KEENELAND, SATURDAY OCT. 14

RACE 3: If you toss his last race, #4 Smalltown Slew is a much more formidable horse. He's listed as the 2nd favorite at 5/2, and at that price, we take him. He has 7 strong races in a row since he came back from layoff in April. #5 Straight Line is the 2/1 ML favorite, but is too inconsistent for the low, low price he's likely to pay.

RACE 4: A mid-level claimer with 12 in the gate. Can't argue with the ML: #10, International Cat. He is a closer and the lanes are likely to be jammed. He has been shut out 10 times in a row now. But all his recent races have been much harder than this, so if the crowd doesn't go nuts on him, okay. But absolutely nothing under 2/1, bare bare minimum.

RACE 5: #9 Extreme Supreme is the Beyer horse, the morning line favorite, and probably the prettiest. But watch out for #5 Clear the Way, who has won tougher races than this twice. Well worth the ML of 6-1.

RACE 6: Tough call at the 2x level. The Beyer horse (#2) is listed at 10-1. Yikes! The power horse, Pentelicus Dance, an Ecuadorian import, loves place and show. #8 Humorous Gal comes back ready, and has Raffey on top. Raffey is killing this meet already with 8 for 26. #9 She's Indy Money, whose bloodline includes A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew, just missed in a 2x race this summer. We always like a consistency horse, but #11 Hot Attraction is a closer who love to place. The form horse is absolutely #12 Sunshine State. If she really does go off at the ML of 10-1, I'm all over it, because there are at least five horses who could easily show up in the circle.

RACE 7: THE T-BRED CLUB, GRADE 3: #6 Behaving Badly. 6/5. Doh. Like you'll get these odds on such a dominant horse. Howzabout an exacta with Badly over #1 Maryfield and #4 Malibu Mint.

RACE 8, THE FIRST LADY, GRADE 2: My Typhoon has done nothing but win graded stakes all year. She won or was fighting hard in each of the last stakes she was in. She's the Beyer leader, but by one point, and that's not really a lead. Gorella (#4) is the gorilla here. You never know in turf racing, but in theory, she's two-three lengths better than her sisters in competition here. The problem is she'll go all chalky on the tote, probably at 4-5. If My Typhoon holds up at 4-1, and Karen's Caper goes at 5-1... you know better than to chalk the turf, don't you?

RACE 9: If they really do give 8-1 on #1 Take the Ribbon, I'm buying. The ML is picking Germance at 5-2, who has been racing over in La Belle France. Okay, 5 wins in 6 graded Euro races is mighty impressive. But at a likely 2-1, I'm a skeptic. There are four or five horses who could win this, and 2-1 don't cut it.