Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Thursday, April 02, 2009

KEENELAND, APRIL 4TH

RACE TWO: 10 FURLONGS ON THE AW
111-AW Six Shots 0... Showed last, 2-back. Best spd/distance in a race way back. In fact he is the only horse who ever did run this distance.
114-AW Sharpest Cat -3... a 2-1 horse on AW. Has some distance breeding.
106 King Caden -5... 4th, 4-back on turf. Desormeaux boys take him over, but new to AW and hasn't beat anybody real, ever, in 19 races. WIN 2.30
111-AW Nafass -8 ... loves to place on AW.
110-AW Devil's Attitude -9 ... place last, cheap wins, but on AW.

THREE MAIDEN: NO HORSE HAS EVER RUN THIS DISTANCE/SURFACE.
3 M 112.2 Laureate Conductor 0
3 M 110.5 Kings Village -1
3 M 112.1 Seeking The Sluice (1ST) -2
3 M 112.7 Cullinan (1ST) -3
3 M 111.0 Oree (1ST) -4 WIN 17.80
3 M 110.5 Sabago -4
3 M 111.8 Paydirt (1ST) -11

FOUR, TURF ALLOWANCE, 12 FURLONGS.
114 Silver Mountain 0 ... two runs at 11F, won one, far back in the other. Weak turf jock.
114 Expansion* -1... GP winner at distance/surface.
113 Sudden War* -5 ... 2-for-2 and improving, won at GP turf/distance. WIN 2.00
113 Hidden Glance* -5... has KEE win at distance, surface.

PICK 3 $132 PAYS $211.

FIVE, MAIDEN ROUTE
5 M 113.2 Perfect Shower (1ST) 0
5 M 114.6 Miro (1ST) -1 WIN 2.00
5 M 111.7 Luv Gov -5
5 M 112.1 Just Right (1ST) -9
5 M 110.4 Indy's Spell ()1ST) -9

PICK 3 $160 PAYS $295

SIX, ALLOWANCE, 7 FURLONGS
111 Luster (1ST) 0... improving with each race, but first AW.
112-AW Lady's Laughter -4... bad post, placed last against better. WIN 6.30
113 French Dip (1ST) -6 ... improving, just missed last, first AW.
110-AW Tsunami Bertie -9... 5-back in only allowance. Bad post.

$80 PICK 3 PAYS $117.


SEVEN, 6 FURLONG OPTIONAL CLAIMER.
119 Rollers (1st) 0... obviously the class horse, but unproven on AW
116-AW Forest Attack -2... needed the rest, back on poly he likes.
116-AW Timbucto -5... proven on AW, but not at KEE.
113-AW Outta Tune (1/9 AW) -6... strong win, but surface questions.
115-AW Rock Gold -9 ... successful place closer on AW
115-AW Lanzera -10 ... jock's a question, but worth high odds and/or exotics.
116-AW St. Joe -11... Desormeaux rides, could be competitive despite odds.

$140 PICK 3 PAYS ZERO.


EIGHT, TURF ALLOWANCE, 8.5 FURLONGS.
Almost anybody could win, so demand well over 5-1.
119 Parading 0... long vacation with 16% return.
119 Corrupt -1... awful last, way over his head in a G2.
118 Classic Campaign -2
117 Transduction Gold -3 over his head last time.
118 Fifteen Love -3... still looking for first NA turf.
117 Society's Chairman -4 7.10
118 Icy Atlantic -5... 8 years old, but can still play the game.
116 Crested -5
116 Pennington -5... 4 months off with 20% return.
119 Stream Of Gold -10

BREAK IN PICK THREE... WAY TOO MANY QUALIFIED HORSES...

NINE, THE ASHLAND, 8.5 FURLONGS
118 What A Pear (1ST) 0... can't run better than she has, but first AW.
118-AW Stardom Bound -5... tough closer proven on AW, but odds will be absurd.
118-AW Dream Empress -7... two nice AW races. Worth longshot, place, underneath.

TEN, TURF ALLOWANCE, ONE MILE.
112 La Mousse 0... only at a price.
114 Laureldean Gale -2... place horse, if in.
115 Receipt -3... doesn't seem game, not worth a small price.
114 Fan Dame -7... definitely in this race.

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