CROWD HYSTERIA

Probably every sentence about horse racing ought to begin with the word probably.

What that probably means is: There's no such thing as a sure thing.

The time to remember that is when the crowd gets hysterical over a horse. Usually this hysteria is triggered by a gigantic Beyer.

It happened this week at Laurel, in the 11th race, but it happens many times every day in racing, and it signals an opportunity.

A few minutes before post, Cherokee's Boy was toted at 1/2. He had a Beyer of 103, and his closest competitor had a figure of 92. That horse, Due, was pegged at 11-1.

The crowd was betting the Cherokee's Boy was 22 times more likely to win than Due. The true odds of the second-best horse in the race (as measured by Beyer) are 4-1.

Due won and paid $21.80.

Cherokee's Boy had everything going for him. Two wins in his last 3, a long string of good races including four Beyers over 100. He had five times the lifetime earnings of any other horse in the race. His trainer and jockey were top-end.

Probably no horse is worth backing at odds-on.

Many players know this, but it's easy to get swept up in the "sure thing" mentality that surrounds some horses going to post. As the odds sink, more players look over the horse, like what they see and jump aboard, hoping for a winner.

In all but a few races, even the super-duper hype-horse favorites don't have much more than a 45% chance to win. This means at even money or lower, some contender is underbet, offering real value.