CANTERBURY PARK HORSE RACING AUGUST 23
(Numbers in parantheses are my own figs. In the 700 races where I’ve tested them, they out-perform Beyers and Primes. In my system, a one-point advantage is significant.)
CANTERBURY PARK HORSE RACING AUGUST 23
(Numbers in parantheses are my own figs. In the 700 races where I’ve tested them, they out-perform Beyers and Primes. In my system, a one-point advantage is significant.)
RACE ONE
The strongest horses have no early speed.
The pace battle:
#3 Echo Canyon will try to wire them under a new trainer. She has held her speed against winners. If she runs her very best race, she can hold them off at 10/1
#4 Love for Lori may pop the gate but has faded vs. winners.
#5 Sophie’s Cupcake, under Seth Martinez, will speed and might hold at a nice price. Seth knows this horse and could coax a win.
#7 Kati Can wired maidens, but gave up against winners.
So it looks like weak speed, strong closers. Consider a flyer on #3 or #5 if the crowd is giving 10/1 or more. Otherwise:
1- Brooke Academy (19)
Will have to buck up from 2nd or 3rd in the stretch.
9- Royal Bluff (19)
Will be far back until late.
RACE TWO
In turf racing it’s all about the odds. No chalk, dammit!
#1 Sweet Birmingham. You never know about a horse’s 2nd turf race. Consider a flyer if let’s say 30/1.
#5 Fleet Performer. First grass, sure it’s possible, but the board should offer much more than 6/1.
#12 Fiona Cat (23)
New trainer, and although he’s no turf genius, Dean Butler is.
8- Lu’s Lullaby (22)
Always in the battle after the turn.
9- Voodoo (22)
Has Litfin figured out what went wrong last time?
RACE THREE
A turf allowance.
#5 Don’t Claim Me. Monster win, but 5/1 too low for first grass.
#6 Makoshika. Maiden win, sloppy win, 8 losses, first grass. Nah.
#7 At My Discretion. Three turf tries, three bad fades.
Better choices:
4- Chairman Crooks (26)
Great form, excellent turf rider.
2- Lotsa Mischief (25)
Versatile horse with good turf form, five wins in 12 tries.
RACE FOUR
Mac Roberstson’s got two in here. He used to be the Giant of Canterbury, but that’s before the purses got inflated. Now Michael Stidham’s shipping here. Stidham, for god’s sake.
#1 Stellabrini. Probably needs a class drop.
#3 Thunder and Honey. Mac and Bell are a power, but since this isn’t the fastest horse, the 3/1 morning line kinda sucks.
#4 Mimi’s Obsession. Lucky maiden win, okay turf race. Meh.
#5 Rockin the Bleu’s. Mac and Seth. Probably overmatched, though. Won at 5-1
#6 Kato Miss. One dimensional maiden wire job.
2- Appealing Dancer (22)
Good form, good trainer, good jockey.
7- Holy White Socks (21)
Will try to wire ‘em, and just might.
RACE FIVE
One horse, the shipper, looks much the best.
6- Partyinslowmotion (22)
Stidham doesn’t often ship here, desperate to get sprint win.
RACE SIX
#2 Friarcracker. Lucky maiden seeks weak spot. Sorry, not here.
#6 Saturday Senstation. Needs a race.
#8 Ras’ Rebel. Iowa maiden winner under new trainer. Probably overmatched, though Valorie Lund is no slouch.
1- Jackson Station (23)
Right. It’s Diodoro who’s become the Monster of Canterbury.
5- Mount Stepney (23)
This is the trainer’s sweet spot
7- Fiddler Blue (23)
No speed, but nice late move.
4- Guard the Rock (21)
Inconsistent, but good when good. Demand big odds.
RACE SEVEN
#2 Tale Be Told. Probably needs a race, but Diodoro seems to be knocking some sense into this horse’s head.
#4 Princeapalee. An 11/1 upset last time, but doesn’t have the early speed that his competitors do, not in this one.
#8 Led Da Cowboy Rock. Intriguing. The last two times this gelding was asked to romp home at this distance at Canterbury, he did so romp. Once at 11/1! Speed figures be damned. If the crowd throws double digits up on the board, one might be well advised to slip your local mutuel teller a couple of bucks.
1- Listen You Fool (24)
“I’m going to win.” Is that what this horse is saying to the fools? Well perhaps, but there is that nasty tendency to Show. Show bettors, take $2 out of your moth-eaten wallets and see if you can win 80 cents.
