Horse racing picks, odds, predictions and comments

Friday, November 24, 2017

DEL MAR NOV. 25
-------------------------

ONE $12K claimer.
4- Airfoil <22>
6- Private Prospect <22>
8- Indavidualist <22>
All three are about equal in accomplishment and worth about 4/1. Private Prospect was pulled up last time and is now listed at 15/1.

TWO A maiden turf for 2-year-old fillies. A lot of talent in here.
5- Bunny Yogurt <22> 2/1
7- Paved <20> 5/1
8- Scat Home Lady <20>  5/1

THREE A $16K claimer. None of these four would be a surprise.
1- Tribal Jewel <27> 2/1
3- Beaumarchais <26> 4/1
7- Dukes Up <26> 5/1
8- Saint Dermot <25> 6/1

FOUR A mile on the turf for $40K horses.
2- Spanish Hombre <28> 2/1
5- Eldtrich (27> 4/1
13- Terry's Tom Cat <26> 6/1
The bettors may miss Eldtrich, since he has no speed figures off his Euro races.
The 20/1 morning line would be a steal. He has run tough in 5 of his 6 races, and is as classy as any in here.

FIVE The Native Diver G3 at 9 furlongs
1- Mubtaahij <34> 2/1
2- Top of the Game <34> 5/2
Looks like a two-horse race.

SIX A sprint for $20K Cal-breds.
3- Street Fighter <25>  2/1 Huge fig at DMR.
5- Swiss Minister <25> 4/1 
8- Getoffmyback <24> 6/1
Swiss Minister is listed at 8/1, which would be a bargain. He's not ridden by a top jockey, and that will be good for his tote.

SEVEN Hollywood Derby G1, 9 furlongs on the grass
4- Sharp Samurai <32> 2/1
7- Mo Town <30> 4/1
Not much else in here, although on grass you never know.

EIGHT Maiden with loads of first-timers. Pass.

NINE The Jimmy Durante G3 turf mile
13 Fatale Bere <30> 8/5
By far the most talent, may be overlooked because of outside post.





Friday, May 20, 2016

CANTERBURY MAY 21

RACE ONE
Beat #7 Blazing Angel
Looks much the best, despite layoff, in weak field
But stone closers don't do well at CBY.
Try:
#1 Hey Funny
#6 Bold Prospect Win 6/1
No bet:
#3 Zan Creek (9/2) fades horribly

RACE TWO
With #1 Combine #6 Or SundaySword of David
The two top trainers, Mac and Diodoro, go at it.
#3 Harnersbach has a shot if the above two commit suicide.
Missed 11/1 shot Congratulate Me.

RACE THREE (turf)
Play #7 Rhetorical miss at 7/5
Best trainer and turf rider.
#3 Friarcracker has a shot, but need way better than 5/2
#4 My Crazy Dayse could surprise at 10/1 for new trainer.
Misses Jiquick at 2/1

RACE FOUR "Ladyslipper"
Combine
#3 Sky and Sea win 3/5
Has a tendency to lead, weaken late
#4 Rockin' the Bleu's place
Probably enjoys a subtle class edge.
#1 and #6 for exotic partners.  #1 Show at 15/1
Tri paid $10 for $1


RACE FIVE
Beat #3 Follow the Spiders
#4 if 6/1 (class)
#2 if 8/1 (speed)
#8 if 12/1 (speed)
Missed firster Some Say So at 7/1

RACE SIX
Beat #3 Rodeoactive
#7 Kenna Mae could be a big surprise > 16/1
#5 Unbridled Mayhem >5/1
#1 Victory Ice >6/1
Missed firster #9 at 8/5

RACE SEVEN
Beat #8 Fear Fighter
Mac's debut colt will be over bet.
#2 Drinkinatthebar, a comebacker, 4/1
#1 Dakota Native ran well on last fast track.
Missed #10 at 4/1

RACE EIGHT (turf)
Beat #4 Northhampton Kid show at 4/5
0-for-12 and lags early.
#3 Glory Kingdom, sneaky at >81
#2 Sioux Hockey 7/2
Missed #8 at 6/1

RACE NINE (starter allowance)
Beat #2 YaYa Gottabedatway
Trainer got a spectacular win at 6/5 at Hawthorne.
Then he faded at Arlington 13 days ago.
In a field of 10, he's only got about a 20% chance.
#5 Take It Like A Man, only recent winner of a starter allowance 4/1
#1 The Third Ace, 3-for-10 at the distance.
#3 Aunt Ruby's Kitchen, 2 sneaky longshot wins at OP.
#7 Word Racer, Mac at a price, layoff, drop in class.
#10 Gentle as a Breeze, new trainer, and 15 career wins.
Missed #4 at 3/2


Friday, May 06, 2016

CHURCHILL, MAY 6

1st Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 7 Furlongs Dirt.
1 Front Row Debbie FTS
2 Naylor T18
3 Gurlin 12
4 Burma Road 8
5 Black Diamond Girl 15
6 Linda Mimi 11
7 Modify A*** 1/2
8 Learning Curve C
9 Garden Goddess 14

2nd Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt.
1 Vickie Wins C&&
2 Blast  8
3 Lady Day Blues 19
4 Vivid Storm  13
5 Covey Trace 17
6 Tia Flor 8
7 American Holiday 9/T31
8 Bold Quality B#
9 Conquest Serenade A*** 4/5

3rd Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 1 Mile Dirt.
1 Paid Up Subscriber A* 2/1
2 Rose To Glory 8
3 Academic Break 11&
4 Gamblers Rose 7
5 Contrasting C/T30
6 Street Song 7#
7 Hone In 10
8 Twenty In One 10
9 Misleading Lady B/T21

4th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt.
1 Afleet Lady 9
2 Divine Elegance B
3 Lemon Drop Belle 17
4 Firsthand Report C/T25
5 Yankee Lass 15
6 Smart Emma 14
7 Family Tree A***&# 3/5
8 Avisionofchocolate 10/T20
9 Bonita Cat 17
10 Sugar Cone 10

5th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 1 Mile Turf.
1 Lowen Warrior 21
2 Caribbean A /T24
3 Uncle Guy 5/T23 6/1
4 Dasaateer 17
5 Tom's D'etat R1/T17
6 Jacob Rocks 8
7 Top Of The Game 16
8 Commend C/T22#
9 Pitch Count 14
10 Walker's Way 21
11 Go Navy Go 9
12 R H Is A Runner 23&&
13 Baires Boy 8
14 The Player B

