BELMONT, SEPT. 8

LOOKS LIKE A LONGSHOT DAY TO ME....

1ST: Run Red Run has the speed points, and Coa, a 25% jockey on pace setters. Need 3/1 and might get it since you have to toss his last race, a sprint, to see the good one. Martial Asset fills out exacta. Won and paid $7.20.

2ND: Need a longshot in this Maiden for the kiddies. Cherokee Speed at 15/1 has the early stuff, a sharp workout, a race behind him, and trouble in his last. Finished 4th.

3RD: Hot Chalk: Saratoga Kaz at anything over 1/1. Scratched.

4th: Unigold. Trainer sucks, so does Unigold's last race at Hoffa Memorial Downs. But the horse is 2 for 3 on this exact course, and both times Jersey Joe was in the irons. Bravo is a 20% turf jockey, and the morning line is 6/1. Luzzi up, showed.

5th: The front is not the place to be on the Widener Turf. Vivacious Vivian won't be up front until the last few strides. Desormeaux is a 20% turf rider. No other horse ran anything even close to Vivian's last in terms of either speed or class. She came to the gate balky and sweaty and predictably enough, faded.

6th: Ain't no speed in this sprint, where the speed bias is overwhelming. I absolutely loathe the ridiculous name of the #8 horse, the favorite, so I'd go on Winaway to win the late cavalry charge. I still hate that awful horse with the awful name.

7th: The Garden City. Rutherienne is the hype horse, so that means she'll be nasty on the tote. Is the ML on Sharp Susan really 8/1? With Desormeaux and Mott? Are you kidding? On July 27 Rutherienne beat her by only a half length when Sharp Susan charged from way back 4-wide. Susan was better that day, and these horses are essentially equal. The pace scenario favors Valbenny at 5/1, but a California horse in his first time at Belmont? Not me. Susan ran a good one and showed. Rutherienne had nothing.

1-- Missvinski. Visiting from France and I hope she sees the Statue of Liberty.
2-- Sharp Susan 120@99 Underrated and proven capable of winning 2 in a row.
3-- Street Sounds 120@92. Running out of gas and probably needs a rest.
4-- Costume. Just off the boat.
5-- Bit o Whimsey. No, it was a ton of whimsey to enter this outclassed girl.
6-- Valbenny. 120@99 Think of the carbon wasted flying her out from L.A.
7-- Alexander Tango. Horse has a shot, but with Bridgmohan, world's worst turf jockey?
8-- New Edition, 119@97. Race of her life last time, losing to Sharp Susan by 1.5 lengths. Nowhere near as bad as the 15/1 ML suggests.
9-- Chestoria. What is Bruce Levine smoking?
10-- Rutherienne 121@99. Everybody's favorite, a horse beautifully managed by Clement, with 7 wins in 8 races all over the nation, and the turf jock supreme in the irons. BUT that win at DelMar was a romp past a pace-meltdown AND was the great race of her life. I think she regresses, and at a short price. Sure I'd bet her at the 7/2 ML but you ain't gonna get that.

8th: The Ruffian. Take D Tour vs. Ginger Punch. Not much to win either way. I'd bet on whichever one offers the best price, because this is a racing luck race. Wrong! Ginger Punch much the best over laid off Tour.


1- Rahy's Appeal. Gomez, blinkers, 119@92.
2- Ginger Punch. 125@106, Frankel's engineered 2 monster wins in a row.
3- Miss Shop 124@102 and sharp now.
4- Take D Tour. 125@106. Barely beat Ginger last time they met
5- Teammate. 1000/1.


9th: Man O' War: Hot Chalk: Shamdinan, especially if over 2/1. But.... but... but.... Marsh Side is a curious longshot. He's 15/1 and gets Desormeaux, an excellent turf jockey. His last turf race was a monster just miss in a Grade 2 in Toronto. His late pace in that race was faster than any of these have EVER managed. His race before that, 11 furlongs on the Poly, was against tougher competition than its $125k price tag indicates. An absolute steal at 15/1. What was I smoking?

