20.00 BETS
17.80 RETURN
First:
1 Over the Slump. (4/1) Switches to Centeno after win. After an awful debut, Over the Slump was claimed, rested, and came back for a game win in traffic. His third career race could easily improve.
Likely favorites 7 and 2 seem strong. SHOWED @2.60
Second:
3 Nudara, (20/1) 3rd career race, but need a giant price to compensate for the risk. She will be completely overlooked by the crowd because she's never finished strong in two career races. But that touch of early speed means there's a small chance she could wake up at a monster price.
Likely favorite 7 seems strong. The 6 seems weak. STUMBLED, PULLED UP.
Third:
2 Music Seeker. (15/1) Improving, and new trainer. His old boss never gave him a fair shot. OUT OF IT AT 43-1
6 Ben's Bullet might well wire this at a decent price. ALSO RAN AT 7.40
Favorite 8 seems strong. But we know what happens to people who bet favorites. They are taken out behind the barn and shot.
Fourth: Lots of good longshots, Dutch.
1 Drica's Luck. Toss last, see two wins. This horse is 3-for-9 and on that basis alone should not be a 15-1 longshot. Nobody knows how she'll do on turf, but in a field of 10, her natural odds would be 9-1. She is game to pass horses in the stretch. LEAD, FADE AT 12.30
2 Here I Come. (8/1) Top trainer, won last. Come-home time needs to improve, but long odds might compensate for that. ALSO AT 930
7 She's a Sleeper. (3/1) Trainer, jockey and speed. WIN 3.00
Likely favorite 4 faces real competition for the first time.
Fifth:
1 Stack the Deck. (20/1) Longshot speed on the rail. Interesting that after two miserable fades, the trainer is raising him in class. Stack has the highest speed at distance, which is certainly a play worth 20/1. LEAD, FADE AT 25-1
Favorite 5 vulnerable.
Sixth:
9 The Zia Star. Longshot from hell. Laid off after a subtle improvement in her second race. NOTHING AT 27.80
No telling what's going to happen, might as well take a flier.
Seventh:
6 Pyrite Halo. Rapidly improving form. Bumpy flight last time, but just missed against 11-1 competition. This horse has found his winning level. SHOW AT 8.80
10 Dynamite Jewel. Switch to Centeno. Won last. Will probably be claimed. Is it too much to ask an older claimer to hold his form through 3 races? We'll find out, but I wouldn't lay big money at short odds. On this... or anything else. NOTHING AT 2.40
Of the likely favorites, only 10 seems strong.
Eighth
4: Lightning Power. Trainer has been too ambitious. He finally got a good race out of Lightning, so of course raised him in class. This runner has gone off at impossible odds for 9 straight races, which is an indication of a unrealistic trainer. Still, if the 20/1 ML holds, this horse could freak out and win. NOTHING AT 29-1
5: Rumor Has It. There's a chance the crowd will overlook his class. But last time he was just coming off a layoff, it took him four races to shape up. His career odds would be 4-1 so, at skimpy odds, you're trading dollars at best. LAST AT 6-1
Despite the gaudy figs, favorite 9 is vulnerable.
Ninth 1 Are We Cruisin. Third career race after promising layoff. Misbehaved in the gate last time and faded. This race represents probably his best chance of reform. And at 20/1 ML... OUT AT 31-1
7 Barbara's Choice. Made a move last time and posted best fig ever. SHOW AT 4.10
3 Souper Moon. ML 8/1 would be a great bargain. Layoff and new trainer combined with early speed. WIN AT 7.50
Favorite 4 could be strong, but has been off more than a year.
Tenth 6 She's So Special. Dangerous if loose. Missed by two lengths against classier field. PLACE AT 4.60
9 Cherry on Top. Zooms to front. But not worth small odds against all this competition.
WIN AT 1.30
Eleventh 1 Doc Green. Early speed, new trainer. OUT AT 4-1
9 Cowboy Steve. Obvious, and price will probably be too short. WIN 2.00
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