Bay Meadows 10/28

To understand Bay Meadows you have to understand
Baze. He is closing in on the all time record and
regularly wins between 25 and 30 percent. The knock on him is thar he
does most of it on a second tier circuit -- but 9,000 wins is
9,000 wins and many times I have seen him in the five spot hugging
the rail in traffic in the stretch wondering why he does not go
wide. Many times he somehow threads his way to the front.

Many people just see Baze and bet on the horse (On
Saturday his highest ML is 9-2) and they curse because he lost at
3-5, My strategy is , when the odds are low, to put him only
in multi-race bets or to try to beat him - remember he still loses 70
percent of the time.

Having said that here are my Saturday picks. After
the races I will review what happened and will gloat or cry.

Race 1 - As noted the crowd will bet down Baze and
Sensitive Habit especially because he won by 8 last time. Keep
in mind that in 9 lfetime starts he has two in the money finishes
and one was his maiden. Instead I go with Captain Skyhawk with the
apprentice who won his last two by 7 and 5. The guy in the Form
wonders how long he can keep it up but I say one more time. If he
is 4-1 or more go for the win otherrwise use in the P3 and add Baze
to the bet.

The Form was correct. Skyhawk was 2nd and Baze
finished out ending the early P3 Shyhawhk did not
appear to tire as much as Torko Spirit gained at the
end.

Race 2- If you believe the ML, the crowd will ignore
the fact that Iknoitwhweniceeit is 0/22,will see three straight in
the money finishes and ignore that they all came on the fair circuit.
Hate taking a horse that lost its last by 18 but at least it came
against much better horses. If alive in the P6 let it ride. If not,
sit this one out and wonder why people bet real money on races like this.

Went off at 4-1, finished 3rd

Race 3 - Us northern CA folks get to see a real race,
Now Victory was great in his last but this is a G3, not a $75k.
Flamethrowintexan has great numbers but has never won on grass. If he
goes off at decent odds I will get on him while sticking with
Fantastic Spain who finished 4 behind the Tin Man and has always run
against real horses,

I have a very orginal excuse for this one. Baze flew
down the strtch and missed by a head. The winner, the
non-turf horse, appeared to have set a new track record
but afterwards we were told that it will not count
because the rail had been moved thereby making race 59
feet shorter than the list 1 1/8 mile. Add that lost
distace and we win. I was,however. watching the race
behind the owners, who seemed to pleased to have
pocketed $90,000 and not upset about not getting the
record.


Race4 - Tempted to go with a first timer but will take
Fillie by the Bay whose only bad race was a G1 at Dmr. Add Secret
Bargain to the exacta.

Fillie by the Bay never showed anything and Secret
ran out. Starting to lose confidence in myself.

Race 5 - Again, the Baze factor.I do not like horses
going against winners for the first time and with low odds even more
reason to bet against Devon's Queen. Therefore I take Patranzi whose
only bad one was her first. If ahead at this point include an
exacta box with Devons and Celines Melody who comes with a long
layoff.

Patranzi survives a nonsensical objection and pays
$9.20. I go to the information window to find out how
you cash a winning ticket.

Race 6-Only doing this because I promised to do the entire card. Other than the first timers Danzadar Cat is the only one in the 0 for 30 plus crew that does not have a bad race. The odds will reflect that but you get what you can take.

Went off at 3-1 and ran like an 0/23 horse. Never
bet races like this even if you promise to.

Race 7- I don't like anything here but will go with
Glengoffe if he gets 4-1 or more because he ran well after a
layoff. The Form likes Jack Hatt but I see a 3yo already going the wrong way.

Neither finished in the money but at least the winner
paid $70 to someone.

Race 8 - Gemstone Rush has improved Beyers in each of
her last 6 and if you get the 2-1 the ML shows with Baze go for
it. Add Calamity Girl and In other Words for the exacta.

One of my three finished in the money

Race 9- Against my own advice take Baze with Sabi
Sand on the drop, For fun do a ten cent perfecta box
adding Stand by Your Flag, Brahma Bull and Mav Cat.

Sabi Sand was scratched so I added Marsh Creek to the
equation. Should have stuck with a tri which paid $16.

OK, had I won the P6 (It paid $39,000) you would not
quit your job to live on my picks so, likewise, give
me another chance next week on the Breeders Cup.

Free advice - The advance BC past performance edition
of the Form is now on sale at your local alcohol
beverage dispener and online. Nothing wrong with
having a week to do 8 races instead of waiting for
Friday night.