6th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. La Troienne S. (Grade 1)
1 Curalina B&&& 2/1
2 Sheer Drama A***T19
3 Angela Renee 9&&&
4 Brooklynsway 16
5 Penwith C&&
6 Engaginglee 14
7 Theogony 11

7th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
STAKES. 7 Furlongs Dirt.  Eight Belles S. (Grade 2)
1 Marquee Miss 8
2 Jade Princess 10/&&
3 Summer Reading 12&&&
4 Put Da Blame On Me 15
5 Carina Mia A* 3/5
6 Blip N' Th Bye 7.
7 Stageplay C/T21
8 Nickname B/T21#

8th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
STAKES. 5 Furlongs Turf. Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. (Grade 3).
1 Power Alert 7 (6/11 Distance) /T23
2 Summation Time B (2/5 Distance) /T23
3 Mongol Bull 29 (5/13 Distance)
4 Rocket Heat 11 (3/5 Distance) 8/1
5 American Sailor 15 (2/5 Distance)
6 Alsvid 8#
7 Hootenanny C (2/2 Distance)
8 Weast Hill 12 (FG) T/25
9 Speightsong 20
10 Latent Revenge 21 (3/6 Distance)
11 Something Extra 7 (1/8 Distance)
12 Guns Loaded A
13 Sylven Park 41 (2/6 Distance)

9th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Alysheba S. (Grade 2).
1 Cat Burglar B*/T24
2 Natchez 13
3 Departing 8
4 Eagle 3*
5 Noble Bird 5#
6 Majestic Affair A*/T18
7 Top Billing 15/T20
8 Face Of Winner 17
9 Majestic Harbor 7 9/1
10 Midnight Storm C&

10th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Turf.  Edgewood S. (Grade 3)
1 Harmonize C/T16*
2 Born To Be Winner 29&&
3 Nodiac B#*
4 Auntie Joy 28
5 Ava's Kitten 14/T18
6 Jeremy's Legacy 19
7 Outsider Art  26
8 Enjoy Yourself 21&&
9 Believe In Bertie 27/T22
10 Catch A Glimpse A* 3/2
11 Sky My Sky 29
12 Adore 19 FG
13 Heavenly View 18/T20

11th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1)
1 Terra Promessa 8/T17
2 Weep No More 15
3 Lewis Bay C/T18*
4 Go Maggie Go 16
5 Dream Dance 17
6 Mokat 16
7 Mo D'amour 11/T20
8 Royal Obsession 10/T17
9 Paola Queen 16
10 Venus Valentine 18
11 Rachel's Valentina B/T20#
12 Cathryn Sophia A** 9/2
13 Land Over Sea 8
14 Taxable 17/T17
15 Dothraki Queen 19

12th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 1 Mile Turf. MAIDENS
1 Castlefinn 27
2 Vagabond Prince R1
3 Classy O'prado 38
4 Zap Cat 60
5 Conquest Stormy A/T15 3/2
6 Will Did It 12/FG
7 Long Ago 18
8 Dontmisstheprize 28
9 Astute Warrior R1
10 Purely Grateful R1
11 Henry Eight 24&&
12 Who's Your Drama B&&&
13 Alaskan Prince 23
14 Big Joe Candy 26/C25

13th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, May 6th, 2016
STARTER ALLOWANCE. 1 Mile Dirt.
1 Zander Zone (2) >14/1 BARGAIN, 8/1
2 Bankers Holiday (4)/C25 >13/1 ! FAIR AT 13/1 
3 Morning Buzz (1) >7/1  ! FAIR AT 7/1
4 Stonescape (2)/T16 >7/2 2ND FAVORITE, TOSS, NEED 8/1
5 Frenchman Bay (C) /C23 >10/1 BARGAIN, 7/1
6 Kiss Limit (A) /C18 >5/2 FAVORITE, TOSS NEED 6/1
7 Meanbone (B) /T16# >9/1 BARGAIN, 7/1
8 Susan's Reward (11) >30/1 TOSS, 55/1
9 Rest Assured (8)/T16 >15/1 TOSS, 55/1
10 Mr. Right (4)&* >5/1 TOSS, 13/1
11 Bud's Bayonet (4)&&* >32/1 BARGAIN. 13/1
... This race had an unusually weak favorite, on the board at 5/2
but laboring under fair odds of 6/1
We found four bargains on the board.
$8 wagered brought in $30 when the #1 won.
or a true payoff of a little over 5/2
At 13/1 true, #11 was an unlikely winner and might
have been played to place... not that it mattered.
We had an average 11/1 payoff on the 3 dutchers
to win... and a 40% chance of cashing.
Bottom line: 40% chance to make a 250% profit


Saturday, April 30, 2016

BELMONT PARK, APRIL 30


(+ speed/class advantage)
(& layoff advantage)

1st Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
ALLOWANCE. 1 1/16 Mile Turf. Purse $80,000. INNER TURF
2 Theresas Candyrose (10) +++ Junior 27% turf.
3 Dea (9)
4 Thundering Sky (4) + first grass
5 Secure Access (4) &&
1 Southern Gem (8) &&
6 Pushme Pullyou (1)
1A Rock Me Again (8) ++ &&&
>>> 44 points
*1/1A if coupled 9/5
*2 Theresas Candyrose 7/2

2nd Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
CLAIMING. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $25,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
2 Saint Finian (2)
3 Puppy Manners (1)
4 Stay Tuned (1)
5 Mack Miller (1)
6 Clowney (2) Picks up top turf rider.
7 Castaway (4) Top turf rider.
1 Bad Hombre (9) +
8 Aleander (10) ++
1A Nevada Kid (19) +++ 31% trainer angle
>>> 49 points. 
*If the 1-1A entry holds, fair odds: 4/5

3rd Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
CLAIMING. 7 Furlongs Turf. Purse $40,000. (UP TO $7,200 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.
3 Undertherain (1)
4 Tent City (3) &&
5 Doukas (9)
6 Hatta's Appeal (12)+ &&
7 Aussie Prayer (12)++ &&
8 The Name's Paddy (1)
9 Sweet Corinna (17)++ 3rd race back: 21%
10 Your Turn (1)
>>>56 points
*9 Sweet Corinna 5/2
*6 Hatta's Appeal 7/2
*7 Aussie Prayer 7/2
*5 Doukas 5/1

4th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $60,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
1 Lady In Shades (2)
2 Cheering For Al (3) R1 17%
3 Princess Chris (1)
4 Cats Halo (5)+
5 Super Allison (10)++ bad layoff angle.
6 Picco Uno (5) &&
7 Eighth Commandment (1) R1
8 Diamonds Please (1) R1
9 True Charm (11)++
>>>39 Points
*9 True Charm 5/2
*5 Super Allison 5/2
*4 Cats Halo 7/1
*6 Picco Uno 7/1

