GULFSTREAM SATURDAY, FEB 3.

Weather may be a factor so be warned.

RACE 3: The obvious exacta is Kelly's Landing [4] and Sir Greeley [5]. Maybe too obvious. I will be watching the tote for Keyed Entry [1]. This horse is coming off a rough summer. But he's ready now with a bullet work. And he's turned in 3 really nice graded stakes performances. Jockey-trainer win rate is over 30%, Best of all he is the only true speed in this sprint. Not out of the question that he runs away at a big price.
Keyed Entry paid $5.80
Strengths: Class dots... only speed... 2/2 at GP... top $.... bullet work... trainer lines of almost 30%... jt line of 31%... 2/2 fst sprints.

Post race comments:
"That's the way he's supposed to run going short," said trainer Anthony Sciametta Jr., "He's a tough sprinter and very tough on the lead."

"We all made a mistake trying to do the Triple Crown thing with this horse last year," said (owner) Jack Wolf (of Starlight Stable.) "It was like trying to fit a square peg into a round hole."

Now that's something of note -- an owner admitting a mistake.

Keyed Entry had 3 sprint wins, including a grade 2 at Beyer 110, when the Derby Dream began to take hold. His connectinons stretched his race out from 7 furlongs to 8.5 in the Gotham.
He lost by a neck.
Then he showed in the 9-furlong Wood Memorial.
The owners/trainers did not seem to notice he wasn't carrying his speed. They entered him in the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby and then the Dwyer, and he was now losing by 30 and 40 lengths. Their ambitions had almost ruined the horse. He is a sprinter.
They gave him time off and retrained him over the fall, ending with progressively faster works of 4 and 5 furlongs, and he came back to win.


RACE 5: Reata's Rocket, or so you'd think. But not at a short price. I say 3-1 is fair value. I hope the crowd is fooled by Cowtown Cat's 92 Beyer. I'll also watch Adore the Gold, who would be a bargain at four or five to one. I say Adore and Reata hook up in a speed duel.
Adore the Gold paid 7.20.

The crowd did bet the beyers, making Cowtown 3/2. Cowtown did have a win at the distance and at GP. He did have a great trainer line. But this was a G2 race, and his only win was a $40k level one allowance.
Meanwhile, Adore and Reata's both had classier wins. Adore had a bullet work last.
Adore had two classy wins however, while Reata's only classy win was in the mud at Monmouth. Adore had better Beyers by far.
Adore went off at 5/2, Reata's at 11-1.
Adore had 3 wins, the most of any, and was just 6 points off in Bxx. Moreover, Adore was #2 in M-5, and showed early speed in all four of his races.

RACE 6: The question is, what price Miesque's Approval? With five strong graded races in a row, a proven late run on grass, and as class of the field, we should concede the race to him. I'm thinking a tri with Miesque alone on top, and then Jambalaya and Host. These are clearly the classy three.
Miesque wasn't even a factor.
I missed the winner, Giant Wrecker, who wired the field at 16-1.
He had few outstanding credentials. Interestingly enough, Giant Wrecker was fifth in the betting, and that spot is normally a bargain at 10-1.
I would say he got out in front and just "stole" the race. Two mediocre horses got out on the lead. Miesque's Approval failed to factor in. Host and Jamabalya just missed. It happens.

Giant Wrecker, a homebred trained by Mark Hennig for owner Edward P. Evans, paid $34.20 after covering the distance in 1:39.70 over a firm course.

"He was a different horse in the paddock today than before his last race when he was all wound up and wringing wet," said Hennig. "He's a little high-strung, like most of the family, who all seemed to get better with age.

"I was hoping Javier might be able to get him covered up early so he'd relax, but I told him if he went to the lead not to grab and anchor him, because you can't win that battle, and he did a great job."

Miesque's Approval lagged at the rear of the pack and was never a serious factor in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf. It was his first start since the Breeders' Cup.

"He just wasn't himself on Saturday," said trainer Marty Wolfson. "He got a little excited when a couple of the outrider's ponies got too close to him as the field was moving onto the turf course prior to the race."

Jockey Eddie Castro, said Wolfson, "even jumped off briefly at that point. He just was never focused after that. The good news is that he came back from the race just fine."

RACE 7: Scat Daddy and Nobiz Like Showbiz. They have the Beyers, the early speed and the class. It's so obvious that the exacta ought pay oh, $6.
NoBiz showed up, Scat Daddy only showed.
I bet Scat Daddy because I figured him and NoBiz to be equals, and so I played the odds. But this was the wrong thing to do. Nobiz had the edge in med-5, last Beyer, Bxx and fractional timings and trainer line. Scat Daddy had the edge in J/T. But not by much. In short, only the hope of a better payoff led me to Scat Daddy, when Nobis had so many edges. for instance, Nobiz had never run under 90, Scat Daddy had done that twice.


RACE 8: Naissance Royale. Period. This horse has improved his position in the stretch for 10, yes 10 races in a row. May go place, depending on depth of the pool.
He paid a princely $4.20
He had the edge in class, and was the best stretch runner by far. He had the number 2 latest beyer. Bxx #1 by 13 points. Top class by dots and by $. Wins at GP and at the distance. 2 wins at better races. Good trainer and JT lines. $ advantage of double over next best horse, J'ray, who placed.

RACE 9: Remember the BC Classic? Bernardini was pennies to the dollar and Invasor was 6-1. Now it's the Eclipse winning Invasor who's going to run off the board. His credentials are awesome. 9 wins out of 10 races. Beyers off the chart. Four grade one wins in a row -- and every one of them despite some kind of trouble. But I've learned not to bet the hype horse. Yes, Invasor has the best chance, but the odds will be horrendous. Magna Graduate and Strong Contender are the best besides him. So an exacta and/or tri may be in order, or a place bet, or even a few bucks on a flyer to win on Magna or Strong.

Note this quote from Invasor's trainer:
"It's a handicap and he's carrying 123 pounds, and that's always a concern, but you can't argue the weight when you've got the Horse of the Year," he added. "If he gets beat by a lightweight, so be it. Our main goal right now is Dubai."

Hmmm. A grade-1 prep race.

This is my daily superfecta, adding AP Arrow and boxing all four. Remember, even great horses can have an unlucky race.

The scratch of Stong Contender killed my exotics. Invasor ran a thrilling, heroic race as the 2/5.
Invasor had twice th e$ of any rival... a 24-point lead in bxx... 6 point lead in last Beyer. 4 straight wins including 1 at the distance. All four wins were off troubled trips. Excellent trainer and jockey lines. The only thing missing was a win at GP.

For the card:
Cashed: $17.20
Bet: $16.00