RACE ONE, W2 CLAIMER
2-Truly Broadway, 8/5. 112@85 Has the figs, class, trainer and jockey to win. But not a star at this distance and surface, and has a 70% chance of a stretch fade. Bennett is 42% when dropping two classes, so has to figure.
4-Pyrite Halo 7/2. 115@82. This is the third race after a layoff (19%) and she's improving a little. Last time it took six races to reach form.
5-Boracay Princess 12-1 113@84 but on turf. Twice as likely to place as to win. Is 0/3 on dirt, and was 13-back in last race. Trainer's hoping the speed horses will tire and Boracay will stride late, I suppose.
6-Hot Brew 6/1, 113@79. Another turf switcher. Has a dirt win at a mile that would do the trick here. Has been many lengths out in last four. The jock, who rode her in the last two busts, is zero for 51.
7- Mis Max 3/1 113@80. Decent dirt try in October at MNR. Far more likely to place than win.
It's hard to know who to like here. Truly Broadway is obvious on the trainer's drop. But this is a long race and she's a fader, and at 8/5 there's no money to make.
Hot Brew has the mystery jockey aboard, a Euro transfer, and it's really hard to figure why. But she does have a good stretch run and the pace bias in her favor.
Only one in 38 such races at TAM has been wired, so it really is hard up front.
Pick: Hot Brew at a price, based on running style.
TWO CLAIMER, NO WINS SINCE AUG 21.
1- Queen Maddie 3/1 (114@83). She's 2/4 at the distance and just missed a much tougher race two-back.
4- R True Lady 2/1 (111@79) tends to bounce, good race/bad race. Could win. Price is ridiculous.
5- Dual Diagnosis 5/1 (117@94) has won with this trainer, but loves to finish 2nd at Tampa. However, here's a horse that made $30K last year and is now on sale at $5K. She's six years old. She led the last race, faded badly. Switches to a low percent jockey.
Choice: Queen Maddie
THREE, CLAIMER FOR MAIDEN WINNERS
1- Atoned 5/2. Class yes, but bad post, first grass and mediocre turf breeding. At any rate he places twice as often as he wins. Hard to figure what Pletcher is doing here. This 4-year-old has won $400,000 on the dirt. Maybe this is a flyer to see if the guy has potential to extend his career as a grass racer. Even based on Pletcher's stellar record, the profits wouldn't begin until 5-1. And based on his recent record, 8-1 would be more like it.
2-Riversrunrylee 12/1. Could be 5-1 based on last win and recent record. Jock doesn't do well on grass, and can only try to wire the race. But he isn't really the speediest guy here so...
3-Classic Campaign 3/1. He's absolutely in form based on those last two races. But that win was in the slop, not on turf, and was his only win in the last 9 tries. He's 7 years old. 3-1? Come on.
Try 10-1.
4- Society's Chairman 4/1. Has won 40% of his recent races, has the class and the form. He missed by a neck last time at 9-1, beaten by Kiss the Kid. This jock has gotten a win out of him. I'd put him at more like 6/1 given that Furthest Land is in the race, but he's the second best horse.
5- Dinner in Odem 15/1. Has won 1 of last 19. No class. Owner-trainer running for pride.
6-Archer's Alyancer. 20/1. Another O&T but with a better shot. Only 2/13 recently but has won a decent race and could shock the crowd with the right trip. More like 10 or 12 to one. Has won at 9-1 and 31-1, although both were at 7 furlongs.
7- Furthest Land 5-1. Is 3/7 lately with great trainer and good jockey. Has finished within 2 lengths in 6 most recent races. Winner of 3 straight, although doesn't seem to adore Jersey Joe. It probably won't matter. This horse is peaking now. He is worth almost any price down to even money.
8-Fagedaboutitsal 8-1. Placed last time against the #2. But the trainer, jockey, class and recent record all suggest double-digit odds. The trainer has a habit of putting this horse in impossible situations.
9-Victory Alleged. 10-1 seems charitable indeed. 8 years old and 1/13 lately. Trainer is 1/41 in these kinds of stakes races.
10-Affirmed Action 20-1. Has some wins, but none at class.
No comments:
Post a Comment