RACE 2: There are 3 horses in this one. There's no logical order of finish that would call for boxing a tri. Yodelladytoo (7) is the 5-2 ML favorite. Windwater (1) is second choice at 3-1. This seems right to me. The curious horse is Indian Chant (3) at 8-1. This 3-year-old gelding has yet to run a bad race. He was claimed after an easy win. For this race, I say play the tote and whichever of these 3 becomes a morning line overlay. But watch Indian Chant's price closely. At 8-1, I'm on board.
Yodelladytoo finished 3rd at 5/2.
RACE 3: The fave, Phar to Win (3) looks okay at 5/2. But the only horse that has won a starter allowance of this quality on the turf is Dadsalittleunusual (1), listed at 5-1. This is a mile-and-a-half race, and none of these ponies has raced that far. So don't bet the chalk. And don't rule out Glimmering Pete (2) at 8-1 who might have the stamina... check his last races. In any event, this is a tote race, in which we'll play the best overlay among these three.
Phar went ballistic on the boards. We played Dad's. He placed.
RACE 4: There's Somethingaboutlaura (2) all right. Something chalky. Can't bet on her can't bet against this high-weight classy filly in this handicap. She is the only graded stakes winner here. I'll take a cheap flyer on a 2-3 straight exacta. Getback Time (3) is the second best horse, so if Laura's got the horse flu...
Our exacta won! But Getback Time was disqualified. So we lost.
RACE 5: Moscow Burning (2) Nobody's in his class. Demand even money though, because you never know in horse racing. If the crowd burns down Moscow's price, try Fortunate Event (5) to place and a 2-5 straight exacta.
Fortunate Event placed. $7.00
RACE 6: This race should prove that the Beyers aren't what they're cracked up to be. The Beyer leader is Debonair Joe (6) who is listed at 12/1. In classy sprints, a Beyer leader is usually an honest 2/1. What this means is that Beyers don't account for class, not really. Because the 3rd best Beyer horse is Areyoutalkingtome (1) the only horse who has proved competitive in graded stakes. Yet he is the 8/5 favorite. If you get 8/5, plunge. If not, Da Stoops (8) to place or 1-8 exacta. You longshot players might want to look at Bro Lo (4).
Areyou... and Bro Lo scratched. Da Stoops went off at 1/2. Pass.
RACE 8: Burrito race! Okay, this is a one mile turf handicap, and a real head scratcher. Bet lightly. With Unfurl the Flag scratched, we're looking for 5-1 or better on any of these three: Kc Nite Mayr (7), Running Free (8) or McCann's Mojave (1). But my real advice is to skip the race and get a burrito.
But we don't pass when a 6-1 shot goess off at 19-1. Running Free placed. Paid $16.00. We'll expound on this sometime, but our strategy on win place betting is... from 2-1 to 8-1, bet win. Over that, hedge with place bets, and over 15-1, place bets only.
RACE 9: If they let Cheroot (4) off at 8-1, as threatened, I'm there.
Cheroot placed, but at 6-1, so we passed.
RACE 10: Cambiocorsa (5) is listed at 3/5. That is ridiculous. There's an overlay in here somewhere, and for my money it's Billy Shakespeare's Allswellthatnswell (3). Offered at 8-1. $2 to win $5 place at that price, I say.
Cam... went off at 30 cents on the dollar. My Shakespeare horse went off at 16-1, finished somewhere in London -- but so did Cam. Do not bet these odds-on horses.
Summary for the day: Two wins and 6 losses. $23 back for $12 in.
Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments
Saturday, October 28, 2006
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