Race 2: More Angels, if as expected, she goes off at a better price than Lady Le Belle, the morning line darling. 3-1 would be nice on More Angels, and would compel a bet. Angels and Lady are equal horses, in our opinion, and Lady is likely to be bet down to pennies on the dollar.
.... Surprise: Lady Le Belle had the better odds, 9/5, and won.
Race 4: Freedom's Cat if we can get anything like the morning line of 6/1. Carla Gaines knows how to train horses for turf routes, which she's winning at above 25%.
..... The Cat was never in it.
Race 5: Old Ed. Art Sherman is making one of his patented moves in this maiden claimer. Old Ed is well worth the ML of 6/1.
...... Boing! $10.20 in the bank.
Race 6: Adance or Cotorra, whoever gets the most generous tote. Cortorra is 2nd in the ML, and would be a good bet at 3/1 or above. Adance, demand 2/1 or pass.
... Both were beat by the 5/1 Bit of Folly.
Race 7: LaMottie at 6/1 is the choice over Big Promise at 3/1, but as always, all depends on the tote. Bobby Frankel is running the favorite, Naughty Rafaela, but we're not buying, especially not at the cheesy price that's likely to show up on the tote. Naughty is the DRF's best bet, and you know what that means: 35% chance to win, and 100% chance of an underlay.
This race is anybody's, including I Can See, who's 20/1 in the ML.
.... Naughty was second at 6/5. Big Promise won at 3/1, and our La Mottie dropped back in the stretch.
Straight betting: $13.80 for $10.00.
Exotics:
Race 2: (1) More Angels and (6) Your Quote underneath in the exacta with the 2, 5, on top of each. That is: 2,5 over 1. and 2,5 over 6.
.... Nada.
Race 4: Super box 4,6,7,8. Boxes are usually not smart bets, but these four horses are all of equal ability.
.... Nada.
Race 6: Rolling double, 8,5.
... Nada.
Race 7: Exacta 2,3,5 over 6 and 2,3,5 over 7
... Nada.
Exotics: Minus $14.40.
Won: 13.80 Bet 24.40.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
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