OCTOBER 30

KEENELAND RACE 1 CLAIMER AT 5.5 FURLONGS

Obvious horse: #10, Letters for Lunch. Has the figs, form and is second from layoff. (NO REAL THREAT)

#1 Hitch Your Wagon. Zero for five at this level lately, no early speed, and a tendency to show up. A 50% shot to make the trifecta. (WIN 5/1)

#2 Toclosetothemusic. Wire threat who won last and likes to place. About 35% chance to place.

#4 Scratch Turns. Won last but does not have the figs, so the price will be right. (10-1 NEVER IN IT)

#5 Contempt. Layoff. Won 5 and placed 9 of 21 A-W races. Has to come from behind and is not a lock by any means, but the 15:1 ML seems generous. (SHOWED AT 39-1 AND PAID 17.60, BEST PRICE ON THE BOARD)

#11 Pollard's Babe. Two disastrous races and a layoff. 0-for-8 on the poly. Two interesting things, though. (1) This trainer and horse have managed to sneak two longshot wins past the crowd. (2) Three bullets in three weeks. Morning line seems atrociously low at 5:1, probably because of those bullets. I'd demand 10 to 1. (OUT OF IT)

*Horses that won their last race and go off as longshots today should usually be bet. The crowd's most common mistakes are underestimating wins, layoffs and early speed fades.*

RACE 2

Obvious: #3 Blushing Dixie. But... This horse came back from a layoff, dropped into the claimers, and Maker got a bad performance on the turf. She has never run on all-weather. (FAILED AT 4/5)

Plenty of longshot angles here:

#5 Snicklebritches. Absolutely capable on form and figs.

#2 Walk On. New owner-trainer raises to ridiculous level, but could sneak into the trifecta. Has won on A-W.

#4 Chickalee. New trainer and some nice turf runs.

#6 Royal Madame. Capable trainer and wanted a piece of her last race.

#7 Truly Lucky. Early speed but lousy races on A-W. (WIN 7/2)

#8 After the Storm. Asking a lot in the class rise, but new trainer may help.

RACE 3 MAIDEN TWOS

#8 Truman's Commander. Tried last time and has new trainer. But these kinds of races are low-information, and so notorious for longshots. (LOST AT 5:1)

RACE 4, $40K CLAIMER, 7F

Obvious horse: #7 Inca King. He is 9/17 in the last two years, and coming from a layoff. (WON AT 4/5)

#1 Entry. Capable at best, but off form.
#5 Bear's Rocket. Might remember his big races of the past.
#8 Crested. A fabulous horse at this level. Second off the layoff, probably pointed to this race, and a win at this track and distance coming from far behind. One-for-four lately when given a fair chance by his trainers, suggesting 3-1 as a good price. (SHOWED AT 9/1 AND PAID 4.80)

RACE 5 MAIDEN SPECIAL

Obvious horse: #10 Sterling Silver. But... seems reluctant to get in there and fight.
#12 Storm Palm. First timer has the works and the buzz.
In races like this, we can't be surprised by a surprise. (F1 JAZZ LIFE WON AT 3-1)

RACE 6 TURF ALLOWANCE FOR WINNERS OF THREE

Obvious: #7 Romacaca. Big fig, 38% trainer and has had a rest. Might have won last race, a Grade 1, if it had been at a mile. Wins half his turf races. (SCRATCH)

Most other horses seem to have little chance. But...
#8 Seniga. In form and outrunning her odds. (WIN 2-1)
#9 Happiness. Layoff and certainly capable if Romacaca gets a bad ride. Might make a good exacta partner.


RACE 7 MAIDEN TWOS
Obvious: #2 Ivy Connection. But... a lot of surprises could lurk in this race. (BEAT BY FIRSTER)

RACE 8, 6.5 FURLONGS, $100K CLAIMER

1-Charlie's Moment. Godolphin brings back a G3 winner after a year and a half in the pasture. Gomez. rides. Trainer angles, if you believe in them, suggest 3-1 fair odds. But man, that is a long layoff. Best poly race might not be good enough.

2-Super Robusto. Morning line favorite has the back speed but bad form in his layoff return. Won a similar race on Chicago poly with a win from the back. But was not close in that last race at any point. Not much of a favorite, but 4 wins in last 9 means Super would be worth a longshot price.

