(A) ranked horses: 4 wins, 3 losses.
(B) ranked horses: 3 wins, 13 losses
HORSE RACING FREE PICKS: GOOD CHALK, BAD CHALK, AUG 13.
BAD CHALKS (B)
Horses rated (A) will win about 35% of the time.
Horses rated (B) will win about 25% of the time.
11-Flamingo Lane (A) 5/2 Splendid form. Won at 1/1.
Maybe: #6 Revealing Moment 12/1 Sharp in last turf races. May be the best horse in the race.
5-Coast of Sangria (B) 5/2 But #2 and #1 are just as fast. Failed at 5/2.
3-River Rocks 4/5 (B) Muddy victory will oversell him to the crowd.
1-Salutos Amigos. (A) 5/2 Salute him! Drops from graded stakes with the right trainer/jockey. Place 8/5.
8- Belly of the Whale (B) 2/1 Impressive return for new trainer, and has the best jockey. But this is a chaos race if there ever was one. Out at 8/5.
The capable longshot list includes #3, #5, #7 and the AE horses #14 and #15. These are all pretty similar in abilities, which suggests selecting them by price. Or going deep if you’re playing exotics. This race will be all about the good trip.
4-Summer Breezing (B) 5/2. Out at 5/2.
#1 Upgrade is the better low-odds choice.
Since this is a turf sprint, some “maybe” horses deserve attention.
Maybe: #3 Cajun Breeze at 20/1. Early speed in a route last time, he cuts back to a distance where he ran quite well. Would need good trip to beat his betters, but at that price…
Maybe: #7 Dreamsgonewild. Has won 2-of-3 lately, and crowd will dismiss this “Jersey horse.” Won 11/1.
Maybe: #9 Mr. Vegas. Beat nobody at Canterbury. But May and June races suggest he’d have a chance with a lucky trip at the shorter distance.
Maybe #11 Escapist. Toss that last troubled trip.
Maybe #12 Bye Bye Bernie. Getting sharper in 3rd race of the year.
3-Aigue Marine (B) 5/2 Certainly capable, but…
#2 Viva Rafaela is much better if she can handle the distance.
#6 Irish Mission. Can handle the distance. Plenty of stamina. 6/1 ML. Won at 3/1.
4-John’s Island (A) 3/1 Can’t blame him for a mediocre performance in a G2 at 18/1. He’s much better placed here. Mid pack at 3/1.
8-Hard Enough (A) 3/1. New to Jacobson, and dropped to this level for the first time. Won at 2/1/
Maybe #9 Dreaming Of Danny. 12/1. Low-win trainer, but could sneak in. Place at 9/2.
4-Magic Mesa (B) 5/2. Show at 4/5.
#2 is just as fast, but has had her form obscured by that last race, which was on synthetic. And she’s listed at 8/1. Place at 8/1
1-No Its Not (B) And maybe it’s not to be. Show at 3/1
#2 just might wire ‘em. Place at 9/5.
10-Seal Team Six (B) 3/1. Lousy at 5/2.
Might be defeated in combat by #1 Greek God. Win 7/5
6-He’s Got Talent (B) 8/5. And he may. He certainly stomped a field of nobodies down in DuPont’s fiefdom. But he’s never raced at the Shore. Awful at 6/5.
The sleeper in this field is #5 Ease on Bai. Two of his last three were on the “wrong” surface. He won his last two fast track events at MTH. Show at 3/1.
MONMOUTH EIGHT
8-Fearthefalcon (B) 3/1. Place at 8/5
The problem is #9 Pared, who’s just as good, who had a nasty trip last time, and who is dropping in class. Out at 2/1.
11-Chunnel (B) 3/1. Out at 3/1
It’s not that he’s outside in a turf race. It’s that #3 Ginger Goose is just as likely.
1-Double Desert (A) 5/2. A longshot-type trainer is finally dropping this horse in with a chance. Last race he was 53/1. Before that 28/1. Easy win at 4/5.
4-Hurricane Mimi (B) 1/1 Doesn’t deserve the pounding she’ll get at the windows. Win at 4/5.
#1 Sister Rolly deserves a look.
7-Rejoiceful (A) 2/1. Trainer and jockey make the difference here. Win at 3/2.
8-Dig A LIttle Deeper (B) 3/1. Win at 3/1.
And he’ll have to.
He just doesn’t have that much of an advantage of #1 Wales End, at 8/1. Or #3 Western Tune at 4/1. There are two other dark horses in here: #5 Mizzen the Action at 12/1. He’s won twice, including last race, under Skye. The other is #7 Northern Bruce, in good form and listed at 9/2.
11-The Best Glacier (B) 3/1. Gets a trainer upgrade, but has never raced at Woodbine or on poly, and his works are dull. Dull at 4/1.
#10 Valid’s Best is 2-for-3 this year, and 6-for-13 at Woodbine. Listed at 8/1, and it would be shocking if the crowd let him run at that price. Simply awful, 8/1.
3-Agawa (B) 2/1. Very, very slow out of the gate. Trainer and jockey are a plus, though. Place 2/1.
#4 Inclusa and #8 Indygo have nice races at the distance.
7-Puntrooskie (A) 2/1. 4th at 3/1.
Main rival #6 Constantino has never run a bad race. But the favorite has won tougher races.
13-Another Bid (B) 3/1. Always runs gamely, but he’s 0-for-11. Can Emma Jayne whisper something magic into his ear? Show at 2/1.
If not #3 and #9 look toughest. Won at 4/1
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