CHURCHILL DERBY DAY

Score for the day:
4 wins in 12 races
$31.40 for $24.00 bet
$1.31 ROB


Race 1: Ginger Punch, drops from graded place, will be odds-on.
Paid $2.60.

Race 2: Little Nick, 2-1
Paid $5.80

Race 3: Cute Cakes, 5-2
Nope.

Race 4: Next Adventure, 7-2, unless Minister's Appeal gets in.
Showed, $3.40

Race 5: Ah Day, 5-1.
Placed $3.00.

Race 6: Magnificent Song, 3-1.
Out.

Race 7: Silverinyourpocket, 9-2. A best bet.
Won, $11.60.

Race 8: Pussycat Doll, 2-1, but worth a bet at even-money.
Placed $3.20.

Race 9: Better Talk Now 2-1.
Finished 4th.

Derby: Hard Spun, 15-1.
Placed, $9.80.

Race 11: Betterincludeme 3-1.
Won, $10.40

Race 12: Beautiful Danielle, 8-5
Placed, $3.20

DERBY CONTENDERS
2-- Curlin. Obviously a talent, but unfortunately he's the hype horse. If he does win, he won't pay much. The Derby is the ultimate chaos race, and with a field this crowded, 6-1 would be the absolute minimum acceptable odds.
3-- Zanjero. Has lost to 4 Derby runners. In the Blue Grass, showed after perfect trip.
4-- Storm in May. This closer has a real chance if the leaders run out of gas.
6-- Cowtown Cat. Off one decent Graded Stakes win? You gotta be kidding.
7-- Street Sense. The real thing but will be overbet.
8-- Hard Spun. Here's my bet, especially if 10-1 or better. He's five for six, including a win in the slop, and it may be sloppy on Derby Day. His only loss was a bad-traffic thing. His victories have been awesome.
10-- Teufelsberg. Seven horses in here have beaten him at least once.
12-- Nobiz Like Showbiz. Another real thing. Only losses have been rough trips.
14-- Scat Daddy, another real thing.
16-- Circular Quay. Watch out because this horse's record is better than it looks. He has run into an awful lot of bad racing luck.
18-- Any Given Saturday. Ran tough with Street Sense but that race seemed to deflate him.

In short we have Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Nobiz, Scat Daddy and one or two dark horses. That gives us natural odds of about 7-1. Anything less, on any horse, is unacceptable. If it's wet on Saturday, Hard Spun, Tuefelsberg and Scat Daddy have an edge, each having won their only off-track races.

My money would go for tickets on Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Nobiz and Scat Daddy as long as they were over 7-1. At $20 each, that would give me $100 and a pretty good chance at a profit.