3-Grand Traverse. Won this race last year. Has Calvin. Ran a sharp race in returning from vacation. Does have late energy on the plastic.

4-Agastach. Sharp layoff race and now a rise in class. Happens to like racing at Keeneland. As good a chance as any. (WIN 9/2)

5-Prom Shoes. William Fires is trying the hard-working 6-year-old in a new role as sprinter. After 36 races, you can't expect Prom Shoes to become a speed horse.

6-Heart of A King.Michael Pino is a 3-1 guy, and this four-year-old has 5 wins on the poly including one in Lexington. Heart will be in the mix early.

7-Eaton's Gift. Dale Romans takes this horse back, and may be able to resume their profitable partnership. Eaton's Gift is an absolutely capable longshot and the class of the field, having won a Grade 2 and a $100K on dirt. New trainer and layoff means we can ignore that lousy last race. (13-1 MEDIOCRE RACE)

8-Western Prospector. Failed badly last time, and generally going backward.

9-Celtic New Year. Layoff may help, but not enough to overcome lack of proven class.

10-Bee Line's Edge. Two bad races on poly and no class.

11-Moralist. Tammy Domenosky is a good trainer, and this is one of her better horses. Moralist has lots of wins, but has been beating cheapskates and nobodies in Minnesota and at Hawthorne. He'll have better luck elsewhere.

KEENELAND RACE 9, FAYETTE, GRADE 2, 9F.

1-Stately Victor. The Bluegrass winner returns to the scene of the triumph after an impressive win in Toronto.

3-Successful Dan. Big impressive win, cheap race. Has never run 9 furlongs and so the 3-1 price seems suspect. If you're a figure player, he figures. But he has never faced a field that wasn't all cupcakes. Competition plus distance equals an overbet horse...

6-Mint Chip. 2/2 at the distance, but the credentials end there: No class, no figs, awful form, beaten 10 lengths by Successful Dan, who ain't the best horse in the gate.

7-Exhi. He has never lost on the waxy surface. His one win at the 9 furlong distance was a wire job. Has the class, trainer and jockey you'd expect in a winner. His poly wins include all sorts of pace scenarios, so he's not one dimensional. He's going to be an early bird...

9-Dubious Miss. Why name a gelding Miss? Oh, never mind. Calvin rides a hoss that has never lost in 3 Keeneland races. Dubious wired a Grade 3 race last time at 9 furlongs. Has the figs and Keeneland performaces are fantastic.

10-Cherokee Artist. Layoff, and Motion Graham nails these at a 25% rate. Nice record at Keeneland. So why 30-1 morning line? Been firing Keeneland morning bullets. Had energy in only good 9 furlong showing, but that was turf. (16-1 AND DEAD LAST)

Six of the 10 horses have early speed, which hints at them wearing each other down.

RACE 10. TWELVE EXHAUSTING FURLONGS ON THE GRASS FOR MAIDEN WINNER FILLIES.
#2 Dance Pass. The only other horse with credentials at better than 9 furlongs. With Gomez up, and with a couple of near misses in long races, I think I'm looking at the winner here. (NEVER CLOSER THATN 5TH)
#6 Miss Rufus. Two good races at the distance.No other horse has succeeded at this absurd distance. To compound the absurdity, she's a speed horse and is likely to go to the front. Worth a bet if the price is anywhere near morning line of 10:1.
#8 Ermine Slippers. Led an 11-furlong race and "succumbed" to finish four back. Leparoux "always saves something for the end." Seems about three lengths slower than Miss Rufus at the distance.

(F1 CODETTA WINS AT 5/2)





OKAY, MY BETS...
WON TWO RACES IN ABOUT 15 bets, big loser

blind f2:
500
370
210
270
$13.50 returned on $10 bet
So go ahead and see if you can outhandicap the f2...

and as for exotics you can add power to your exactas, tris and superfectas by putting the F2 in the top slot. You know the #3 is weak in the top spot. You could probably drop the three and play the 2-1-4&5 or maybe a nice $2 ticket, the 2/4,5
$1 results...

Kee 1 x
Kee 2 $30
Kee 3 x
Kee 4 x
Kee 5 x
Kee 6 $24
Kee 7 x
Kee 8 x
Kee 9 x
Kee 10 x
Overall $54 for $20
















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