SA BIG CAP DAY

RACE 1: I see a scramble with 7 or 8 likely winners. Longshot play or pass.
Righto! Winner paid $13.20

RACE 2: Gorgeous Goose benefited from pace last time, and his outofsight speed figs tell me he's due for a bounce. How about Czechers?
The Goose did bounce, but Czechers tired.


RACE 3: Talking to Mom Roo. Rare consistency, versatility.
Placed to another speed qualifier.

RACE 4: Exclusive Danielle. 2/2 at the distance, no others have won at 12 F.
Broke the gate, reloaded, ran poorly. Chancellor, another qualifier, won at big odds.

RACE 5: Roar of Eagles faced the toughest competition, ran down a moderate pace from way back after a disaster start.
Won at 6/5.

RACE 6: Downhill turf maiden, pick a longshot. Or go for a hot dog.
22-1 shot wins.

RACE 7, THE SHAM
Really hard to separate the obvious two.
Colonel John
El Gato Malo
The Bad Cat seems a little better but I will take the one with the most generous tote.
Colonel John wins at the better odds.

RACE 8, THE KILROE
Who doesn't like War Monger? Saw his move at sloppy Monmouth. But I count five contenders in here and would look for 5-1. Out of Control, Artiste Royale, Storm Military... even Mr. Napper Tandy has a shot. Out of Control and Storm Military both have the running style that wins this race.
Ever A Friend wins over all my choices.

RACE 9: THE BIG CAP
I see 8 of the 14 as being legitimate.
*Champs Elysees 103@122, plus win at this track, distance. A mile and a quarter is like a sprint for this horse. By far the best bred for the distance.
*Tiago 101@123 plus 3 wins at SA, but may not be his distance.
*Medici Code 107@122. The Holderby shows he could upset this field.
*Awesome Gem 104@123. Late runner more likely to place-show than win.
*Monterey Jazz 104@122. What will Russell do with this front-runner? Can't go to the lead, can he?
*Celtic Dreamin' 102@123, Nice horse, but class, distance are wrong.
*Heat Seaker 103@122. Late runner, and maybe worth a long price, say 10-1.
*Go Between 104@125. Awesome late run in last, bred for the long run.
So we were looking for odds of 7-1 or better, and have 4 qualified.
Heat Seaker wins at 7-1
Champs Elysees at 10-1
Medici Code 11-1
Celtic Dreamin 15-1

I'm looking for good odds here, at least 5-1. The Frenchman is listed at 10-1 in the morning line, and if that holds, which I seriously doubt, I am consulting my banker...

RACE 10: Forest Melody outclasses them all.
And at 4-1!

RACE 11: Wine on the Porch. Race was a bit longer, fractions a bit better than Lotacat.
Another at 4-1