1: Dr. Dino 120@102, in tight, 3 wins in La Belle France
2: Sun River 123@105, toss rainy last, Gomez!
3: Grand Couturier 124@103, Borel's a dirt rider.
4: Trippi's Storm 122@104, tough.
5: Shamdinan 123@104 won in rain, nothing special in Ireland.
6: Marsh Side 121@109 plus a monster on poly plus Desormeaux!
7: Yellowstone, first US after graded just misses in Angleterre.



10th: Full field, turf, Allowance Level One, should be a fair race with no pronounced biases.

EARLY PACE:

2: Brushed Prince, 30/1. Jockey a turf nightmare and trainer no help either. Pressed lazy pace for a perfect trip maiden win at Saratoga in last race. Far outclassed here. 112@77. Right.

3: Really Rollicking, 8/1. Set a slow pace in last but was passed in stretch. Jock and trainer a plus on turf. Maiden win was on yielding turf. Will fight for the early lede but there'll be too much competition and he'll slip back. 113@80. Exactly

4: Kick Up Your Heels, 6/1. Doing better with current trainer. Best similar: 114@84. Has run 3 good races in a row and last was a nice one despite trouble. Beaten lengths in last disguises true form, so will be a bargain and is definitely a contender. Yup, fifth but 2 lengths out.

5: Kill Devil Rum, 12/1. Good turf trainer adds blinkers, which may help. But had lots of trouble in last two races and did not fight thru it. Jock a negative. His maiden win was an easy wire to wire on the rail. Best similar 113@75. Could surprise at a big price with blinkers, but I doubt it.
Right.

9: Manhattan Mack, 9/1. A proven fader, always finds trouble, poor trainer. Why does Gomez, the best turf jockey, get this horse? Best similar: 112@79. No chance. Right.

10: In the Spotlight, 10/1. Desormeaux a huge plus, was up there for this horse's only win, and is 20% on the turf. It can only help to get rid of the miserable Samyn. All 3 BEL races have been very good. Had wide trip in last at the Spa and gave up mid race after a good fight. A definite contender. 115@84. Wrong.

12: Highly Spoken, 20/1. Two starts for a 5% trainer. Best similar: 114@79. Top turf jock. Could be in the exotic mix. Placed at $29.75

LATE CHARGERS:

1: One Good Man, 12/1. Life record: 27-1-6-5., and with a trainer and jockey who are about average on turf. Gets the rail but will fall back and need to thread or veer for the late charge. Has never done so. 114@78 Good 4th at $16.70

6: Brazos, 9/2. Won maiden, "buried inside" in first allowance try. Luzzi not a great turf jockey. The maiden win was on "good" turf. Might have a chance if field was less crowded. 113@78 Really have to wonder about that low ML. Exactly.

7: Keen Irish 6/1. Veered around the pack in only race and drew out for a big win. Will probably improve in 2nd life race after 3 weeks to recoup. Absolutely could repeat against this mediocre field. 113@80. Showed, strong.

8: Saturday's Cat, 20/1. Absolutely miserable. Switches to a lousy trainer. Maiden was won on a wet turf on the 15th try. Owner and trainer should be arrested for making this poor animal run when so hopelessly beaten. Might have a chance at Penn National on a slow Tuesday night against high-weight Arabians. Right.

11: My Man Lars, 4/1. Nightmare trip in Saratoga and placed anyway. But 0 for 6 in this class. Bejarano has a big reputation, but a mediocre turf record. The trainer is just okay. But on the plus side, most of his recent races have been against much stronger fields. On the minus side, there'll be a huge field for him to fight through. Has a chance. 116@82. Won as favorite, $2.90.

BOTTOM LINE

4,7,10,11. Each "should be" about 4-1. Any at 6-1 or over is highly playable.

So I knew there were 4 horses that could win, and a fifth (#12) to mix in the exotics.

Dutch the 4: $7.80 for $8.
Place bet 5: $28.20 for $10.
Show bet 5: $17.00 for $10.
$2 Exacta: 4x5 $204 for $40
$2 trifecta: 4x5x5 $1037 for $200.

WPS: $53 for $28.
Exotics: $1241 for $240.

Notice that you get about 1/1 on the WPS
And 4/1 on the exotics...

The REALLY valuable insight was that Highly Spoken was way underlaid at 20/1.
... and that Manhattan Mack, 3rd choice, was a stinker that the crowd like strictly because of Gomez.