Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Friday, May 25, 2007

ARLINGTON MAY 26

Storms are forecast, and if they rumble in too badly and mud up the track, we're betting light or not at all...

1-- Bohemian Rain. Finally at a winning level. 2/1. Rival Princess Paster won a last time in a similar race, but has no experience over Polytrack and is 0/4 at Arlington. If you only consider their dirt races, Bohemian has a class edge.

2-- Metts Ready makes huge drop after running two tough calls in his last. Would be a bargain at the listed 8/1. This Maiden race features three droppers from Special Weights. C. Saga Ryder was no factor in his last. Wild Comedy has never been within 5 lengths of the battle in any race. Horses that are far out of it in all their races don't "wake up" in their first dropper. That leaves Metts Ready. Ah, deductive logic!

3-- Pletcher's Pleasant Strike will be about 4/5. A no brainer against this field. He has been fighting in much tougher arenas: Belmont, Gulfstream, Keeneland. With only 7 in the gate, traffic won't be an issue, as it so often is on the turf.

4-- Cool Mountain at 5/2, Slate at 5/1, or an exacta combo of these. Cool Mountain has one race and it was a beauty. Slate is a bit slower on the uptake, but both have been facing faster horses at better tracks, and should find the Chicago crowd fairly easy pickins.

5-- Majestic Pegasus is the 7/2 ML. This horse is worth even money if healthy, and that is the question. A year ago he was a promsing horse, headed for an allowance career. Now trainer Dale Bennet says he'll sell this $75,000 horse for $17,500. The winner's share of the purse is $8,000. The math don't add up, do it? That's why I'm going for Sampras, an improving horse whose drop into this class makes a lot more sense.

6-- Ask the Lord. 2/1 ML, is 10 years old, and has won 20 times in 69 starts. That's pretty impressive. He's a closer and the speed has been dying at Arlington. Ask the Lord is 2/5 on artificial surfaces, and he sure knows how to win.

7-- Trigger Happy, 3/1, just might beat this field of unaccomplished grass fillies. But I wouldn't bet on her at those odds. Noted Professor and Cause She's Crafty are both worth a scan of the tote. Look for 4/1 or better on any of those three.

8-- Without A Doubt won his only polytrack race, is in great form and is running his perfect distance.

9-- Lewis Michael but no lower than 2/1. Has a nice Grade 2 race over Poly. The other class runners are doubtful on either form or surface.

10-- Slow Walkin' John has become really comfortable on turf, with good finishes lately at AP, HAW and FG. Look for 4/1 odds, and if they go too low, check El Condor to place. On the turf, he's an even-money shot to come in second, and a 12-1 shot to win!

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