5th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
ALLOWANCE. 6 Furlongs Turf. Purse $62,000. INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
2 Gran The Man (7)+ Servis at 23% on turf
3 Bajan Summer (6)
4 Dearie (1)
5 Copernicus (1)
6 Wicked Freud (11)+
7 Black Tide (26)+++ &&
8 Unstoppable (4)
9 Borrowed Dreams (1)
>>>57 points.
* 7 Black Tide 4/5
* 6 Wicked Freud 9/2
* 2 Gran The Man 7/1

6th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
MAIDEN CLAIMING. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $46,000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
1 Vandalize (21)+++ &&&
2 Porch Pounder (23)++
3 Gloves Off (7) Picks up top turf rider and 26% trainer angle.
4 Tricky Citizen (6) Angle: 40% first time drop to maiden claimer.
5 Policy Portfolio (3) R1 19%
6 Do Share (1) RQ1
7 Pure Excitement (5) First drop to maiden claiming: 29%
8 Tea And Cricket (1)
9 Cornedbeefncabbage (3) R1 14%
10 Our Karma (13)+
11 Heliodoro (10) 
>>> 93 points, and longshots galore.
*2 Porch Pounder 3/1
* 1 Vandalize 7/2
* 10 Our Karma 6/1
* 11 Heliodoro 8/1
* 3 Gloves Off 12/1

7th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
ALLOWANCE. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $80,000.  FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.
1 Groupthink (8)+ &&
2 Bellamy Way (20)+++ 
3 Saratoga Wildcat (11)++
4 Rally Cry (11) &&
5 Mister Monolo (6) &
6 Sea Raven (7)
7 Waymond Boyd (5)
8 Rich 'n' Tuck (1)
>>> 69 points.
*2 Bellamy Way 5/2
*3 Saratoga Wildcat 5/1
* 4 Rally Cry 5/1

8th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
STAKES. 7 Furlongs Turf. Purse $100,000. Elusive Quality S.. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
1 Mosler (2) &
2 King Kreesa (15)++ &&
3 A Lot (11) &&&
4 Bye Bye Bernie (1)
5 Green Mask (24) +++ &&
7 Sandy'z Slew (1)
8 Kharafa (9)
9 Spartiatis (1)
10 Big Guy Ian (2) ++ first grass.
12 Aztec Brave (2)
>>> 68 points.
* 5 Green Mask 9/5
* 2 King Kreesa, Belmont monster,  7/2.
* 3 A Lot 5/1

9th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, April 30th, 2016
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 6 Furlongs Turf. Purse $75,000. INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
1 Wyeth (3) R1 20%
2 Gee Pea Ess (22)++
3 Conquest See Ya (10) first grass
4 Mystery Solved (2) R1 12%
5 Jess I Am (11)
6 These Blues (1) first grass
7 Drop Shot (19) +++ first grass
8 Henrik Rules (11)
9 Naqafeer (3) R1 19%
10 Kettles On (1)
11 Mr. Neetie (17)+ Velazquez, first lasix.
12 Silent Mission (4) trainer, jockey 20%
>>>100 points.
* 2 Gee Pea Ess 7/2
* 7 Drop Shot 4/1
* 11 Mr. Neetie 5/1
* 8 Henrik Rules 9/1
* 5 Jess I Am 9/1
* 3 Conquest See Ya 9/1

Friday, April 22, 2016

AQUEDUCT APRIL 23

1ST AQU APR 23     STATE-BRED
6 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
MAIDEN
CLAIMING 40,000-ALL PURSE $41,000 (44 )
>>>Nothing special from the 3 virgins so, not much of a betting race.
#6 may be the bargain, with a strong layoff trainer. Watch the board.
Always watch the board.
  4  FLEETING GOLD                 15  =2/1
  5  EXCLUDED                           12  =5/2
  6  IN CONDITION                     10  =7/2 Might wire 'em. Did at 8/5
  1  SUMMER BOURBON           FTS
  2  DILLON STRUCT GOLD      FTS      
  3  RED HOOK EXPRESS          FTS        
    
2ND AQU APR 23     
1 MILE DIRT   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP
CLAIMING 20,000-ALL PURSE $40,000 (24 )
>>> Doesn't look like too much for #5 to handle.
  5  PASS THE DICE                 10 = 7/5 Win at 3/2
  7  HURRY UP ALAN               4 =5/1
  2  LONGFOR THE CITY         3  =7/1  Obvious speed but not at 2/1. 
  1  LUCKBOX SAM                  2     
  3  PUPPY MANNERS              1     
  4  HOWL                                   2      
  6  SUE THEM ALL                  2       

3RD AQU APR 23     
1 MILE TURF   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
MAIDEN
CLAIMING 40,000-ALL PURSE $41,000 (  )
>>>This is the first longshot race, but much depends on the scratches.
#4,10,6,7,2 all perfectly capable. Watch the board.
  4  MOEGAN AVENUE          23 
 10  DATAMINING                  20 win at 5/2        
  6  GREYJOY                          18     
  7  CATAMOUNT                   17       
  2  LIAM'S PRINCE                12     Best closer and drops from MSW.      
 14  GREYSCALE                    11       
 15  INVISIBLE CROWN        10      
 16  AFTER CHEYENNE        10     
  1  HABITS                              FTS 16%    
  3  BALFE'S CORNER             2     
  5  MOONLIGHT PARTY        2     
  8  WHISKEY REBEL             2       
  9  HIYO                                   2         
 11  SUNRISE WARRIOR        2          
 12  IM A PRANKSTER           2       
 13  SPEIGHTMAN                  2       

 4TH AQU APR 23     
1 MILE DIRT   THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
ALLOWANCE
PURSE $72,000 (31 points)
>>> #6 looks really tough in here.
  6  LITERATA    11  = 9/5  Look for her in the garden spot.
  3  FLICK OF AN EYE  7 =7/2  win at 5/2      
  4  JCS AMERICAN DREAM  4 =7/1    
  7  IN SPITE OF MAMA          3 =9/1  
  1  FAST RETAILING              2
  2  A FEW GOOD FRIENDS   2         
  5  REGIA MARINA                2  
    
