HAWTHORNE, OCTOBER 20

$14 bet
$12.60 returned.


It's a day of cheap racing, with lots of low claimers and maidens.

MORNING LINE FAVORITES RATED

1: *Lucky Libby, who tends to place will be seriously overbet. True odds 5-1
*Elmira, 5-month layoff, sharp work, new trainer, mediocre jockey, 4-1.
Good exacta play, though.
* Circular Reasoning, new trainer, has shown no good dirt speed.
All failed.

2: Colonel Tom drops precipitously into maiden claimer. 1-1.
No thanks at 3/10, and besides, he placed.

3: Keystone Kid, reclaimed by the 33% Catalano barn. Catalano lost the horse for $35,000 and gets him back for $10,000, now runs him for $5,000. Is he shopping the horse or purse-hunting? Well, if he wins the race and the horse is claimed for $5,000, Catalano doesn't lose money. There's a lot of speed in this race, and Keystone probably benefits from a pace battle. 6-5.
Paid $3.80

4: Why So Blue. 3-2. Toss that last race on poly. Could be a major bargain since many bettors will downgrade him on that 9-length deficit in the last race.
Paid $4.60

5: Trifecta play. There's no separating the top 3 contenders, none of whom should be a true favorite.
Wildman Mac, if in, 4/1 (scratched)
Zara's Storm 7/2 (scratched)
Paddywack 6/1
Exacta play if Wildman Mac scratches.
Paddywack paid $4.20

6: Maiden turf route for state-bred fillies. Does that say longshot to you? There's no genuine favorite. Longshots:
*Anger Rising, 111@83 but declining form, 5-1
*Miss She Gone, 108@73 6-1
*Great Lady Claire 110@71. Emigh can ride turf, unlike most jockeys in the race. But this horse is 0/16, with 10 finishes in-the-money. 6-1
*Wildwood Peekaboo 110@71, claimed, improved by trainer with poor turf record. 8-1
*She's a Tough Cat 109@68, improved nicely once she tried Hawthorne turf. 8-1
Great Lady at 3/1.

7: Stetter Junior. Jamie Ness brought this 6-year-old veteran of 55 races back from a horrible finish to a win. Morning line says 5-1 against a repeat, we say only 3-1. Fiddler, the ML favorite, is listed at 4/1 but tends to finish 2nd, so might be in exacta. True odds on Fiddler: 6-1. His win in the last race came after a pace meltdown.
Neither.

8: At $28,000, this allowance is the richest race on a blue-collar card. But a $25 exacta in a cheapie is exactly as good as a $25 exacta in the BC Classic.
Cure and Jaybird's Miracle in an exacta box.
Cure won, exacta failed.

9: Another longshot race. No horse worth less than 4/1.

*Justin Evans brings Running the River (117@86)in from a Canterbury summer. Chicago being the center of the known universe, Hawthorne bettors underplay such shippers. The 8/1 ML may be fair, but if it goes north of 12/1... Evans is a 4/1 trainer and his jockey is wonderful on front-running speed horses.

*Mr Dor (118@94) claimed, raised and laid off, has been running well on poly. 4/1 would be break-even.

*Poor Medicine Eyes doesn't know where he's sleeping lately, being claimed every fifteen minutes or so. Lousy jockey, lousy layoff trainer, but has turned in some monster races at Hawthorne.

*My Calabrese (117@81) is speedy and deserves better than 15-1 ML.

*Iron Rogue (118@98) Huge win last after pace meltdown, but is a 5-1 lifetime horse. Has probably given his best already, and will be bet down off that last win. Is definitely the class horse in here, tho.

Jamie Ness claimed and dropped Road Show (116@89). The $7,000 he would lose on the claim would be more than made up for by the purse, so the move makes sense. Ness and his jockey Paul Nolan win at a rate of 20%. Still, Road Show ought to pay 5/1 to be profitable.
Iron Rogue at 2/1.