BELMONT OCTOBER 13

It's going to be a day of longshots. The very best horses are resting up for their turn at The Shore. There is very little hot chalk and an awful lot of dubious favorites...

Median odds of the winners in the 10 races was 5.15/1. It is normally 3.10/1

1: Tenacious Star a cold favorite. 7/2 at best. Moneymoneymoney seems best of a slow bunch. 6/1.
Tenacious scratched, so we'll never know. Money finished 3rd at 5/2, odds way too low, so passed.

2: Truth Rules and partner will probably go odds-on, but not because of me. 2/1 would be fairer. Entries are ALWAYS overbet.

Odds-on entry won, but so what, at 4/5.


3: Ah, a second chance for the fabled Green Monkey. I think he needs another race.
Joppa Flat's is worth 5/1, but absolutely loves to finish 2nd, so place only.
Brogue with Joe Bravo might be worth 6/1.
But there is no reason to bet any short price horse in this race.
Bettors cannot resist a hyped horse. The Green Monkey went off at 1/1 and looked ever worse than in his debut. It was kind of a sad spectacle, really. At best, it could be an object lesson for those owners with too much money and not enough horse sense. Brogue scratched. Joppa Flats paid $3.60 to place. Up $16.

4: Gigli, 9 years old, is looking for his third in a row. He's 2/1 in the ML, but I wouldn't plunge at anything less than 4/1. Exacta: Gigli, Mascot.
*Gigli 117@97.
*Sabre Baby 116@91, big drop. Dutrow comeback would be a bargain at 8/1.
*Mascot 116@90. Obviously as good as Gigli last time. 4/1.
*Privy Seal 116@89. At 10/1 good exotic bomb.*Dynaglider 116@85. Rojas wins 4% on turf.
*Sweet Grass Creek 115@86. 6/1, and a chance to hit board with Bravo atop.

Pushed off the turf, Gigli and most others scratched, so we passed.


5: One of those miserable affairs in which there'll be all sorts of New York tricks, every horse running with some kind of x or a attached to its number, you never know who is really trying to win and who's out for exercise, all kinds of scratches and screw ups. Or maybe they carded this race to see how many miserable trainers could sign up...
Play Howdy... even money if in. Otherwise at tossup betweeen Dr. D.C.F and Sky Dragon, but look for 5/1 absolute minimum.

Only Dr. D.C.F. paid that well, and he won by a neck. $12.60. Up $132.

6: Dutrow drops Ferocious Won into a cheap conditioned claimer. Worth 2/1 but no less. Bizzy Trick is the backup horse, and possibly exacta partner.

Ferocious Won dropped to 8/5. Bizzy Trick won at 9/2.

7: Favorite In the Spotlight is very weak, really a 4-1 horse. Pick a longshot.
*In the Spotlight 114@85. Luzzi a negative on turf. Runs well behind pace and this is a sprint. 4/1 true odds.
*Beneath the Crown 113@83. Another plodder. Only win was after pace meltdown. 4/1 true odds.
*Highly Spoken 112@78. Good horse in the hands of lousy trainer, jockey.
*Burn One, Turn One. 113@83 Asmussen+JR on a comebacker, worth the 6/1 ML

Mondo Diverso surprised us, winning at 13-1. Up $112.

8: Motor West is listed at 5/2, and should be bet big if that price.
Motor West 115@90 but must beat the speed bias.
Any Which Way 115@85 and out of last. Mediocre trainer; sprints aren't JR's strength.
*5/1 Winaway 116@93 Not without a shot... but four slow-paced races in a row he has faded in the stretch. Shorter distance could help with that.
*10/1 Smoking Warrior 116@ 99. A chance to wire the race... a very promising horse who went sour, and is now back from layoff. Trainer is 9% off layoffs.

Motor West lost at 5/2. Up $92.

9: THE ATHENIA ... 8.5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF
Those who missed Dance Away Capote at 9/1 last time will be plunging at even money or worse this time. She's worth 1/1, maybe, but no less.
Predicted order of finish:
* 8/5 Dance Away Capote. 123@106. Needs an ultra fast pace to win, last race was hot, hot pace and led to a career-high Beyer. There is exactly one speed horse in the race, so the pace may be slow.
* 2/1 Criminologist. 120@100. Has a lot to prove against the better class of horses. Not proven above handicaps. But he will be in the best position to win after Beautiful Danielle gives up.
* 7/2 Fantastic Shirl 120@100. Has run a little better than Criminologist in several graded races.
*10/1 I'm in Love. 119@97. Luzzi is not much of a turf rider but this horse could surprise in the minor positions.
*15/1 Mahbadi 118@96. Jersey Joe is a great turf rider and doubt he will finish last.
*6/1 Beautiful Danielle 120@90. Absolutely no shot unless they shorten the race to 5F.

STRATEGY: Capote, Criminologist, Shirl in a trifecta box.

Our trifecta was spoiled by the most likely spoiler, I'm in Love. Up $62.


10: Royal Spaulding and Frozen Prospect in a boxed exacta.

Frozen Prospect weakened, up $42 at the end.