5TH AQU APR 23     STATE-BRED
1 1/16 MILES TURF   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
PURSE $65,000 (57)
>>>#12 looks much the best.
 12  STARTUP NATION  25 = 6/5 Strong in the lane.
  3  UNCLE SIGH  12 =9/2     
  7  MARK MY STYLE   6 = 9/1 win at 5/1
 10  FINAL CHAPTER   5 = 11/1
  4  OWNER GENTLEMAN       3          
  2  GLOWING EMBER             2     
  6  FOREVER UTOPIA             2 
 11  FRONT                                 2     
        
6TH AQU APR 23     
6 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
CLAIMING 14,000-ALL PURSE $26,000 (54 points)
>>> Likely a good payday here, all of the top four are capable....
None should go off at a cheap price.
  8  SURFSPUN  11 = 4/1 Speed duel? 5/2
  9  IDEAL QUALITY  11 = 4/1  Best closer. 5/2    
  4  TOUCHDOWN  9 = 5/1  Speed duel? win at 9/2
  5  GUNLOCK   9  = 5/1 place at 8/1
  1  ANDREW'S GOT ZIP  6  = 8/1 Speed duel?
  2  TOTTIE ROYER  2        
  3  HOWIE'S TIZ   2        
  6  WORBOTHOR  2      
  7  SUCKITUPBUSTER 2        
    
7TH AQU APR 23     
1 1/16 MILES TURF   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS 
NONGRADED STAKE
PURSE $100,000 (61)
>>> Again, 4 capable horses so don't play the chalk.
#7,2,3,8.
  7  UNBRIDLED DADDY 15 = 3/1
  2  HIGHLAND SKY 14  = 7/2 Gets tough near wire. Win at 6/5
  3  DIXIE RUNNER  12 = 4/1       
  8  RAPPEL  9   = 6/1
  6  HIGHLY PRIZED  4 
  1  IN EQUALITY   2         
  4  TOO DISCREET    2  
  5  MIGHTY MO       2      
  9  TOUGHEST 'OMBRE 2  

    
8TH AQU APR 23     
6 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED FILLIES 3 YEAR OLDS 
NONGRADED STAKE
PURSE $100,000 (41 points)
>>> Three very strong fillies and a couple of capable longshots.
Whoever's the chalk will be a bad play.
  3  FROSTY MARGARITA 9 Never a bad race in 8 tries.   7/2
  1  SHE'S ALL READY   9   Layoff return, top jock.  7/2 
  8  BEHRNIK'S BANK    8  Weak layoff trainer.  4/1
  6  WONDERMENT        5  Is 3-for-4 with top connections 7/1 
  5  MADAME MAYBRY  4 Sharp now. 9/1
  7  RIOT WORTHY         3  Just won maiden. 15/1
  2  LIBRETA   2   Layoff return, top jock. Win 13/1
  4  GREGORIAN GOLD 1  Looks overmatched.
  
9TH AQU APR 23     
1 1/16 MILES TURF   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
CLAIMING 25,000-ALL PURSE $34,000 
>>>Lots of scratches will effect the strategy for both bettors and jockeys.
If #13 goes off at the predicted 20/1, that might be a bet.
  5  HUSHHUSHMUSHMUSH = 11 Maybe underneath. 
  9  LOOSE MONEY= 10 Drops to right class.    
 13  INTERIOR SECRETARY = 10 Maiden winner, first grass.    
 11  HUMBOLDT N FROST= 7 Layoff may help 
 10  GEO NIKO= 6 Great breeding, but not at 5/1    
 12  SIR MAURICE= 5 Is 1-for-31      
  3  CONSTANTINE= 5 Weak layoff trainer.     
 15  FREUDIAN LIGHTS= 4  Weak trainer.
  2  PIONEER OF WIFI=3    
  4  MOMMA'S MARK= 3     
  6  NATIVE GEORGE= 3  First grass.      
 16  CHASIN CHAMA = 3  Weak trainer.
  7  IRISH JADE  =3  Maybe underneath.
  1  PATROLIKEACHAMPION= 2  
 14  CODY'S NOTES=  2  Weak layoff trainer. Win at 30/1
  8  BALDONNEL= 1 Strong layoff trainer, but...   


Thursday, April 14, 2016

EXPER


5 Apologynotaccepted  28

7 I'll Take Charge 26

2 Mercer Mill Mae 244 Improv 25 
8 C Islandsurprise 223 Strike Back Fast 216 Purim's Danawa 239 Contrasting  191 Makin' Sense 12

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

RACING APRIL 15

    Gulfstream Park April 15

    
ENTRIES 1ST GPX APR 15     
7 1/2 FURLONGS TURF   THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
CLAIMING 16,000-ALL PURSE $18,000 (12:55) (10)
  1  GATO DEL CIELO            18       
  2  DEE'S CAUSEWAY            18        
  3  JUSTGIMMEAKISS            19      
  4  STARSHIP KAHLUA           18      
  5  HOPEFAITHJOY              22      
  6  DADDY'S PRIDE             16    
  7  MAKE BIG MONEY            15        
  8  MY SONG VENEZUELAN        17  
  9  MISS NALENEE              18    
 10  ALCALDESA                 17

    

    
ENTRIES 6TH GPX APR 15     
5 FURLONGS TURF   THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
PURSE $42,000 (03:40) (11)
  1  GINGER RUSH               23       
  2  STREET CASH               22      
  3  LADY LYDIE                10    
  4  GELATO GAL                R1       
  5  TIZ TWICE                 R1         
  6  MISS BOB                  11  
  7  CONQUEST SARAHSTAR        22          
  8  TIZ MADNESS               19    
  9  MICHAELSLITTLEALLY        21        
 10  IANA                      R1     
 11  ALABAMA ASHLEY            22   

    
ENTRIES 7TH GPX APR 15     
6 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
MAIDEN
CLAIMING 12,500-ALL PURSE $15,000 (04:13) (10)
  1  MISS NIAGARA              15          
  2  GIULIETTA Q                6       
  3  MACROECONOMICS             5        
  4  DIAMOND TOUR               8      
  5  STARSHIP MAIDEN           16     
  6  TRANSCENDENT FAITH        12       
  7  LIGIA ELENA               15     
  8  UNKNOWN                   18       
  9  GLOTONA AGAIN             13         
 10  CALYPSO MUSIC             11           

Keeneland April 15

ENTRIES 4TH KEE APR 15     
6 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP
CLAIMING 10,000-ALL PURSE $19,000 (02:45) (11)
  1  KICKING KITTY             17     
  2  JUDSONSPRETTYGIRL         17  
  3  BONNIE BLUE EYES          21       
  4  GINGER STONE              18      
  5  RANGER'S DREAM            16       
  6  CALL ME ANNA              20      
  7  RUSTICANA                 23      
  8  OUR ADIEU                 19         
  9  MISS THANG                19        
 10  THIRTY EIGHT PLUS         12      
 11  ANGELIC SCORE             25         

