update at EIGHT TIMES the price of Solid Fuel.

After a look at the tote we picked Traffic Update, $18.80. Solid Fuel was 1-1, lost by a nose hair to Traffic. We just won't bet any horse at even money, it is a ticket to loserville. Plus $59.40.
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RACE 7: Jungle Prince (1) at 3/1
Exacta 1,4

STORY OF THE RACE:

The Monarch, a G3 turf sprint.

The crowd picked Rebel Rebel (#4) based on Beyers, bad logic in a turf race. He went off at 2-1 and finished in Ojai. Lookie here, folks, no horse is worth less than 3-1 on the turf.

We picked Jungle Prince (#1) based on consistency, and lost, but at least we had the dignity of getting 5-1.

The surprise winner was Moth Ball (3) at 34-1. This wacky downhill semi-turf course brings out a lot of longshots. Moth Ball had barely even hit the board in her last twelve races, and never showed much in any graded stakes. This result is so freaky that it makes me wonder about betting this course -- except to put longshots in the exotics.

Jungle Prince stayed hidden in the jungle. Plus $53.40
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RACE 8: Weekend Tiger (5) at 3/1
Don't let Brooker (7) get off at better than 4-1.

STORY OF THE RACE:

The crowd was right on this one, spreading the odds out 3-1 to 8-1. Rarely do you see that. The Pharoh (#10) won and paid $15.20. His 6-1 price was fair for the #2 Beyer horse.

We passed on Brooker at 4/1. Weekend Tiger scratched. After at look at the tote we picked Secret Ridge (3) at 9/2. That lost. The Pharoh (1) at 6/1, slipped right past us.


Total for the day: $50 bet, $51.40 profit.
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LONGSHOT FLYERS FOR SUNDAY.

HAWTHORNE

RACE 8: 1,3,4,6,7,8,9. Pick best odds, gut feeling, blanket colors. Absolute minimum of 8-1.
Best of Bunch: As You Wish (4). Take her at 4-1 or better.

Etbauer (9) at $9.40. As You Wish missed by a step.

RACE 9: 2,3,5,6,8,9,13. Ditto.
Best of Bunch: Big Bold Place, (2) play at 4-1 or better.

Buzzle Ways (5) paid $7.20

SANTA ANITA
RACE 2: 1,3,4,7,9,10,11. Ditto.
Best: Hot Melody (4) at 5-1, or Witness This (7) at 4-1.

Doppio (1) paid $10.20


RACE 9: 2,3,4,7,9. Demand 6-1 minimum.
Berbatim (7) is worth 4-1.

Beautyandthe Beast (2) won $6.00