BELMONT OCTOBER 20

2 wins for $28.00 total.
$24.00 bet


1: Expect the End and Merriweather Jessica in a box.
Bingo! $16.00

2: Post Exchange and Alejandros in a box.
No bingo.

3: Hot chalk: Big Truck (119@96) worth 3/2. ML lists at 1/1. No bet at that price,and it's likely to be lower. Every single one of these horses is a burst-from-the-gate type. And they're two-year-olds. Big Truck won't find it so easy to get the lead from the outside post, which compromises his chances.
Other contenders.
*Dazzling Derek 120@92 the choice if going at ML of 6/1 and Big Truck is odds-on.
*Giant Moon 114@96. Nice sprint victory, but probably needs another race.
Giant Moon paid $9.80. Who the hell bet Big Truck at 3/10?????

4: Light Tactic (117@93) at a better price than ....
Ice Cool Kitty (119@94) Toss the Beldame, and you get Kitty at this distance and track. She won by wiring a very slow pace. She won't be worth even money today.
Light Tactic blew by a medium pace for his score, and went away by nearly 5. Worth a bet if she drifts up to 9/2 or so.
*Entry Stolen Star (117@92) and Artistic Express (116@96) are perfectly capable of winning here, and may pay 8/1.
Zero.


5: Hot chalk: Jessica's Justice. All the way down to 1/1. Nedjima's hot in the race too, so maybe Jessica, if the fave, gets a place bet.
Both hated the soft turf.


6: Factual Contender, 4/7 on the turf...
not J'Ray, who is 0/3 recently off layoffs.
Factual placed.

7: Anybody's race.
*Stormin Normandy (120@100)
*Posted (120@104)
*Gold and Roses (120@105)
*I'm a Numbers Guy (119@97)
*Ferocious Fires (120@99)

Whaddaya gonna do with five true contenders and no superfecta to play? No, I'm not buying a $120 trifecta box. I'm going to take the best odds I can get, and I suspect they'll be on comebacker Ferocious Fires, who has never lost a race despite some really awful trips, and who has won off the layoff before. He's listed at 8/1. He is the ONLY horse to have won a tough race in open company.
Ferocious Fires paid $12.00

8: Longshot race: At least six real contenders, and so it stands to reason that the sensible bettor demands 5/1. In order of preference:
*Gimme Credit 121@100 has won two open handicaps, and finished tough in a G3
*Red Zipper 120@96, won $100k BEL state, ran tough against English Channel, Better Talk Now in the Manhattan.
*Bestowed 119@99 Won a pair of open allowances at MTH, LRL. Dominguez up, and he's the best turf rider in the race.
*Pays to Dream 119@97, won a fairly slow restricted $80k at SAR
*Al Basha 119@91 won a cheap state allowance at SAR.
*Dave 121@100 gets up for place or show if pace is torrid.
We picked Gimme Credit at 6/1 and lost.

9: Hot chalk: Indian Hawke. Dutrow claimed and the horse woke up to Secretariat-type win in last. Fave Naughty New Yorker's wins were against plodding paces, and he is due for a regession.
The chalk crumbled.

10: A scramble, but we can play the dime super here:
Solvent, Raynicks Fan, Dubliner, Tobruk.
$2.40 down the tubes.