    
ENTRIES 5TH KEE APR 15     
5 1/2 FURLONGS TURF   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS 
ALLOWANCE
PURSE $62,000 (03:18) (11)
9 Urban Bourbon 26
8 Peppermint Zip 25
5 Expected Ruler 24
4 Oscar Mike 24
7 John Q. Public 23
10 Vittorioso 22
1 Leroi's Thrill 21
1A Ready by You 19
2 Mykonos 19
3 Bourne Country 12
6 Silent Mission 10
ENTRIES 7TH KEE APR 15 7 FURLONGS DIRT THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP ALLOWANCE PURSE $62,000 (04:24) (9 ) 1 MAKIN' SENSE 12 L118 HERNANDEZ B J JR NAFZGER CARL A 2 MERCER MILL MAE 12 L118 ALBARADO R J LOVELL MICHELLE 3 STRIKE BACK FAST 12 L118 LANERIE C J WILKES IAN R 4 IMPROV 12N L123 LEPAROUX JULIEN R ARNOLD GEORGE R II 5 APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED 11N L120 LEZCANO JOSE MOTT WILLIAM I 6 PURIM'S DANAWA 12 L118 MURRILL MITCHELL YARBERRY LAURA JAN 7 I'LL TAKE CHARGE 12N L118 GRAHAM J QUAST TODD 8 C ISLANDSURPRISE 12 L118 TORRES F C MCGEE PAUL 9 CONTRASTING 11 L118 SAEZ LUIS DRURY THOMAS JR

Oaklawn Park April 15

    
ENTRIES 1ST OPX APR 15     
6 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
CLAIMING 10,000-7,500 PURSE $25,000 (01:30) (11)
  1  QAADIH                    12   L118     OCAMPO ISRAEL        HALL JOHN L         
  2  JET TRICK                 12   L119     COURT J K            FRAZEE LARRY        
  3  HITHEREDARLING            12   L119     WETHEY FLOYD JR      MCNAIR SCOTTY D     
  4  SYLVAN HILLS BOY          12N  L111     THOMPSON T J         CATES AL            
  5  BEAR'S THE NAME           12   L119     PURCELL KELSI        STIVERS BRIAN J     
  6  IFYOUWINYOUGETMORE        13N  L118     SANTANA RICARDO JR   ASMUSSEN STEVEN M   
  7  SMILING CHARLIE           11   L119     CANCHARI ALEX        ROBERTSON MCLEAN    
  8  SANTORINI SKY             12   L119     DE LA CRUZ WALTER    PUHL KIM            
  9  ROCKSTAR JAM              12   L124     FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVA HARTMAN CHRIS       
 10  SPEEDY GUNZALIOUS         11   L116     BIRZER A E           VAN BERG JACK C     
 11  NO SUPERVISION            12   L124     VAZQUEZ R A          VILLAFRANCO FREDERIC

    
ENTRIES 5TH OPX APR 15     
6 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 4 YEAR OLDS AND UP
STARTER ALLOWANCE
PURSE $27,000 (03:19) (11)
  1  QUITTIN TIME              10   L119     DE LA CRUZ WALTER    LYNN JEFFERY C      
  2  TAKE IT LIKE A MAN        10   L115     SANTANA RICARDO JR   DIODORO ROBERTINO   
  3  RHETORICAL                09   L119     FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVA DIODORO ROBERTINO   
  4  QUICK SAND                11   L115     COURT J K            FRAZEE LARRY        
  5  THE LONE ROO              12   L115     CANCHARI ALEX        PUHL KIM            
  6  STAR'S VALENTINO          09   L123     LOVEBERRY JARETH     PETALINO JOE        
  7  SUSPECT A STORM           12   L114     QUINONEZ B           MARTIN TIMOTHY E    
  8A ZONED IN                  12   L123     VAZQUEZ R A          VILLAFRANCO FREDERIC
  9A DEHAVEN                   11   L119     VAZQUEZ R A          VILLAFRANCO FREDERIC
 10  TIREE                     09   L115     BIRZER A E           VAN BERG JACK C     
 11  MAGIC COMMAND             11   L115     HILL C               MASON INGRID        
A-COUPLED: DEHAVEN AND ZONED IN

    
ENTRIES 6TH OPX APR 15     
6 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
CLAIMING 50,000-40,000 PURSE $39,000 (03:46) (12)
  1  PRECIOUS PASSION          11N  L119     FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVA RIECKEN BRUCE       
  2  GREELY'S STRIKER          12   L116     QUINONEZ L S         THOMAS GARY A       
  3  JERI BELLA                13   L115     THOMPSON T J         ASHAUER NORMAN      
  4  STREET THUNDER            13   L118     VAZQUEZ R A          GORDER KELLYN       
  5  BIKINI CREEK              11   L117     HILL C               WITT ERNIE II       
  6  SCADADLE                  12   L119     BIRZER A E           RICHARD CHRIS       
  7  PINK BUBBLE               12   L122     CANCHARI ALEX        ROBERTSON MCLEAN    
  8  HOOSESSENTIAL             12   L119     LOVEBERRY JARETH     HUGHES DENNIS P     
  9  EURODEVILWOMAN            13   L115     DE LA CRUZ WALTER    VAN BERG JACK C     
 10  AVALANCHE GIRL            11   L119     QUINONEZ B           MYERS KELLY MAUREEN 
 11  ERVSAYSLETHERGO           13   L118     SANTANA RICARDO JR   ASMUSSEN STEVEN M   
 12  FLEET GREY                13N  L115     GEROUX FLORENT       ASMUSSEN STEVEN M   


