RACING JAN 22

AQUEDUCT 8

THE TOBOGGAN SPRINT

1-Driven by Success. Monster.

1A-Calibrachoa. Ditto.

2-Independence War. Claimed from Maggi. Absolutely could win at big odds. Would need to step up only a bit in class and speed. Proven at Aqueduct. Bettors will probably overlook because he is "claim jumping."

3-Endless Circle. Monster. Absolutely capable with a good trip.

4-Fastus Cactus. Must have lead. And in this race, he'll have to hold off horses of a class he's never seen before. Would be funny if he (A) wired 'em or (B) blew out the pace setters. It's not out of the question.

5-Flat Bold. Beaten by Independence War in Philly. But likely to go off at half the price.

6-Temecula Creek. Monster with layoff. Has the credentials.

7-Jack on the Rocks. Beaten by many, often.

• The dynamic duo will be beaten down to 3/5 by the crowd, presumably. This seems like the best betting race of all today's features. (1) Fastus Cactus is capable of ripping out of the gate and forcing the others to keep up early or cede him a wire win. (2) The #2, #3, #5 and #6 all have a legit shot of winning on class and or speed. Toss the #7, and you have good longshot bets all over the place.

FAIRGROUNDS 10

THE LECOMTE G3

1-Wilkinson. Toss that slop. Nice maiden win. Showed courage there, and has no trouble passing horses.

2-Action Ready. Brett+Rosie. Toss that easy turf win, and all you've got is the winner of a relatively cheap maiden. Really doesn't have the figs to command a low price.

3-Mobete. Slop maiden win. First route, first try on dry track. Has heart and could step up and win. We just don't know. If he improves 10 points from his last speed, he could be right there at the wire. Total unknown. But there's a small profit for this stable even if Mobete finishes last, so this may not be a serious entry.

4-Justin Phillip. Asmussen+Shawn. Beat Wilkinson in the slop. A real fighter.

5-Pants on Fire. Breen+Jersey Joe. That Aqueduct win makes him the class of the race. But he wilted against classy horses last time.

• It looks like Justin Phillips and Pants on Fire will run up for the exacta. Neither would be a surprise as the winner. Not much chance for traffic problems and in any event, no monster closer here. It should be a two or at most three horse pace battle.

GULFSTREAM 9

THE SWEETEST CHANT 1 MILE TURF

1-War Prospector. Two upsets! How in the name of God did the bettors let this horse go off at 41-1 last time? The trainer is a 30% man! Ridiculous. That said, she will have to rise three classes to beat Kathmanblu. And she will have to win a one-mile turf race on the lead. There are at least two horses in here with better early speed.

2-Tiger Girl. 2-for-3 on grass. Ignore those dirt junkers and we have a pretty good turf horse. But those victories came against much cheaper horses at LAD. In both, she was able to lead and hold, and that's unlikely here.

3-Kathmanblu. Monster BC turf. Nice layoffs and work after big G2 win. She could be a G1 horse picking up loose change here. Trainer is 26% dirt-to-turf. Julien aboard can't hurt. The last time she met a field like this, at KEE, she circled the field 6-wide and drew off.

4-Bellaridge. Won last, laid off. This low-percentage trainer has surprised the crowd twice with this horse. Nevertheless, she only has a maiden turf win on her resume.

5- Nina Fever. 5-for-9. Nice win in KY and a super trainer. Here's the main challenger to Kathmanblu. She is the real threat to wire the field. She has been the dominant horse in most of her races, but that will change here. In her last race at HOL, she dropped out when facing horses of less accomplishment.

6-Excited. Two near misses in NY. Pletcher-Velazquez. Like so many of the others in here, a good horse but outclassed against Kathmanblu.

7-Holidaysatthefarm. First level allowance winner. Beat by Florida-breds last time. Magnificent stretch runner and will be moving into the trifecta late.

8-Michelle's Trip. First level allowance winner. On grass, nice try every time. Over her head, though.

• Nina Fever seems like the front runner and should stay out there into the turn. It doesn't seem possible she will hold off Kathmanblu in the stretch, but who knows? Holidaysatthefarm may run past tiring horses in the stretch, and this wouldn't be a horrible trifecta play.

OAKLAWN 8

THE PIPPIN 1 1/16 MILE DIRT

1-Afleet Deceit. Good trainer, three months off, but seems to lack the speed. Two wins against weak competition. Has won at this track and distance, but not in this class. A behind-the-pace runner who has only won in 5-horse fields when she gets a good early position.

2-Stage Magic. Layoff and workout. Calvin for Helen Pitts. Toss the turf experiment and see a big win against tough horses at Churchill. Two wins on or near the lead.

3-She's All In. Layoff and workout. Lots of wins, but all against much cheaper competition. The 6/1 morning line is far too small. Seems simply outclassed. No wins above maiden except in slop and on turf.

4-High Quail. Toss the slop races and we have a good allowance horse. Shrewd trainer but hard to see a step up here, especially at that 4/1 ML. Needs the lead to win.

5-Tidal Pool. Has been picking up purses against much better horses. Two good races here at OP. Positive layoff with bullet works. Highest speed figure at the distance. Best overall speed figure. Can win from off the pace.

6-Satan's Quick Chick. Has never been at OP, no pure dirt race in last 10. Positive layoff, bullet work. Has a Grade-2 win, and seems to have a significant class advantage. Will be tough the stretch run.

7-Absinthe Minded. Layoff and workout. One win at Oaklawn and a nice allowance win at Churchill. Lucas has been running this filly over her head for most of her career. It's been working for him in an economic sense... Her only win lately was a wire romp at Churchill. But there are a couple in here that are faster early.

• OVERALL it's hard to see past Satan's Quick Chick because of her proven class. She'd be a no brainer except for her limited dirt racing. There, Tidal Pool seems to be the best of the lot... In a small field, without traffic problems, Satan's Quick Chick seems likely to put on a show in the stretch.