7- Gold Rock (23)
Lousy when in hot pace, but a danger if they’re slow early.
RACE EIGHT
Many of these should probably give up. However there are three evenly-matched contenders worth pondering:
11- Parading Gold (19)
Nicely placed in this trainer’s sweet spot.
2- Wheeler George (19)
Looks good early, and just awful in the stretch.
4- Erin Prairie (19)
Chronic fader dropping to the bottom class. Is that promising?
(Numbers in parantheses are my own figs. In the 700 races where I’ve tested them, they out-perform Beyers and Primes. In my system, a one-point advantage is significant.)
The strongest horses have no early speed.
The pace battle:
#3 Echo Canyon will try to wire them under a new trainer. She has held her speed against winners. If she runs her very best race, she can hold them off at 10/1
#4 Love for Lori may pop the gate but has faded vs. winners.
#5 Sophie’s Cupcake, under Seth Martinez, will speed and might hold at a nice price. Seth knows this horse and could coax a win.
#7 Kati Can wired maidens, but gave up against winners.
Will have to buck up from 2nd or 3rd in the stretch.
Won- but disqualified.
Will be far back until late.
In turf racing it’s all about the odds. No chalk, dammit!
Led but faded badly at 49-1.
Won at 4-1.
New trainer, and although he’s no turf genius, Dean Butler is.
Even money on the turf? Pass.
Always in the battle after the turn.
Not this time.
Has Litfin figured out what went wrong last time?
Paid 5.80 to show.
A turf allowance.
#5 Don’t Claim Me. Monster win, but 5/1 too low for first grass.
#6 Makoshika. Maiden win, sloppy win, 8 losses, first grass. Nah.
#7 At My Discretion. Three turf tries, three bad fades.
Great form, excellent turf rider.
Blew away the field at 9/5.
Versatile horse with good turf form, five wins in 12 tries.
Failed at 1/1.
Mac Roberstson’s got two in here. He used to be the Giant of Canterbury, but that’s before the purses got inflated. Now Michael Stidham’s shipping here. Stidham, for god’s sake.
#3 Thunder and Honey. Mac and Bell are a power, but since this isn’t the fastest horse, the 3/1 morning line kinda sucks.
#4 Mimi’s Obsession. Lucky maiden win, okay turf race. Meh.
#5 Rockin the Bleu’s. Mac and Seth. Probably overmatched, though. Won at 5-1
#6 Kato Miss. One dimensional maiden wire job.
Good form, good trainer, good jockey.
Bad finish at 9/2
Will try to wire ‘em, and just might.
One horse, the shipper, looks much the best.
Stidham doesn’t often ship here, desperate to get sprint win.
Lazy start, place finish at 7/5.
#2 Friarcracker. Lucky maiden seeks weak spot. Sorry, not here.
#6 Saturday Senstation. Needs a race.
#8 Ras’ Rebel. Iowa maiden winner under new trainer. Probably overmatched, though Valorie Lund is no slouch.
Right. It’s Diodoro who’s become the Monster of Canterbury.
This is the trainer’s sweet spot
No speed, but nice late move.
Inconsistent, but good when good. Demand big odds.
Won at 8/5.
#2 Tale Be Told. Probably needs a race, but Diodoro seems to be knocking some sense into this horse’s head.
#4 Princeapalee. An 11/1 upset last time, but doesn’t have the early speed that his competitors do, not in this one.
#8 Led Da Cowboy Rock. Intriguing. The last two times this gelding was asked to romp home at this distance at Canterbury, he did so romp. Once at 11/1! Speed figures be damned. If the crowd throws double digits up on the board, one might be well advised to slip your local mutuel teller a couple of bucks.
“I’m going to win.” Is that what this horse is saying to the fools? Well perhaps, but there is that nasty tendency to Show. Show bettors, take $2 out of your moth-eaten wallets and see if you can win 80 cents.
Exactly. Showed and paid $2.80. Where else but horse racing can you get such magnificent payoffs?
Lousy when in hot pace, but a danger if they’re slow early.
Dismissed the 5/2 winner #10 To the Stars because no race on this surface in last 10.
Many of these should probably give up. However there are three evenly-matched contenders worth pondering:
Nicely placed in this trainer’s sweet spot.
Stumbled, vanned off. Board said 9-1.
Looks good early, and just awful in the stretch.
Wired at 2-1.
Chronic fader dropping to the bottom class. Is that promising?
Miserable at 5-2.
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