    
ENTRIES 8TH OPX APR 15     
6 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
PURSE $79,000 (04:42) (12)
  1  SWEET PLATINUM            10   L124     GARCIA MARTIN        HARTMAN CHRIS       
  2  LAUGH AT LIFE             10   L119     QUINONEZ B           MARTIN TIMOTHY E    
  3  GNARLY HARLY              12   L119     HILL C               ANDERSON DOUG L     
  4  POLITICAL JUSTICE         09N  L119     ROCCO J S JR         CALHOUN WILLIAM BRET
  5  WINGS LOCKED UP           12N  L124     CORBETT G W          STUART CLINTON C    
  6  OR SUNDAY                 11   L124     FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVA DIODORO ROBERTINO   
  7  COVERALLYOURBASES         12   L124     CANCHARI ALEX        RITCHEY TIM F       
  8  FIRE MISSION              10   L119     LANDEROS CHRIS       RICHARD CHRIS       
  9  TAPIT WICKED              12   L119     SANTANA RICARDO JR   ASMUSSEN STEVEN M   
 10  THE ROCK ROLLS            10   L119     BIRZER A E           CHLEBORAD LYNN      
 11  OUR DOC TANNER            12   L119     VAZQUEZ R A          CATES AL            
 12  BO TALON                  12N  L119     COURT J K            FIRES WILLIAM H     

ENTRIES 10TH OPX APR 15     
5 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED OPEN 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
PURSE $76,000 (05:38) (11)
  1  HEAT ROAD                 13   L118     DE LA CRUZ WALTER    CATES AL            
  2  I AM                      13   L111 XX  CRUZ NARCISO C       IVES TOMMY          
  3  RAPID RED                 12   L124     LANDEROS CHRIS       ROBERTSON MCLEAN    
  4  BUD DEE LOVE              13   L118     GARCIA MARTIN        HARTMAN CHRIS       
  5  EMOJI MAN                 13   L118     COURT J K            LUKAS D WAYNE       
  6  FRONT POCKET MONEY        13   L118     GEROUX FLORENT       ASMUSSEN STEVEN M   
  7  EL VENUE                  13N  L118     CANCHARI ALEX        MORSE RANDY L       
  8  WAR RIDE                  12N  L124     SANTANA RICARDO JR   ASMUSSEN STEVEN M   
  9  MAX'S CAYMAN CAT          13   L118     BIRZER A E           PETALINO JOE        
 10  JUJU'S SONG               13N  L118     CORBETT G W          VON HEMEL KELLY     
 11  RED FERN                  13N  L118     VAZQUEZ R A          FORSTER GRANT T     


Tampa Bay Downs April 15

ENTRIES 8TH TAM APR 15     
6 FURLONGS DIRT   THOROUGHBRED FILLIES AND MARES 3 YEAR OLDS AND UP
MAIDEN
CLAIMING 12,500-10,000 PURSE $12,500 (04:29) (9 )
  1  GOOD RIDDANZ DRICA        13   L116     FIGUEROA LUIS        HERNANDEZ SANDINO R 
  2  BABYRAE                   13   L118     RODRIGUEZ E D        STIFANO RAYMOND E   
  3  CASSIDYS JEWEL            13   L118     ALLEN R D JR         JACKSON GARY G      
  4  AROMA BLUE                13   L118     CAMACHO SAMY         PARRA HERNAN        
  5  DULCE VIDA                12    123     VILLA-GOMEZ H        BARBARAN HORACIO    
  6  GO CATRINA GO             13   L118     SANTOS ADEMAR        BARBARAN HORACIO    
  7  EXCLUSIVE BELLA           13N  L118     GARCIA GEOVANY       MCKANAS LEON J      
  8  FOSTERINGGREATNESS        13 + L118     EVANS CECILY         CEPEDA CARLOS A     
  9  MEYDENBAUER BAY           13   L118     MORALES PABLO        HELMBRECHT WILLIAM R

    


Thursday, April 07, 2016

KEENELAND HORSE RACING APRIL 9

It looks chalky out there. 
The weather may be a factor, but most likely, we're going to see a lot of low prices.
Win chances vary greatly by race but in general they are:

  • First listed 28%
  • Second listed 18%
  • Third listed 14%
  • Fourth listed 10%
If odds are listed, they are the expected tote board odds.
The points are meant to peak around 50, indicating the very best class of horses.
A horse that is more than 3 points lower than the favorite has a very poor chance of winning.

BET ALL: 38 BETS, $76.00
RETURN: $93.40

RACE ONE
#7-DAN THE GO TO MAN 41 >8/5
#4-DIVINE WARRIOR 38
#2-TORONTES 38 $17.00

RACE TWO'
#1-LIMOUSINE LIBERAL 48  >8/5 $3.40
#5-NILE OF THE HUNTER 47
#2-TWO WEEKS OFF 47

RACE THREE
This race and the next one have dominant favorites.
#10-LLANITA 40 >1/2
#12-NO FAULT 36
#7-PRINCESS SILVIA 28 $32.00

RACE FOUR
#1-MUTARAAMY 43 > 9/5
#4-FACTION CAT 39

RACE FIVE
#2-SYMPATHY 42 >9/5
#5-DEA 41
#12-BAI BAI BABY 40
#11-COLLEGE HOLLY 39

RACE SIX THE ASHLAND G1
#3-CATHRYN SOPHIA 50 >9/5
#4-RACHEL'S VALENTINA 50 >5/2
#5-CARINA MIA 47

RACE SEVEN, COMMONWEALTH G3
#9-HOLY BOSS 51 >5/2
#2-READY FOR RYE 50 >5/2
#1-CLEARLY NOW 49 >6/1

RACE EIGHT, SHAKERTOWN STAKES SPRINT
I cannot figure why the Morning Line hates the #11 at a 50/1 level. This is his first grass race, but he's won four times in eight tries, including two on the artificial surface. I'd guess the  bettors will drag him down to 15/1, but even at that he's a bargain.
#10-UNDRAFTED 52 > 2/1$9.00
#11-WOODLAND WALK 50 >15/1

RACE NINE, THE MADISON G1
Now here's a truly competitive race
#12-STOPCHARGING MARIA 54 > 4/1
#3-WAVELL AVENUE 53 >6/1
#4-SUNDAY RULES 53 > 8/1
#2-SHEER DRAMA 52 >10/1$8.40

RACE TEN, THE BLUEGRASS G1
#4-ZULU 50 >5/2
#14-MY MAN SAM 47 >4/1
#7-LAOBAN 47 >6/1
#2-DONEGAL MOON 47 >15/1
#6-BRODY'S CAUSE 44 > 9/1 $10.40

RACE ELEVEN
#5-REBELLE 38 > 3/2
#6-ALWAYS RIGHT 35 $13.20
#13-SHE'S SO FINE 35

Friday, April 01, 2016

HORSE RACING, GULFSTREAM, APRIL 2, FLORIDA DERBY DAY

[ ^ means expected tote, and is not intended as an indicator of fair odds.]

$68 bet all, 8 winners, $59.20 return


RACE ONE
(PICK3: 11*5 with 10 with 1*2*3*5*7 $10)
11-ARIPEKA 49 ^5/2 fair $6.80
5- GOLD SHIELD 45 (6/1 ML)
Shug come backer could score.
---------
8-INDIAN GUIDE 42
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE TWO
10-GEH SCHNELL 34 (12/1 ML)
Has been facing better than these
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE THREE
Best longshot race on the card.
1-RASTA RANT 42 ^3/1 fair
2-WILDCAT WISH 40 ^7/1 $7.20
3-COALMINER 40 ^4/1 $5.80
5-MACH MY DAY 40 ^11/1
7-JAMIE'S DANCER 39 ^11/1 fair
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE FOUR
Pass
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE FIVE, SKIPAWAY GRADE 3
Valid's top competitors have no graded races.
Expected tote: 1/2
5-VALID 53 ^1/2 $2.80
Rarely misses at Gulfstream
-------------------
1-TEAM COLORS 50 $3.00
Muddy win, layoff, class rise.
6-SAVOY STOMP 46
Wins and steps up in class.
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE SIX
(Pick3 9*11*4 with 7*5 with 1*4*8 $18)
9-CONQUEST STORMY 39 ^2/1 fair
Nice debut, time off.
11-GRAND NUENCO 37 ^20/1 fair
Breather after lousy race, sharp works.
4-TITANIUM HEART 37 ^17/1
Good closer, still learning
10-BERLINER 36 ^ 9/5
Could win, but not worth cheap price.

]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE SEVEN
7-OFF THE TRACKS 46 ^4/5
5-GOMO 44 ^8/1
O'Neil, not the best layoff trainer.
------------------
3-GO MAGGIE GO 42 $10.00
1-PAOLA QUEEN 40 $5.60
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE EIGHT
1-ALL INCLUDED 49 ^2/1
4-LONG ON VALUE 49 ^10/1
8-REPORTING STAR 49 ^7/1 $19.00

---------------------------
7-FORCE THE PASS 47 ^3/2 Bad bet
Layoff, and not even close to being best here.
5-SKY CAPTAIN 47 ^15/1
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE NINE
Pass
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE TEN
(Pick3 3*5 with 1*4*6 with 4*6*5 $18)
6-ANCHOR DOWN 51 ^2/1
3-GRAND SHORES 50 ^9/1 $9.40
5-DEFER HEAVEN 48 ^2/1
-----------------------------------
2-YOURDREAMSORMINE 45
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE ELEVEN
(Pick4 1*4*6* with 4*6*5 with 1*4 with 4*9) $36
1-CRISOLLES 48
4-PHOTO CALL 47 $2.00
6-MAXIMOVA 47
--------------
2-CELESTINE 46
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE TWELVE, THE HONEY FOX GRADE 2
(Pick3 4*6*5 with 1*4*7 with 4*9 $18)
4-SANDIVA 49 ^8/5
6-LADY LARA 47 ^5/2
5-TAMMY THE TORPEDO 47 ^6/1
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE THIRTEEN, THE PAN AMERICAN GRADE 2
1-KAIGUN 49 ^7/2 fair $7.60
4-GRAND TITO 48 ^5/2
-------------------------
Expect 8/5 odds and very bad bet.
7-WAKE FOREST 45 ^8/5 $4.00
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE FOURTEEN, FLORIDA DERBY
3/2 on each obvious horse would be fair.
But there's no way you'll get those odds.
"Never bet the hype horse."
4-NYQUIST 51 $4.40
9-MOHAYMEN 50
--------
2-FELLOWSHIP 44 ^ 8/1
7-TAKEITOTHEEDGE 44 ^10/1
3-MAJESTO 41 ^25/1 $11.00
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

Friday, March 25, 2016

HORSE RACING, FAIR GROUNDS, MARCH 26

RESULT: 49 PICKS, $98 BET-ALL
10 WINS 23%
RETURN $91 
($468 rolling pick-3, return $523)

RACE ONE
11-AIRBROOKE =85+9
Improving every race.
2-OPEN INTEREST =61
7-LIL OFF CENTER =60
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE TWO, STAR GUITAR
1-SUNBEAN =111+8 $3.00
Sharp works, speed on rail 13-for-22 career.
4-ONE KING'S MAN 105+1
3-STORMDRIVER =103+4
2-NEXT EVENT =103+1
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE THREE
6-NO DISTORTION =100+14 $3.60
$1 exacta paid $9.80
Always in stretch battle, will get lucky some time.
7-AIKEN'S ALLEY =89+6
9-AZTEC SENSE =87+6 place $5.00
$27 pick-3= 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE FOUR
2-BELOMOR =102+6
Front runner, may weaken late.
6-LET US BE GLAD =99+18 $2.20
Primed for layoff win.
10- NEXT EVENT =97+17
Good form and jockey.
9 -TRUE FLAT =97+9
Lousy turf trainer
$36 pick-3 = $12
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE FIVE
5-SEA VOW =99+9
4-for7 and early speed.
8-ICY GENTELMAN =96+11
4-for 8 and speedy.
1-MAGEEZ =101
Blow out win, but will be buried on rail.
11-HUNKER DOWN =90
$48 pick-3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE SIX
7-TUTTIPAESI =113+15
Bill Mott mare has won off layoff before.
5-CASH CONTROL =106+9
4-STOUPINATOR=104
$24 pick-3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE SEVEN, NEW ORLEANS HANDICAP
(Best longshot race on the card.)
4-MAJESTIC HARBOR =118
Just won a G3
10- EAGLE =115+4
Fabulous route jock, but unproven at distance.
3-JESSICA'S STAR =112
Versatile, good jockey and 12/1
9-FREESTYLER =112+5
10 wins but none at the distance.
8-MOBILE BAY =111+2
2-for-4 at the distance
1-INTERNATIONAL STAR =110+3
John R + 4-for-5 at FG.
$40 pick-3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE EIGHT, THE MUNIZ
3-CAN'T HELP BELIEVING =117+2
4-CHOCOLATE RIDE =115+17
Seems unbeatable but has lost 9 times, so...
1-TAKE THE STAND =111 $18.00
$1 exacta $46.60
2-ROMAN APPROVAL =111+6
10-WORLD APPROVAL 111+6 place $4.60
$30 pick-3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE NINE, THE OAKS
8-LAND OVER SEA =107+7 $5.60
Closer, loves to place.
4-STAGEPLAY =104+14
Just met first failure in a G2.
2-MIDNIGHT ON OCONEE =102+6
6-STREET FANCY = 100+6
$40 pick 3 = 0
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE TEN, THE DERBY
6 MO TOM =110+6
Late charger has't missed the money yet.
2-GREENPOINTECRUSADER =110+2
Biggest win was in slop, so...
1-GUN RUNNER =110+2 $9.80
3-for-4 with G2 win.
$36 Pick-3 = $182
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE ELEVEN
5-TOO DIM =112+1
10-HETAI =112+19
16 wins, layoff with excellent prospects.
1-JOCKAMO'S SONG =102+3 $15.80
$36 pick-3 = $126
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE TWELVE
8-JET BLACK MAGIC =102+7 place $3.00
In the money all seven tries.
2-OUR LADY ALLIE =97+7 $5.20
$1 exacta $6.80
Never a bad race.
1-THEGOODWITCH =89
9-AUNT NELLIE =87
$48 pick-3 = $120
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE THIRTEEN
12-SWEET ACCLAIM =103+22 $7.00
A long time off and a big drop in class. Many doubts.
6 MERCER MILL MAE =94
4-WALKING THE KITTEN =94+12
5-JOKASA =89+1
$48 pick-3 = $50
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]
RACE FOURTEEN
5 OUR WILD DANCER =86+7
Albert Stall and best speed last race.
6-SOUTHERN ARGUMENT =83+2
13 CLASSIC SOPO =76
9 CARMENS CATCHER 76 $20.80
$64 pick-3 = $53

Thursday, March 17, 2016

OAKLAWN PARK, REBEL DAY, MARCH 19, HORSE RACE HANDICAPPING FREE

]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

Expected (long term) win percentages:
  • Rank 1: 38%
  • Rank 2: 23% 
  • Rank 3: 12% 
  • Rank 4: 8% 
  • Rank 5: 8% 
]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]]

RACE ONE
8-CLASSIC ARCH 85
Mild drop, gotta score some day
9-SUN TSYZY 85
Obviously fit off last mile
11-SALLY'S NEWS 82
Got braver in last race
3-MAJESTIC MEGAN 78
Big drop may help

RACE TWO
1-WRATH OF RUTHIE 99
4/5 ML, and many questions
WIN 2/5
4-SWING IT DISH 98
Been racing way over her head.
PLACE 8/1
7-NORTHERN CONNECT 96
Meet easier; 20/1 juicy
5-FICTIONALITY 96
Ditto above, at 12/1

RACE THREE
6-LIMONTE 95
Big, hidden class drop
PLACE AT 5/1
8-LOCKER ROOM GUY 91
Assmussen claim and drop

RACE FOUR
11-BRILLIANT BELLE 81
Just missed after stumble start
4-PRETTY GREELY 79
Keeps Calvin, traffic last time
9-SKI TUNE 77
Meh. Long layoff, second race.
10-HEART OF A RANGER 76
Big class jump after just-miss.
PLACE AT 10/1
1-FAIRWAYGREEN 76
Placed debut, class jump now.

RACE FIVE
2-RHETORICAL 103
Sharp connections and win last
6-NOW AND ZEN 96
Tough at Oaklawn
10-SPANISH JAZZ 96
Powerful closer

RACE SIX
10-MY PAL PAUL 106
5/1 ML looks good
9-UNBRIDELD OUTLAW 100
Drop to claimer will help
PLACE AT 5/2

RACE SEVEN, THE AZERI GII
Time for a simple, straight trifecta?
7-UNTAPABLE 123
A monster in here
JUST MISSED AT 2/5
1-CALL PAT 109
The late charger
WIN AT 5/1
5-MESHELL 108
10-for-11 show chance

RACE EIGHT
1X-LOOKS TO SPARE 120
Classy, but questionable after layoff.
2 SMACK SMACK 113
8-for-20 career
6-FAR RIGHT 113
3-for-5 at OP
7-UPSTART 108
Ranks too low to be favored.
WIN AT 5/2

RACE NINE
7-KISS 92
Morning line fave
11-COTTON CLUB CUTIE 88
15/1 ML would be a bargain

RACE TEN (THE REBEL)
The Southwest contenders at it again
12-SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 110
Won Southwest
8-AMERICAN DUBAI 106
Showed in Southwest at 20/1
10-WHITMORE 106
Placed in Southwest
4-CUPID 101
7/2 too low for maiden winner
WIN AT 5/2

RACE ELEVEN
2-GOATS TOWN 97
PLACE 7/2
5-AMERICAN PIONEER 97
WIN 3/2
10-COLONEL DAN 97
FOURTH 5/1
7-BURNTWOOD 90
SHOW 9/1
$2 EXACTA BOX $9
$2 TRIFECTA $58
$24 SUPER $213

Friday, February 05, 2016

OAKLAWN FEB. 6.


10 0.4 2.4 29%
2 1.5 4 48%
9 3.6 7 60%
7 3.9 7 72%
5 5.8 15 78%
3 6.6 15 84%
8 7.0 20 89%
1 8.0 26 93%
6 8.2 26 96%
4 8.3 26 100%
     
5 -0.3 2.3 30%
1 1.3 4 49%
6 3.7 7 61%
3 3.7 7 74%
7 5.4 15 80%
8 5.8 15 86%
4 6.0 15 93%
9 8.1 19 98%
2 10.0 39 100%
     
3 -0.3 2.4 30%
6 3.3 7 42%
4 6.0 7 54%
2 9.2 7 67%
10 5.0 15 73%
8 5.7 15 79%
1 6.3 15 85%
7 6.2 19 90%
9 6.3 19 95%
5 7.2 19 100%
1 -0.2 3 29%
2 0.5 4 50%
4 0.6 4 72%
7 0.9 4 92%
3 3.6 10 100%
6 6.5 27 104%
5 14.2 111 105%
     
3 0.4 1.7 37%
9 2.7 4 55%
4 5.6 12 63%
11 5.9 12 71%
6 8.1 21 75%
12 8.4 21 80%
2 8.9 21 85%
10 9.4 21 89%
1 11.7 32 92%
8 13.8 32 95%
5 14.0 32 98%
7 26.5 64 100%
     
4 0.2 2.4 31%
2 2.1 8 42%
6 2.4 8 54%
7 5.2 8 65%
8 3.6 10 75%
3 4.3 13 82%
5 4.5 13 89%
10 4.6 13 96%
1 7.9 28 99%
9 9.2 42 102%
     
5 -0.5 2.4 29%
1 0.3 3.1 53%
4 1.6 6 68%
7 2.3 9 78%
3 2.8 9 87%
2 3.2 9 97%
6 9.1 51 99%
8 13.0 102 100%